Europe III: April F-EU-Ls

[Dogg Thang]

I think social media did this, or did the most to drive this, because it pairs up "internet knowledge" with the inherent trust people have of their acquaintances (it's no longer "some rando on the internet says vaccinations make kids autistic", it's "Sarah from work believes vaccinations make kids autistic").

We need to start teaching people again to simply not trust anything they read online.

Yep, I agree. You're right. And it's important to see where this gets twisted. So instead of just "Sarah from work believes vaccinations make kids autistic", it's "Sarah from work believes this because her timeline is full of articles telling her this that is the case and those are being paid for". It's part media literacy and part a need to tackle the manipulation and misinformation itself.

The idea of our own internet bubble (which didn't really hold up anyway) is now compromised because the appearance of those bubbles is being altered, sometimes by real people, those small but loud voices, and sometimes by paid interests. And you're spot on that it then looks much larger when it's a small sample group with a small amount of amplified voices. As a snapshot of what's going on, I feel it has rendered social media effectively useless.

[Lebowski]

Ive heard it called the echo chamber, you tend to be friends with people that hold your views and Facebook algorithms push content to you dependent on what you read and look at online or what groups or pages you like or join so you get a very narrow view.

I see a lot of political meme type content as i have a mix of friends that support both the main party's i think that's damaging to a degree because its not news its social propaganda which we never really got a few years back the "its funny" and "i believe that point of view" reaction encourages people to share and like these images whether there true or not.

I've seen the this image with hundreds of different headlines now, the packed images is from prime minsters question time and the empty house image was from a failing bill that was in its 8th hour of debate.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/25/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-increasingly-likely-to-accept-article-50-extension-minister-suggests-politics-live

In breaking not-news, Donald Tusk says the EU would extend Article 50 if asked. The comment is more another slap at May than anything else as though the intention is to try and nudge us towards her deal it's more likely to give ammunition to those MP's who aim to rule out No Deal as an option thereby calling her bluff if they feel it already isn't on the table and so the road to other options is an easy one to steer to.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/25/uk-us-brexit-derivatives-trading-deal-eu

The UK and US have agreed a post-brexit trade deal that protects current trading systems and blocks the EU from attempting to grab hold of London's interests. The current and now lasting set up accounts for 80% of the derivatives trading market with the US keen to stop the EU getting further involved in it.

[Zaki]

Anyone else signing up with BUPA?

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/25/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-increasingly-likely-to-accept-article-50-extension-minister-suggests-politics-live

We may finally have the game changer. Labour is to officially support the amendment in favour of a second referendum with Corbyn finally doing what May refuses to.

[MartyG]

Unless article 50 is extended, proposing a second referendum at this point is completely meaningless given it's not going to be held in the next 34 days. In fact, by the time the amendment makes it to the house it could be as little as 17 days until B day.

With the EU making murmurs it could agree to an extension (which is ultimately pointless given the stalemate will simply continue), I think the probability of a No Deal Brexit has slightly reduced, but this still requires the government to ask for the extension (parliament can't do the asking even if it voted it through in the House), so I'd currently put the odds of no deal at 75%, simply because of the time-frame to get anything else done,

[Neon Ignition]

At this point No Deal feels like it entirely rests on May to happen. Most MPs and the EU appear perfectly happy to extend Article 50, it's just May who seems to only want to add enough time to the clock to push her failed deal again. In a way Labour and the EU have her by the balls now if things pan out as the EU had already said they'll grant the already a given extension for a worthwhile reason. By the time she loses the next vote her sole lifeline to avoid a legacy as the sole bearer of no deal will be to ask for an extension with remain or yet another stab at her deal as the voting options. It'd be her final chance but she seems desperate enough to take it.

[Cepp]

Yeah an extension would be needed for this to happen. I'm pretty sure the EU would agree to it.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/feb/26/pound-brexit-delay-reports-mark-carney-jerome-powell-business-live

The pound hits a ten month high following the lowered risk of Brexit happening and rumours May will take a new stance today...


That stance is that May is expected to confirm today that she will personally rule out allowing No Deal as an option and will become open to extending Article 50. Proxy markets are apparently now stating there is a 20% of Brexit happening on the 29 March, May's main issue being that the EU won't grant the extension without a significant game changing plan in place which would likely heavily increase the chances of a General Election or Second Referendum being required if MP's don't show a change in position in the next week or two.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/absolute-deadline-for-brexit-deal-in-23-days-say-eu-sources

EU sources say that the very, very final moment to secure a deal before the current deadline is the 21/22 March. That includes getting an extension of Article 50 either

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/26/keir-starmer-labours-brexit-stance-is-either-credible-deal-or-remain

Starmer aims to clarify Labours new position saying that the party line is that there should be a second public vote between a credible deal or remain. That deal would either be Labours own baseless deal that will be rejected in the coming days (hence this new stance) or May's deal being given a final attempt. Should a second referendum take place Labour and Corbyn would campaign for Remain.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/26/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-amid-reports-she-is-about-to-announce-u-turn-on-giving-mps-potential-vote-to-extend-article-50-politics-live

Farage says that if such a referendum happens he (and he hopes over Leave supporters) would abstain. I'm not sure Remainers would object too much there...

Meanwhile all this battering to Brexit has caused the pound to now rise to a 21 month high against the Euro

There's now discussion that May plans multiple votes on 12 March. First the vote on her deal, then a vote on whether to accept No Deal if her deal fails, finally on whether to extend Article 50. If you give MP's that line up they will inevitably target an extension.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/feb/26/brexit-latest-news-developments-theresa-may-chairs-cabinet-amid-reports-she-is-about-to-announce-u-turn-on-giving-mps-potential-vote-to-extend-article-50-politics-live

Bang, there looks to be the trick she's playing. If true it means:

Vote One - To accept or reject May's Deal for a second time
Vote Two - To accept or not No Deal being supported as an outcome for Brexit
Vote Three - Whether to extend Article 50 by a few weeks

BUT - Voting No Deal down in the second vote and extending A50 in the third would not rule out No Deal. All this is merely to extend the current situation for another 4-8 weeks so MPs would be muppets to fall for it and to not vote tomorrow to take it out of her hands.

[Neon Ignition]

And now that's exactly what she's said. Laugh is, they have no guarantee of extending A50 and would be requesting one that has no time in it to do anything but to prepare for the No Deal scenario they want to avoid. It's a fools trap.

[Brad]

Not quite. She goes off asking for an extension, EU say sure... if you do something meaningful between now and then like... oh I don't know... a second referendum?

[Neon Ignition]

I love that she's just been asked by the Hilary Benn what would she use the A50 extension time for and she had no answer