Europe IV: The Final Hour

[Neon Ignition]

Technically nothing, the deadline passes and No Deal just happens no matter what opposition the idea holds. The problem has been the days leading up to No Deal has left too many avenues for the PM to bottle it. May wanted to save her own neck so when time ran out she caved on an extension.

Boris is taking this 'do or die' approach but ultimately it comes down to what will be in his own best interest. I honestly have real difficulty with the idea that Boris, of all people, has spent much of the last decade making movements and attempts to become PM and the second he does is willing to risk that position to die on a hill over something he knows full well that only a small percentage of the public and his own party actually supports. Personally, I don't think he's unwilling to let No Deal happen but I think he'd likely ride out the other avenues first so he can claim no personal responsibility for any fallout. So, I'm currently in the boat that thinks No Deal is the likeliest outcome currently and is now more likely than ever but I'm very sceptical about the 31 October deadline lasting.

[Dogg Thang]

I guess that’s the question: what is in his best interest? Given that Brexit has felt like a total no win scenario, what is he gaining from putting himself in this situation and what does he need to do to get it? Is just getting to be PM for a moment a goal in itself?

[QualityChimp]

So... what happens now?

Conservative Brexit strategy fails.
General Election.
Tories lose even more votes, form government with Brexit Party.
No Deal Brexit.

[MartyG]

I have been totally removed from this for the last month or more (mostly as nothing seemed to be happening). What becomes the default scenario as the time runs out? I mean, what stops a No Deal on Oct 31 if no other situation is put in place? Won’t you just crash out eventually due to lack of options (and especially given that’s what Boris and his cronies want)?

Nothing. It's the equivalent of a meteor heading for the Earth. You can legislate for it to change trajectory, but if you do nothing, it's going to hit the planet. And Johnson is very good at bluster.

If Johnson doesn't fulfil his promise of exiting on 31st October, he's finished in any subsequent GE and the Brexit Party will take seats.

[Neon Ignition]

Hence the expected A50 delay, by the time Summer recess is over it's expected the Tories will have lost their 3 majority coalition seats in by-elections and Boris will return from his holidays the leader of a minority government, unable to clear anything. That's the time Labour would strike with a no confidence motion and we'd move fast to a late October General Election forcing an A50 extension

[MartyG]

There isn't going to be one - any delay now will finish the tories at a general election, it will allow the Brexit Party to take seats in the commons - all of this, all of it, is to stiffle UKIP/Brexit party. Currently with the election appointment of Johnson, the Conservatives are now leading the most recent polls. There is also very little time for Corbyn to put in a motion of no confidence and he appears to be in little hurry to do so. Also bear in mind it is the government that has to request the extension to A50.

Today they go on holiday for over a month, when they come back, parliament sits for just two weeks before breaking up for nearly another month for the party conferences. Johnson will be binding time, let the deadline lapse and will then blame the EU.

Currently I'm sat at 99% to 1% certainty no deal will be the outcome on 31st, purely because Johnson now has nowhere else to go.

[Neon Ignition]

But isn't it the case that if say in September a No Confidence motion passes then Boris effectively can't dictate any outcome? It's either a GE forced upon him or a new body of MPs takes over on the interim (likely via the remain parties). Him leaning on the deadline isn't technically any different than when May did it, No Deal is a technical default but the political realities have always prevented it. Putting aside the current motions to block Boris from being permitted to trigger No Deal via no action, it's a scenario that relies on Boris (who has been PM for 1 day, has just 98 to go and has zero mandate, parliamentary support and only partial party support for delivering a No Deal scenario) essentially taking the role on the understanding that his lifetimes ambitions will amount to being PM for all of three months and likely the last one the Tories would ever see.

It's not just Brexit he's contending with, if he delivers No Deal under current conditions there will definitely be an early 2020 GE and he would get decimated by Corbyn which is precisely the one thing all Tories are united against.

Honestly, No Deal may well happen on 31 October but I just see Boris as being a self-opportunist and delivering No Deal under the current circumstances gives him nothing to gain and everything to lose and I don't buy he's the type of person willing to throw his own ambitions away after 99 days. I still don't believe he actually believes in Brexit, since the first day it's felt like something he pursued because he couldn't see a high profile way of leveraging the situation within Cameron's halls, instead expecting to be a high profile figurehead who would be rewarded for a valiant but failed venture that caused drama when it actually succeeded.

Honestly, No Deal is a free pass for Corbyn to become PM and I just don't see it rather than all this being his usual empty bluster so he can pretend he tried.

[MartyG]

Johnson will do whatever it is to keep himself in power - currently that is leaving the EU on 31st October, regardless of whether that is with or without a deal.

Right now, a general election benefits Johnson, it doesn't benefit Corbyn, so Corbyn will not table a no confidence motion - Corbyn needs Johnson to be revealed for the charlatan snakeoil salesman that he is first. Any conservative MPs that vote with a motion of no confidence against the government will not be able to run as conservative MPs in a general election, they will fall in line and vote with Johnson just as they did with May.

And I'll say again, if Johnson reneges on his promise, then you may well be looking at Brexit party majority and Farage as PM at a subsequent general election - allowing a no deal scenario and going to a general election shortly afterwards actually greatly benefits Johnson as he'll be riding on the wave of patriotism for having left the EU.

[Zaki]

Right, it's been a nice 33 years, time to leave the UK.

[Neon Ignition]

Trouble for Corbyn though is that if he doesn't table a vote of No Confidence then he'll be seen as letting Johnson's No Deal happen and be out of the role of party leader in double quick time. Corbyn has X amount of chance of success in a GE but zero if he is seen as not standing up to Boris pre-31 October. Likewise, I don't see any scenario where the Brexit Party could ever command a majority to get into power. They still have no real policies so in a GE would open up a minefield of issues for themselves as they have to actually begin operating properly and there's little evidence a public majority still exists for Brexit, certainly none in any form for a No Deal outcome. Hell, a GE fought on Leave and Remain arguments is a referendum in all but name which makes an utter mockery of the refusal to hold another one - unless they know Leave would lose (which they likely do)

It's a cornerstone of how much of a disaster they've allowed Brexit to become. Brexit isn't a General Election matter and no outcome from one actually gives a clear mandate for action in either direction as you can't discern voter intent from the result.

The irony is, Corbyn's best chance of success now is to commit completely to a Remain stance/second referendum. I had a check and apparently 2 days ago the Lib Dems ruled out a coalition with Labour which makes a vote for them in a GE a Remain vote wasted now.

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-would-join-coalition-with-labour-to-keep-boris-johnson-out-of-office/

Curiously, the SNP have said they would - under current circumstances - agree to a coalition with Labour which could be the curve ball the Tories struggle with

[MartyG]

The irony is, Corbyn's best chance of success now is to commit completely to a Remain stance/second referendum. I had a check and apparently 2 days ago the Lib Dems ruled out a coalition with Labour which makes a vote for them in a GE a Remain vote wasted now.

The only wasted vote is one that isn't cast. Libdems will gain a huge number of votes in a GE given they are backing a remain stance.

[Neon Ignition]

They've already ruled out a coalition with Labour in a GE though so barring them somehow getting a majority any gains they make will come from the one party with a sliver of a reluctant chance of doing anything about the current situation. For anyone voting on a purely Brexit outcome standpoint the Lib Dems have just ruled themselves an obstruction to Remain

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/brussels-throws-out-boris-johnsons-plans-to-alter-brexit-deal

Brussels quickly dismisses all of Boris's deal proposals

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/labour-momentum-activists-snap-general-election-notice-boris-johnson

Labour and Momentum have put activists on notice for a Snap Election

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/25/conservatives-tories-boris-johnson-campaign-messages-facebook-general-election

And the Tories appear to be testing campaign material

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/brexit-deadlock-as-no-10-insists-eu-must-scrap-backstop-before-talks

Hot air from Boris again, ask for the impossible to try and make it look like the EU are the problem

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/brexit-deadlock-as-no-10-insists-eu-must-scrap-backstop-before-talks

Boris goes in hard on refusing to deal with the EU unless they scrap the backstop

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/priti-patel-accused-of-breaching-ministerial-code-for-second-time

First real day on the job and Priti Patel faces accusations of breaching ministerial code for the second time

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/26/sports-direct-shares-fall-results-delay-mike-ashley

Whilst the Sports Direct group gets a battering

[Cassius_Smoke]

Sports Direct can do one. I don't think anyone will care if they go under. Also, it smacks of not doing any research in to the business you're buying if you get hit by a 600mil bill you didn't know about.

Edit: Why the auto hyperlink??