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Europe IV: The Final Hour

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    Bercow quit.

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      He was overdue to resign, by his own admission. The prospect of having to sit in a GE - even if only a formality - to preside over this shower any longer, well...you can't blame him.

      So, parliament closes tonight. Just over a week since the prorogue intended to stymie debate and safeguard No Deal Brexit was announced and it's all blown up in Johnson's jowls quite spectacularly. No Deal Brexit now technically 'illegal', and him potentially forced to go begging to Brussels. Escape route vie GE blocked. Many senior Tories expelled causing massive resentment in the ranks. And already one cabinet resignation. This must be one of the more spectacular backfires in British politics since...well, since May called her snap election, and since Cameron gambled on Brexit in the first place.

      The country may be going down the pan but it's cracking entertainment!
      Last edited by Golgo; 09-09-2019, 17:26.

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        At the end of play Johnson has lost a vote which means he's officially been called upon to release all Yellowhammer documentation publicly by 11pm on Wednesday along with all information related to the planning of proroguing parliament. This includes any Whatsapp, Facebook etc messages as well. If they don't they could be found to be in contempt of Parliament.



        Lib Dems are set to confirm they will campaign under the promise to outright revoke A50.

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          Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
          Lib Dems are set to confirm they will campaign under the promise to outright revoke A50.
          Well, someone has to.

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            The most recent polls are out now, I've charted the last 5 from each of them. There are two that shows a dip in Tory in support is that from Survation and Deltapoll. Tory / Brexit loss / gains tend to mirror each other throughout (Deltapoll is an exception as shows Lab Gains from Con loses). It makes me think the "private polling" leak from Downing Street was a ruse to encourage the opposition to support a GE.



            I also looked at the DeltaPoll survey in more detail, the question about What Do You Think Should Happen Next caught my eye.

            Last edited by MartyG; 10-09-2019, 08:43.

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              And perhaps this chart gives an indication of why those figures might be the way they are ... this YouGov polling shows that the public think Johnson is more in touch with them than parliament (although neither carries the majority).

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                Tony Blair points out the obvious: The GE's are terrible ways of judging public preference on single issues

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                  Boris Johnson also rebuffs criticism of Parliament's five-week shutdown as a "load of nonsense".


                  'Johnson to discuss options with DUP leaders'

                  I guess the option he'd most like to discuss is "would it be possible for there to be another 20 or 30 of you please?"

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                    Cross party MP's are exploring the idea of proposing a Second Referendum between the options of Remain and... May's Deal

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                      Well if you rule out No Deal, those are currently the only two options.

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                        I honestly don't know why MP's remain so opposed to taking it to a second referendum. The argument over its complications is long past relevant given just how obscenely bad the situation has been allowed to get, any claim of democratic delivery is dead thanks to the tactics being used and as soon as Parliament got itself in a knot over it then it would have provided an easy out for the majority of MP's. Either you'd have had a Deal/No Deal versus Remain which could have been sold on the basis of it ratifying the first referendum based on the exact nature of Leave being known now or even a Deal/No Deal without Remain would have cut through the MP tangle whilst still delivering on the first Referendum - entirely moving Brexit forward according to the 'will of the people'. Instead it's literally the last thing being tabled and we're now facing a General Election based on the same argument which is in no way more 'correct' than running a Second Referendum, it's much worse really. If nothing else it just seems like another example of how poor the Tories are at handling it all.

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                            Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
                            I honestly don't know why MP's remain so opposed to taking it to a second referendum. The argument over its complications is long past relevant given just how obscenely bad the situation has been allowed to get...
                            I think it's because it reminds everyone of why it was a poor idea in the first place. Even if "remain" wins, it'll be by a modest margin, and then you'll have another ten years of Farage banging the brexit drum asking for a third referendum. This is why those are to be a "once in a generation" thing. Even on here, we've talked about how we feel it's inappropriate for the SNP to campaign for another indyref so soon after losing the last one; this isn't all that different.

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                              Originally posted by Asura View Post
                              this isn't all that different.
                              I would argue that it's very different in two ways. 1) This one succeeded so set something in motion whereas the Scottish referendum shut something down and kept the status quo. 2) Following on from point 1, the referendum was a vague concept with absolutely no vote on any particulars or even the reality of what was going to happen. We now have reality kicking in, a lot more details and actual options to vote on. So it's not in any way running the same referendum again - it's expanding on and clarifying the first one or, now with added information, allowing for the possibility that it wasn't such a great idea.

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                                Originally posted by Dogg Thang View Post
                                So it's not in any way running the same referendum again - it's expanding on and clarifying the first one or, now with added information, allowing for the possibility that it wasn't such a great idea.
                                You're absolutely right; I shouldn't reply from a position of cynicism.

                                I just feel that if we get another referendum, the government will do exactly what they did with the A/V ref - they'll pick what they want to win, and stack the questions towards producing that result. So they'll just pick the same, reductionist yes/no choice, so that turmoil will persist until people just want them to do something, anything to get us out of the mess they've made, because people's memories are too short.

                                But I'm ill today and fed up, so I'm kinda down on the whole thing.

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