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Europe IV: The Final Hour

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    The trouble is blocking a GE does make Corbyn (a leader who already considered ineffectual) look weak. As a strategy for Johnson, it is a good play.

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      Originally posted by MartyG View Post
      it is a good play.
      And yet there's the problem - that's exactly what it is. It will in no way contribute to a better scenario for the country with regards to Brexit.

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        I never suggested it was - looking at this removed from whether I think Brexit is good or bad (and it's bad, very bad), as far as strategies go for winning a GE, Labour and Corbyn are miles behind.

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            Presumably one thing Labour will be hoping for is that any extra time before a GE will be forgotten as a likely delay is only going to be a couple of weeks rather than anything meaningful and that time may add to wearing off the shine of Johnson's honeymoon period.

            I wonder if it would make a difference to the GE outcome if it was conducted under a caretaker Government, though nothing process wise would be different Corbyn would have a small extra feather in his cap of being able to point out that Johnson had lost the confidence of MP's in record time and that he was kind of in charge without any of the doomsday outcoming the Tories have banged on for years about.

            The other thing to consider I guess is that whilst polling has the Tories comfortably in front of Labour they tripped over that assumption last time and it almost ruined them, can they be absolutely sure that the figures are right and by the time polling day comes around the real result won't be lower than expected given their current Brexit Party-like positioning?

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              Boris's brother Jo Johnson is stepping down as MP for Orpington as he says he can't put family loyalty above the national interest.

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                Wasn't he in Miami Vice?

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                  Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
                  The other thing to consider I guess is that whilst polling has the Tories comfortably in front of Labour they tripped over that assumption last time and it almost ruined them, can they be absolutely sure that the figures are right and by the time polling day comes around the real result won't be lower than expected given their current Brexit Party-like positioning?
                  It tripped them up because May was a terrible people person and campaigner, whereas that is Johnson's strength and they're also pushing a resonant message of "Getting Brexit over with" (of course it won't be over come leave day, but that's largely irrelevant when it comes to messaging).

                  The Tories are targetting the right people because they're not going to convince remainers to vote for them given their stance, they will need the Brexit party to hemorrhage voters back to them, as that's where they've lost the most ground to which they can regain.
                  Last edited by MartyG; 05-09-2019, 11:05.

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                    Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
                    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

                    Boris's brother Jo Johnson is stepping down as MP for Orpington as he says he can't put family loyalty above the national interest.
                    If he's stepping down, then he is putting family loyalty first, otherwise he'd stay on and vote against his family.

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                      The opposition needs to play a very plain spoken GE - literally referring to him as a liar as often as possible etc to sew mistrust as much as possible, same with targeting oldies on the thing they care about more than UK sovereignty - their own pockets. It'd be a hard sell but they need to take away enough to offset any Brexit Party gains. It's a sheer embarrassment that in this scenario it's proving that difficult to topple the Tories.

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                        The trouble will be convincing the people who regularly bank roll the Tories to vote differently. The Tories control the money of the rich who will defend them to the hilt. Its like having access to the iron bank of braavos.

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                          I actually don't dislike Corbyn as a politician, he's clearly more principled than many in Whitehall, but pretty much every single poll shows that he is not seen as a good fit as the PM. Labour face an identity problem due to their fence sitting; leavers think they support remain, remainers think they support leaving (anecdotally brought up in a Remainiacs podcast recently by a Labour MP who was canvessing in his consituency).

                          You're not going to convince ardent Brexiteers that it's going to hit them in the pocket because they either don't believe it's true, or don't care that it is. It's completely pointless for Labour to be canvassing to these people. As much as Corbyn isn't a bad politican, at this point in time, he's actually detrimental to Labour winning a GE.

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                            Yep. There is zero point in selling to those who won’t buy. And their lack of any commitment as an opposition when it counted means that votes from people who could have been persuaded, those who mostly oppose Brexit or at least want to avoid a no deal Brexit, will be split all over the place rather than concentrated into anyone that can win.

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                              Time to give Cambridge Analytica a call, get the undecided on your side

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                                I think Labour's best bet to try and energise the under 30s into voting as that seems to be their biggest demographic for support - get them off their bums and into the voting booths - there's a definite untapped percentage of people who don't vote, many of them in that under 30s section. Convince this portion of the electorate to use their vote this time and I think Corbyn's prospects increase, convert the might votes to definites.

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