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Europe IV: The Final Hour
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Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happen, including Boris Johnson’s meeting with Leo Varadkar to discuss Brexit
Irish PM is hopeful a deal can be passed last minute after assurances from Johnson which wouldn't in any way be more about trying to avoid the branding of being the one to tear up the Good Friday Agreement rather than a genuine pursuit of a deal...
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Follow the latest political developments after the UK and Irish leaders agreed there was a ‘pathway to a possible deal’
Tusk adds his voice to being optimistic about a deal being possible. Honestly, I wish everyone would just wise up to Johnson's games as he couldn't be more obvious. There's no breakthrough, he'll be offering a variant of his terms that the EU and Ireland can deal with not because he has any wish for a deal but because if he can get one agreed then he knows he can return to Parliament for a vote on it and that that vote will fail. It's not about losing another vote for him, it's about presenting a doomed deal so it can blog the parliamentary agenda on that day preventing any votes taking place on alternatives such as another referendum whilst looking like he's accomplished something and parliament were once again the bad guys for blocking it. It's weak of the Irish PM and the EU to not call him out for disingenuously misleading them over an agreement that will result in deaths once Johnson tears it up.
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I have to wonder if this is part of the game because, at this stage, they all know exactly what Johnson is like and it's not like Tusk has been shy about being direct. They know Johnson has been trying to blame the EU the whole time so perhaps this expression of optimism is designed to give the message - hey, look at us all eager for a great deal and wanting progress. Knowing all the while that it's not coming but at least they can say later that they were totally open but it was Johnson who let the process down.
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Remember that this is just the withdrawal agreement with the EU - there are so many things around such as the provision in Withdrawal Agreement Bill, that are giving powers to the government that allow them to make changes to laws without these changes going through Parliament; the Henry VIII powers as they are known.
There are lots of little details hidden away unscrutinised - but unless Johnson has caved in on the UK's red lines, this is all bluster anyway.
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DUP raises doubts on customs union, while Labour expected to whip MPs to support a second referendum
Pro-Remainers have suggested that they may be getting enough movement on the needle to get enough support to secure a Second Referendum as the DUP begin to suggest they won't support Johnson's new deal proposal. If he loses them he will likely lose many of the ERG as well which would be fatal given May's history on that failing and his government now being a minority in the first place. Support is said to be improving on Referendum 2 for any decision made post-Johnson's failed deal or also forcing one agreed by him to go back to the public as well.
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Meanwhile, a poll from YouGov shows that a majority of 40% of the population thinks No Deal is the best outcome if negotiations fail, despite most believing they'll be worse off: https://news.sky.com/story/trust-in-...veals-11833075
41% Leave with no deal
33% Remain in the EU
14% Negotiations should continueLast edited by MartyG; 14-10-2019, 09:22.
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The day’s political developments as they happen, including the Queen’s speech, and Johnson and Corbyn speaking in the subsequent debate
Johnson's deal is predictably failing and the EU seems poised to grant an A50 request if one is made.
And so staggering is the trail of failure that Johnson is creating, a vote will take place on the Queens Speech. It doesn't have much effect in current circumstances but if Johnson loses that vote as well it will be his 9th consecutive voting failure, 100% of all occasions, and the first such vote to fail since 1924.
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