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Europe III: April F-EU-Ls

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    Whenever various polls come up it seems like a significant number still support leaving under any circumstance but despite all the daily reporting I can easily imagine many white noise it out so aren't exposed to stuff that would affect their stance.

    It's hard to imagine Remain wouldn't win a second vote though, leaving on somewhat worse terms than being in the EU, I don't think, bothers that huge a number of Leave voters. The biggest concern has to be the staggering ineptitude of the government and their utter display of how unable to cope and govern they are.

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      Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
      Am I missing something?
      Yes, MPs like Johnson know absolutely that the EU won't agree with removing the backstop - they're setting it up for a hard brexit they will then blame on the EU for being inflexible.

      A hard brexit is what Johnson and his ilk want, but if they can push the blame of the consequences onto someone else, even better.

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        Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
        Whenever various polls come up it seems like a significant number still support leaving under any circumstance but despite all the daily reporting I can easily imagine many white noise it out so aren't exposed to stuff that would affect their stance.

        It's hard to imagine Remain wouldn't win a second vote though, leaving on somewhat worse terms than being in the EU, I don't think, bothers that huge a number of Leave voters. The biggest concern has to be the staggering ineptitude of the government and their utter display of how unable to cope and govern they are.
        At this stage the government need to start looking at sedition charges for all parties that brought the whole thing to vote in the first place and kept pushing for it. While the entire episode wasn’t direct overt sedition in the traditional sense, it’s had exactly the same effect (and probably intended effect) of destabilisation on all levels of the uk.

        Consequences for actions need to be learned in a sever manner for this, actions that have an effect on 70m people in the uk.

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          Yep. And like SF, I think that a significant number still support leaving under any circumstances and what is scary about that is that pretty much the entire leave campaign has been exposed to be lies and they broke rules in the process. That followed years of lies about the EU (bananas and so on) which pretty much anyone should know are lies at this point. Everyone who pushed for leave ran for the hills and the political mess has gone below farce and the fallout is becoming very clear. And still with all of that, having been lied to in order to secure a vote and knowing that, people will still support it.

          Whereas I have to imagine that, had I voted to leave, I'd be really, really angry. I'd be demanding my NHS bus money. I'd be demanding everything that they said we'd get. I'd be pulling Farage and Johnson and the like out in front and demanding they fix it because they caused it.

          But nope. Certainly some are better informed and have swung away from leave but many haven't and that's just scary to me. They'd rather put everything at risk even knowing they were deceived. That's a self-destructive tendency.

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            You'd never get a movement to bring those who brought the Leave outcome into being because it would be self-harming to the existing parties themselves.

            The vote happened because the Tories made it a central mandated promise to voters, as much as the Leave campaigns can be pulled for how they campaigned the option was always there and therefore the outcome was always a possibility. For the Tories to move to pull up Leave campaigners would mean turning on their own after first presenting the option themselves and nuzzling those campaigners to their bossom. Then there's Labour, led by a party leader who himself wants to leave so you'd never get movement from there either. That leaves the campaigns and their promises themselves. It'd be a nightmare trying to unpick the lies from the PR (as much as Leave would defend under anyway). For example, the MHS infamous bus advert technically infers using £350m on the NHS but doesn't explicitly promise or state using all of it on the health service. I'm not saying I'm agree with it, but it's easy to see how it'd be like pinning water to a wall with a lot of stuff.

            I suppose there's the counter angle as well that a similar push would have to be used against the Remain camp and government leaders themselves who campaigned to remain and where any lies or false promise were made were also snared. On the plus side, Cameron would get absolutely butchered from both sides with all this.


            If there's another referendum, the biggest trouble with it will be party stance. It's pretty hard now for the Tories or even Labour to a large extent, to run a Brexit campaign from a Remain position. However, they badly need a strong Remain campaign that actually champions the benefits of staying in the EU rather than fear mongering about the effects of leaving. Had they bothered to do that the first time I've no doubt Remain would have won, Project Fear 3.0 won't work. That, and they need to shut Sturgeon up. Her empty waffle about leaving causing a Scottish independence referendum and simultaneously claiming remaining causes a referendum too does nothing but harm.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
              I'm not saying I'm agree with it, but it's easy to see how it'd be like pinning water to a wall with a lot of stuff..
              I'm not saying prove it in a court of law. It has obviously been false. That's not in question. If the answer is "well, technically..." then it's a lie. If the answer is "well, we didn't specifically say..." then it's a lie. What I'm saying is that, if I were in the Leave camp and knowing that these all turned out to be lies ("well, technically...") I'd be absolutely furious and demanding answers. And if they can't deliver what they said they would when they are put to it and faced with their own words (and we all know they can't), then I'd have no choice but to think I couldn't now support leaving. I'm just expressing how I find it difficult to understand how so many can have all this stuff revealed to them and know they have manipulated and lied to and still end up supporting it. It's like some kind of Stockholm Syndrome caused by years of Daily Mail exposure or something.

              But I agree on pretty much everything else. The party stance is a major problem, especially with Labour. They should have provided some kind of strong opposition the moment the reality of the situation started kicking in and Corbyn could have stepped up and made his career but he didn't.

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                The lies are key to all this because if you take the lies away then we absolutely, definitely have to leave the EU nomatter what because of it was the other way around and the majority said "we want to stay" and the government took us out then there'd be riots and rightly so. But,... we were lied to. All of us, and we know it, and the government knows it and everyone knows it and yet we are still going ahead with it as though it was all above board and be all knew/know what we're doing.

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                  Originally posted by Dogg Thang View Post
                  I'm not saying prove it in a court of law. It has obviously been false. That's not in question. If the answer is "well, technically..." then it's a lie. If the answer is "well, we didn't specifically say..." then it's a lie. What I'm saying is that, if I were in the Leave camp and knowing that these all turned out to be lies ("well, technically...") I'd be absolutely furious and demanding answers. And if they can't deliver what they said they would when they are put to it and faced with their own words (and we all know they can't), then I'd have no choice but to think I couldn't now support leaving. I'm just expressing how I find it difficult to understand how so many can have all this stuff revealed to them and know they have manipulated and lied to and still end up supporting it. It's like some kind of Stockholm Syndrome caused by years of Daily Mail exposure or something.

                  But I agree on pretty much everything else. The party stance is a major problem, especially with Labour. They should have provided some kind of strong opposition the moment the reality of the situation started kicking in and Corbyn could have stepped up and made his career but he didn't.
                  This is true with most things. People don't want to have to change their firmly held beliefs, especially if those beliefs make them feel superior to everyone else, and especially especially if changing them means admitting you were wrong. Even the most rational people can be completely irrational when it comes to their favourite thing. And Leavers were never rational, so it's worse for them.

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                    Slight tangent here but I blame Obi-Wan Kenobi for some of this. How any of us grew up thinking his "from a certain point of view" bull was acceptable is just insane. That man was a dirty rotten liar and needed a kick in the rear end.

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                      I guess it comes down to how there's so many different versions of leave that people voted for. If you voted for 'full controls of our borders' and that was your main or only concern, it's still on the table. Same for several other regularly discussed leave voting reasons. For many I'd say you're spot on about years of newspaper stories being the real core of why their views are unshakeable. I don't think enough actively care enough to be affected by campaign lies, voter faith in MP's and their promises was so low to begin with and hasn't improved. It's like when Osborne and Cameron made out that if Leave won the UK would go into devastating insta-recession, that didn't happen so it's easy for people to be dismissive of claims the UK will economically collapse in a No Deal scenario. It may be true but MP's have passed the boy who cried wolf stage in have brought that on themselves. Fortunately, if they an swing a second vote scenario at the very last minute, the 2016 voter margin is within a figure that the outcome has a good chance of changing. The utter s---show the Tories have made of themselves really should be enough in itself to change minds at this point.

                      For Labour though, man, their trouble is they allowed themselves to believe Corbyn was different but he's a career politician or at least became one as soon as he smelled real power. He's played the entire two year period waiting for the Tories to mess up enough for him to take over and the fact that they've imploded every aspect to this extent and he still has zero chance of getting in no.10 - well, more fool Labour if they keep him as leader once Brexit is settled. His face should be next to 'unelectable' in the dictionary.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
                        For Labour though, man, their trouble is they allowed themselves to believe Corbyn was different but he's a career politician or at least became one as soon as he smelled real power. He's played the entire two year period waiting for the Tories to mess up enough for him to take over and the fact that they've imploded every aspect to this extent and he still has zero chance of getting in no.10 - well, more fool Labour if they keep him as leader once Brexit is settled. His face should be next to 'unelectable' in the dictionary.
                        I can imagine there is an alternative reality where the Brexit vote never happened and Corbyn got in eventually just to get Cameron and the Tories out and, for his term, he said nice things and things just trundled on as normal and many thought he was brilliant. But only because he wasn't put to the test. In this reality, he was tested and failed along with the rest of them.

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                          That seems the likeliest way he'd have got in, Labour still really needs to pay more attention to Scotland though and he never seems to make much effort on that front. Once all this is done it's like people say about the next years Democratic race runners, we need new party leader candidates who are younger and fresher in. The likes of Boris, Gove etc are tainted blood now for the Tories and for Labour, expecting what will be a 70+yr old who clearly won't stand for anything during the most testing times is a death call for their chances.


                          I wonder how much public support there'd be if we had the type of PM who, say hit March (and assuming they yielded the power to do so) simply said "No General Election, no second referendum - we simply didn't get a suitable agreement and we have a duty of care to the nation. Article 50 is now unilaterally revoked"

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Superman Falls View Post
                            I wonder how much public support there'd be if we had the type of PM who, say hit March (and assuming they yielded the power to do so) simply said "No General Election, no second referendum - we simply didn't get a suitable agreement and we have a duty of care to the nation. Article 50 is now unilaterally revoked"
                            I'd say there would be a lot of noisy complaining but they'd get over it. Like when Boaty McBoatface didn't happen.

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                              Originally posted by Dogg Thang View Post
                              I'd say there would be a lot of noisy complaining but they'd get over it. Like when Boaty McBoatface didn't happen.
                              I disagree. I think there'd be rioting - to the degree that there would be fatalities. However, I don't believe it'd be anywhere near the scale of the London Riots, and it'd be over pretty quick.

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                                And Khan went and sold those water cannons, the buffoon.

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