Blast Processing: Every Generation

[fishbowlhead]

I’ll be waiting until there at least 5 in house quality titles that I want, I’m out of the day 1 rush for this.

[wakka]

I'm really intrigued to see more of Mario Kart 9 today, and my biggest wishlist item is that we get a glimpse of the next mainline 3D Mario.

[Neon Ignition]

I think my expectations fall roughly in the middle of what people are bandying around online. As it's an hour presentation following an initial reveal I expect we'll see a solid amount of software. I already own a ROG Ally X so the slew of third party title reveals on the ports front won't be of interest to me - I'm not going to be paying a higher price tag to play them on NS2 - third party ports are really the least interesting thing of any Nintendo console.

The expanded look at Mario Kart 9 is really the main draw, I'm expecting to see the next mainline Mario to some degree. Anything from it being their Xmas 2025 big title through to simply a bit of a tease ahead of a 2025 release. If I had to guess at other titles at least shown... maybe Splatoon 4? Some sort of title along the lines of Ring Fit, Wii Sports etc. As an alternative to Mario, we're well into the territory where Luigi's Mansion 4 could be announced.

When it comes to Metroid Prime 4... I really don't know. Even when Nintendo has done cross gen releases there's been close to zero difference between the two versions so if a dedicated Switch 2 version does exist I'm not sure I'd expect much from it.

I don't think we'll see Zelda and I also think disappointment will be order of the day for anyone harboring expectations that Switch 2 is going to provide a transformative change to performance in Switch 1 games.


I'm a sucker for day one even if the system barely gets used for a while. My thinking with Switch 2 would be to pick a retailer and give it a shot but I'm not sitting there F5'ing 10 tabs and multiple stores - the system would be more of a family wide console for MK9's sake so if I can't get one I'll grab one as they come up later in the year as the release schedule is never great out of the gate on Nintendo systems. I'm very tempered on the system though - it bewilders me that anyone can look at other handhelds on the market and remotely come away with the expectation that Switch 2 is in anyway going to be a powerhouse. By late 2026 those same people will be speculating a non-existant Switch 2 Pro.

[Neon Ignition]

Extended Generations
Whereas once upon a time there was a five year wait between generations, that increased to seven. Now it's closer to eight years and the recent full unveiling of the Switch 2 has highlighted the improvements over the old system but also the scale of iteration. It's been said numerous times that the now half a decade old PS5/XSX generation has still to really throw its weight around, in terms of getting the most out of the hardware, with lower benchmark titles still seeing releases on the 12 year old PS4 to this day. The rising push for hardware variants of consoles is expected to see Xbox and PlayStation launch handheld SKU's of their next-gen systems but with the reveal of the Switch 2 it's clearer than ever that the pricing is unsustainable for more powerful machines and the gains fairly minimal for that extra charge.

Rumours persist that Microsoft will launch early next year with their next console due to near terminal sales of their existing machines, whilst Sony is knocked around as having 2-3 years left before their next major launch.

Facing the potential increased focused on handheld models, the increasing costs of consoles and the expanding lifespan of cross-gen development - Is it time for the 10 year generation to begin?

[Neon Ignition]

We've discussed this several times especially since the current gen launched back in 2020 and now that we're half way through I think I've only become more entrenched in the view that the next-gen of consoles really don't need to hit before 2030. The leap between gens in Switch 1 and 2 isn't a chasm, it's been painful seeing how little software has pushed the need for new GPU's in the PC space and on console I find the arguments made in favour of new hardware to be really strained. A couple of games launch with wonky framerates and it's often taken as proof a new generation is needed whereas it's usually more convincing that optimisation just isn't implemented well enough.

Seeing how hard past generations were pushed in their late stages it feels like PS5 has been pushed to barely half power as the only real notable high performance game in town and even then their schedule is slow and in several cases not that visually amazing. Their non-in house exclusives have tended to be the more fun titles.

It would be an expensive run but if 2029/2030/2031 unfolded with me looking like I was being faced with the launches of PlayStation 6, Nintendo Switch 2 Lite, RTX6090, Quest 4 to pay out for then I'd be fine with that. I don't care what MS does with Xbox 5... I don't think anyone does.

[wakka]

I would posit a different model. I think the generation we are in now won't last ten years. It'll last longer. For the foreseeable future, really.

We're in the eternal generation. New machines and models will come, perhaps actually with greater frequency, but the idea of a hard generational transition is over. For proof, just look at the PS5. There is hardly a game on it that can't be played on the PS4. And there is no sign of that changing.

It'll be more similar to the smartphone model - hardware changes little and often and progressive cutoffs to software compatibility.

One exception to this is Nintendo. I think they will need to innovate again with hardware in a few years time, because I don't think they are going to see the sales with Switch 2 that they are looking for, and they will face stiff competition from an eventual PlayStation handheld.

[Neon Ignition]

I'm curious as to how needed the Switch 2 was. Falling Switch 1 sales are often cited as the reason for the Switch 2 but part of me wonders if the drop off is less that consumers were done with the Switch 1 and more that they simply reached a point where they held off because it became so inevitable a Switch 2 release was on the near horizon. If Nintendo had ruled out a Switch 2 launch before 2028 and maintained their major title release schedule for Switch 1 would it have still declined? (Not that its current sales figures are even poor)

[QualityChimp]

I have zero interest in the Switch 2.

There are no games I'm interested in, the boost in hardware doesn't excite me and it's not as innovative as previous Nintendo consoles.

We have 2 Switch Ones in our house I could play, but it's just not a console I'm interested in playing very often.

My wallet is grateful, but I wish some of these new consoles were a bit more interesting than following the iPhone model of feeling like you're using the same games and apps just slightly higher resolution.

[wakka]

I think Switch 1 sales began falling because we started to reach a point where Nintendo had sold a Switch 1 to the vast majority of people who were ever going to buy one, honestly.

After you hit 150m odd units the addressable market is naturally going to have declined considerably in size. There are always new kids being born and getting older, of course, but there isn't the massive pool of potential buyers that you had a few years ago.

I do think Switch 2 is a pretty milquetoast update and it's going to be a tough sell to a lot of people personally.

I know it's an unpopular point of mine to raise and I don't want to re-litigate it but Nintendo's bestsellers have always offered something unique. Its sequel machines usually sell much less. I anticipate the same pattern with S2.

But when it comes to PlayStation, it's a different story. I honestly think we could see refreshed models a bit more frequently in the future frankly, because I think by the time PS6 arrives it's going to become pretty obvious that the uplift over PS5 is fairly marginal in real terms and the old idea of a new gen has gone away.

[Neon Ignition]

With the way finances are headed and how Sony needed to place insanely high price tags on the Pro it's hard to see the wiggle room Sony has to justify too early a launch on PS6. Though perhaps a bigger influence will be that there's a real absence of competition to force their hand also