Europe III: April F-EU-Ls

[Dogg Thang]

Probably.

[MartyG]

A "DUP source" says they won't support May's deal following Cox's legal advice, so unless May can whip her MPs and convince a few Labour MPs or independents too, her deal is not going to pass. Again.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/12/brexit-mps-vote-theresa-may-backstop-deal-jeremy-corbyn-politics-live

A Tory MP is already calling on May to announce a snap General Election if her deal is voted down to create a mandate for her deal to pass through. 100% against such a thing, General Elections are not one issue votes and just because people vote for a Tory government does not mean they support May's deal, especially when most the party doesn't itself support the deal. It's an attempt at vote rigging and the idea alone should be barred from consideration.

May has once again said that if her deal fails to go through then there could be no Brexit... as though that's not what most MP's want

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/12/brexit-mps-vote-theresa-may-backstop-deal-jeremy-corbyn-politics-live

ERG are said to be in panic mode. They wanted a way to back the deal but because of their own previous demands they now can't so are facing having to abstain or vote the deal down and thereby cause the risk of a second referendum or Soft Brexit to increase.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/12/brexit-mps-vote-theresa-may-backstop-deal-jeremy-corbyn-politics-live

May says a second referendum can't be run because there's no evidence public opinion has changed since June 2016

[Cassius_Smoke]

Remember she can still pull the plug on the whole lot at this point. It seems mad to continue.

[MartyG]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-politics-live

May says a second referendum can't be run because there's no evidence public opinion has changed since June 2016

I believe that might be another May lie


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[Asura]

I believe that might be another May lie

It isn't, though. Like, public opinion has changed but it changes every day. Surprised to find myself defending something she's said, but regardless - I suspect what she meant was more along the lines that yes, if you had the vote today, Remain might win, but there hasn't been an enormous swing to the Remain direction. It would still be a relatively narrow margin. This would just leave us in the same situation 2-3 years down the line when the Leave voters start asking for a third referendum.

[MartyG]

It's shifted from 48:30 leave:remain to 38:45 leave:remain and has been consistently remain in all polls since Jan 1st 2018.


And when asked was it wrong to leave the EU: https://whatukthinks.org/eu/question...-leave-the-eu/

Those now eligible to vote since 2016 are overwhelmingly in favour of remain: https://www.ofoc.co.uk/new_poll_reve...g_young_people

Public opinion has shifted and she IS wrong to suggest otherwise.

[Dogg Thang]

I suspect what she meant was

I think if you have to replace what she said with your own reading of it in order to make the point that she is right, she's probably not right. As you say, public opinion has shifted. And it was far too close to begin with. If something this huge has to err on one side or the other, it should err on the less disruptive side until the mandate is truly large enough to justify the upheaval.

[Brad]

There’s no evidence mps have changed their mind about her poxy deal but we’re viting on that again. Hypocrisy.

[QualityChimp]

Theresanator 2: Judgement May?

[Paulos G]

Vote defeated by how many are we thinking? I’m guessing 113.

[MartyG]

It'll be less than last time, 173

[Paulos G]

Yeah, less than last time. I’ve probably gone too low. Watching live. Very exciting*

*ohgodwhathasmylifebecome