Nintendo Switch: Thread 06

[Nu-Eclipse]

They could look at 50m units lifetime and think that was a profitable success but it'd also be another massive shrinkage of their overall footprint. They're looking at around 90m just to match pace.

I find it hilarious that a certain forumite isn't onto your comments cry-arsing about "insider knowledge" or whatever "my speculative forum opinion is better than your speculative forum opinion" crap that certain forumite likes to pull around here!

50m Switch sales at end of lifetime really wouldn't be a massive shrinkage of Nintendo's footprint at all, given that their last flagship, Wii U, didn't really turn them any tangible profits. It would be rightly lauded as a success story that would give them a good grounding from which to launch their next flagship home console. 50m Switch sales (if it gets there) would also see it be more successful than the SNES - no mean feat. And none of that is even mentioning that amiibo and Classic Mini sales are still going strong so not sure how you can talk about a shrinking footprint when Nintendo are still clearly in the industry and consumer consciousness.

[Nu-Eclipse]

I think everyone had already forgotten what the Wii was by the time Skyward Sword came around.

I definitely hadn't. I just don't think that it was a surprise when SMG and SMG2 also failed commercially to the point that they were both destroyed combined sales-wise by the massively inferior NSMB Wii.

[Neon Ignition]

It's one of Nintendo's biggest failure that. To create that level of success and before the same generation is even out to have lost that entire userbase and have to start again, then clearly not have recognised that as the case too. Switch resets that situation and is nicely engaging with people again, I just pray they aren't as arrogant yet again and think it'll keep on selling without consistent support right through to the end.
The lack of VC is a bad sign too, I'd expect it not to make a massive impact on Switch sales but its the perception it breeds that they don't place enough emphasis on content.

[Neon Ignition]

It'd be a downsizing at 50m because the Switch would ultimately have to not just cover hardware sales for their console divisions but also cover the vacuum created by the end of their dedicated handheld division. If Nintendo launches a Nintendo 4DS or what not then 50m Switches is a big win over 12m WiiU's, if they don't make another handheld then 50m Switches is a downturn on the combined 88m 3DS/WiiU sales they previously enjoyed.

The smart choice for Nintendo still seems to be to release a smaller build dedicated Switch handheld SKU at some point when 3DS becomes too long in the tooth. It'd help give them a PR boost but not mean supporting separate hardware anymore.

Honestly, unless Nintendo sorts out its software pipeline then successful or not them relying on one platform with their history seems a really dumb idea for them to adopt. Imagine Switch 2 selling 12m with no 3DS equivalent around to help them ride the years.

[Nu-Eclipse]

Combined Wii U/3DS sales is a massive, massive stretch, haha! Nintendo literally couldn't give the Wii U away during the end of its lifespan - the 3DS was pretty much carrying profits for Nintendo during that gen, along with amiibo sales.

It'll be interesting to see what Nintendo do with their dedicated handheld strategy going forward. I don't think it'll impact on them the way you think it will because I think people realise that the handheld market simply isn't what it was decades ago. Bar the Switch's convenience factor there isn't a massive demand for dedicated gaming handhelds anymore. So yes, 50m Switch sales would still be a massive win for Nintendo no matter how you try to slice it.

No more Virtual Console is sad but the writing had been on the wall as far back as the end of the Wii tbh (last Wii VC content update was 2013 iirc?). The fact that Nintendo pretty much stopped bothering with it for the 3DS and Wii U said it all. Nintendo could have changed the game (pardon the pun) regarding digital retro content with VC but wasted the opportunity through repeated botches.

[Neon Ignition]

That's why I'm still wary of them when it comes to Switch. They're so bad at maintaining their userbase. They'll often cite trying new approaches to bring in those who don't normally play games and yet their numbers very rarely reflect it as a working strategy. What good is the Wii garnering 100m units sold base if it vanishes the next gen? That's what I'm mindful of with the Switch, it's doing well but have Nintendo finally learnt enough to not blow it yet again. Meanwhile Sony and arguable MS have fostered their userbases and seem to have a stronger loyalty from them as a result making for more consistent a long term approach. You'd think the WiiU would have shocked them to their core, a major display that slapping Mario on something or reusing a popular products name won't make people just shell out no questions asked.

If they don't reveal a decent amount more in the next few months 2019 better be stacked.

[dataDave]

If they don't reveal a decent amount more in the next few months 2019 better be stacked.

They're not going to send anything else out to die at the hands of Smash. It's easily their biggest game behind Mario Kart. I wouldn't expect anything during the six months following Smash, either.

[wakka]

They're not going to send anything else out to die at the hands of Smash. It's easily their biggest game behind Mario Kart. I wouldn't expect anything during the six months following Smash, either.

This charitably pre-supposes they've got loads of great stuff waiting in the wings.

I agree with Superman Falls on this one. Great as the Switch is doing, Nintendo will be in a dangerous position if they don't pick up the pace in terms of software. I think there's a certain amount of novelty factor behind Switch sales - the idea captures people's imaginations, even people who don't game much (a lot like with the Wii).

A Switch 2 that follows the same basic format but upgrades the components - which is the most likely in terms of a successor - could struggle if Nintendo fail to keep the platform exciting. If they're allowing the majority of their userbase (i.e. the people who aren't massively invested in playing Ikaruga rereleases and importing Japanese Taiko drums) to let the thing gather dust due to a lack of software, those people will not be back for round two in two or three years.

[Dogg Thang]

As big as it is, Smash is a single game. Consoles need variety and a steady stream of it. If Smash is second only to Mario Kart and yet big enough not to release anything in the same year then we wouldn't have seen Zelda launch with MK8. The logic isn't sound there.

But I think the Switch is performing regardless and it would seem odd to be concerned about an effect on a Switch 2 at this point. The 3DS (and many systems) weathered worse droughts.

[dataDave]

I think I read somewhere that they've sold twice as much software this Q2 compared to last Q2, so they are probably going to sit back until sales of Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon die down a bit. I believe Zelda, MK8D, ARMS, Splatoon 2, Mario Odyssey and even Xenoblade 2 are still doing really well sales wise. Indie publishers seem to be having great success selling stuff on it as well.

[dataDave]

Consoles need variety and a steady stream of it. If Smash is second only to Mario Kart and yet big enough not to release anything in the same year then we wouldn't have seen Zelda launch with MK8. The logic isn't sound there.

But they're pushing a big Pokemon thing at the same time.

[Neon Ignition]

They also have to contend in the next 12 months or so with the growing distraction of their rivals mounting up new consoles which will distract a lot from Nintendo's presence. Let's say Smash sells 10+m units which would be an excellent start, it's around 50% of the userbase diving on in. But the other 50%... well, at this rate probably hacking their Switch.

It's where the mindfulness comes from, WiiU wasn't an isolated incident and there are factors from how Nintendo perceived and delivered on Wii that paved the road to that failure. It'd be a massive shame for their current success to lead to a Switch U rather than a Switch 2 because they were too lazy and cheap to maintain the interest of those who have been caught up in the early joy of the current machine.

Plus, they need to be mindful on relying on 6 monthly big hitters. It's not like having Smash WiiU did that system any favours, Nintendo needs to put some proper effort in. I'm not at all sold by the idea of potentially being expected to play Smash in November then wait all until they decide to knock Pokémon RPG out 7-8 months later.

[Nu-Eclipse]

PS5 and "NeXtBox" within the next 12 calendar months? I personally doubt it. Beyond 2020 might be more realistic imo.

[Dogg Thang]

Yeah not seeing new consoles within the next 12 months.

[speedlolita]

Is Steve Jobs working on the NeXTbox?