Europe IV: The Final Hour

[charlesr]

A bit long winded, but a good read

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/02/opinion/brexit-news.html#click=https://t.co/dZhNFUXoO6

[Cassius_Smoke]

MPs have backed a delay by 1 vote.

Im beginning to think we will never see the end of brexit in our life time.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47809717

[Neon Ignition]

It's nice that it effectively takes away one of the weapons May might have used to keep reviving her deal but as much as Cooper's moves make a level of sense she also tends to push for things May is likely to do without a shunt anyway.

I'm at the point where unless they smack their heads together and wake up to the notion of agreeing to a second referendum they're doomed to endlessly circle the same discussions without progress. It's day two of Corbyn and May's talks and all they're doing is wasting time, nothing they discuss will happen.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/apr/04/brexit-latest-developments-live-hammond-opens-up-cabinet-split-by-saying-mps-should-get-vote-on-second-referendum-live-news

Phillip Hammond ruffles feathers this morning by starting to back the idea of bringing a second referendum to the table

[MartyG]

This news seemed to quietly slip through without much notice last week: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...toral-offences - Vote Leave essentially admitting it broke the campaign rules by withdrawing its appeal.

[fishbowlhead]

I beyond caring now.

[eastyy]

Can someone dumb this down for me as i am really confused.

The deal is set with the EU it cannot be changed and was pre agreed (as far as i am aware)....so what are they voting on ?

[Neon Ignition]

Essentially they're ignoring them, sticking their fingers in their ears and singing 'lalalalala'

They have a clear path out of this mess and they'll do anything they can to avoid taking it because none of them wants to shoulder the responsibility of being the one to say it.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/04/theresa-may-to-make-written-brexit-offer-to-jeremy-corbyn

May is now expected to make a formal Brexit deal offer to Corbyn that includes giving MP's the option over whether to take the final agreed deal back to the public in a second referendum. They are utter, utter unforgivable morons if they don't say yes to that second vote.

[Neon Ignition]

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/donald-tusk-will-tell-eu-to-back-brexit-flextension-for-uk/ar-BBVDDJ7?ocid=ientp

Tusk is open to a long term extension that can be ended at any time the UK requires

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brexit/theresa-may-asks-the-eu-for-brexit-to-be-delayed-until-june-30/ar-BBVDXMj?ocid=ientp

Whilst May is to write to the EU asking for a second extension but only till 30 June... for god knows what reason at this point. Hopefully the EU leaders call her out on this one and enforce a longer one

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/labour-revolt-possible-if-corbyn-doesnt-press-for-public-vote-watson-brexit

The Labour Party Deputy Leader has said that there could be a party rebellion if Corbyn doesn't insist on a second referendum


It's a muddled mess now trying to work out where Corbyn and May are headed with their thinking but if I had to hazard a guess:

Corbyn
See's this as an opportunity to be a white knight figure, making May bend to the customs union concept and getting through the Brexit he wants to happen. He repeatedly tables a second referendum but will do anything to avoid actually running one so in order to further his own position he is willing to leverage it for his own advancement. He will get an agreement with May with a vote over a second ref as a condition but with the intention of having the MP vote see the motion fail to pass meaning he can claim support but never actually have to deliver on it. Then his compromised deal ails through, May steps down and he can claim he solved the unsolvable Brexit crisis. The trouble is, leveraging the hopes of a referendum is exactly what Cameron did and it backfired spectacularly on him.

May
Desperate for nothing more than to cling on to power for another day and to seal her premiership by delivering her deal, she will agree to Corbyns base requirements in the same hope that a second ref motion fails with MP's. The deal goes through, she steps down and then given her replacement is highly likely to be a harder brexiteer they will later retroactively strip out all of Corbyn's requirements in the second phase negotiations.

Overall
Labour will implode under Corbyns willingness to facilitate May's Brexit and his lack of enforcement of a second referendum. He'll survive the current situation but won't make it to the next general election as the part ousts him once and for all. Likewise, Tory's will implode under May's willingness to breach the framework of their Brexit plans and getting into bed with Corbyn, seen as the ultimate betrayal they'll split and become much harder right leaning in the aftermath.



Corbyn and May can't deliver a 'too soft for Leavers, too hard for remainers' compromise and pretend for one second that they're delivering on what people voted for in 2016. It'll be seen as the worst of both worlds and the EU will be mortified at the prospect of entering Phase 2 with a government that is undergoing collapse.

[MartyG]

The plan is to blame Corbyn for the soft Brexit. Corbyn is a patsy, made especially easy by the way the majority of the press report on him.

[Neon Ignition]

If he doesn't enforce a second ref he deserves it as all he's actually doing then is outright pushing May along the finish line

[MartyG]

May has asked for an extension to June 30th. The EU are going to tell her to sod off.

Also, from the article linked above

Meanwhile, sources have indicated that it is likely that any agreement on a customs union will require a clause stating that the customs union with the EU is one that can be left in the future.

The EU are also going to tell the UK to sod off if this is what they come up with.

[Zaki]

So bored of all this