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  1. #21
    The trouble for Sturgeon is if the SNP always campaigns with a mandate to push for a pursuit of independence they can always say they have a mandate for it. The issue there is that just because people vote for them it doesn't mean they want another referendum, it just means the SNP lacks any credible alternative competition to vote for. I think that's why she's a tad more cautious about pursuing one because the last one and the last GE showed the SNP is stuffed in pretty much every scenario that they insist on one as there's nowhere near enough public interest.

    If Brexit happens and they vote independence Scotland is going to get crushed
    If Brexit doesn't happen and they vote independence they will have personally delivered a Scotland only Brexit and will get crushed
    If either happen and they lose the vote the SNP will pretty much lose any grounds to call another referendum for decades

    The timing for Scottish Independence campaigning couldn't be worse

  2. #22
    I don't know. If you're going to go through Brexit and get all insular and isolated about things, may as well go the whole way and get as small and as isolated as possible. Seems the Brexit mandate can be applied on a smaller and smaller scale. Take back control of Cornwall from your elite London overlords, for example.

  3. #23
    But Scottish independence isn’t about becoming isolated. We would be leaving to join the larger European Union. And self determination would be great too.
    Why doesn’t England have its own National Assembly? Then Westminster / Whitehall would be left to deal with UK only matters.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Superman Falls View Post
    The trouble for Sturgeon is if the SNP always campaigns with a mandate to push for a pursuit of independence they can always say they have a mandate for it. The issue there is that just because people vote for them it doesn't mean they want another referendum, it just means the SNP lacks any credible alternative competition to vote for. I think that's why she's a tad more cautious about pursuing one because the last one and the last GE showed the SNP is stuffed in pretty much every scenario that they insist on one as there's nowhere near enough public interest.

    If Brexit happens and they vote independence Scotland is going to get crushed
    If Brexit doesn't happen and they vote independence they will have personally delivered a Scotland only Brexit and will get crushed
    If either happen and they lose the vote the SNP will pretty much lose any grounds to call another referendum for decades

    The timing for Scottish Independence campaigning couldn't be worse
    I’m not convInced Scotland would get crushed on its own. There’s a lot of nonsense peddled in the UK media about Scotland’s position. Lies like England and Wales pay for Scotland’s NHS, the BBC “misrepresenting” Scotland’s GDP figures versus the UK last summer, Scotland being a drain on the Exchequer despite being a net contributor to the coffers etc, etc.
    Breaking away will likely come at a cost initially but no one has a crystal ball and can say for certain how things will pan out.

    Let’s wait and see what happens with Brexit first.

  5. #25
    I'm doubtful Scotland would survive long enough in its current form to enjoy being in the EU that much. The SNP likes to sell it like things would remain the same for Scotland but really the country would get utterly ravaged, in a way that makes Brexit look like a walk in the park, for years until they could get into the EU again and even then they'd be very low out of the member countries and find out they'd have less of an EU voice than they already do. That's the trouble with the SNP, wanting independence is understandable but they do want it at almost any price. Doesn't matter though, they'd lose another referendum

  6. #26
    Posted too close together

    Scotland would have to come up with a much better post-independence economic plan than they did last time, one that was workable this time. The UK would definitely attempt another Project Fear campaign but really the SNP's issue is that there's no way of looking at Brexit and seeing Independence as anything other than a vote for it, hence the amount of lying about Scotland staying in the EU if the vote went the other way etc. You're looking at rejoining the EU at the earliest in about 12 years time having to survive most of that on a new currency that would be worth significantly less than the Euro or the pound, it's basically doubling down on everything they hate about Brexit. Then Scotland has to reopen the discussion about a hard border between itself and the UK. There's basically no way of looking at Brexit in a way that involves it being anything from a mistake right through to a difficulty and then looking at Scotland and thinking it would be fine for them. Selling that to voters... maybe if the UK is on an uptick years into Brexit or if Brexit is overturned and things settle down and it's sold as a temporary inconvenience but really Scotland lacks the trade the sustain itself without excessive cuts people would hate.

  7. #27
    It’s been stated time and again by EU officials the Scotland would be able to join the EU quickly and easily. Pinch of salt as no one has exact details until the real discussions start. But our laws are already aligned with the EU having been a member for decades. The border with England would certainly present an issue, although nothing like the Irish border, but there are plenty of examples of EU countries bordering non EU countries to learn from.
    I agree with you that a good plan for the economy needs to be worked on. The last white paper was actually pretty reasonable. Yes I was sad enough to read all 650+ pages. It treated the oil money as a bonus which, as someone who works in the oil industry, I would say is quite sensible.
    Now as much as I cannot stand Soapy Salmond he is an economist and wasn’t just blindly leading the charge to independence. The white paper was actually worked on independent of the SNP so it’s not like it was a blatant piece of propaganda.
    Scotland back in the EU could be tempting for businesses to pop over the border for tariff free trade. Nissan for example. There’s already a proposal for a new stock exchange in Scotland. And all that oil off the West coast that we can’t access at the moment due to the nuclear subs would generate a fair bit of revenue.
    *As an aside I don’t know if peeps in the UK realise just how dependent we are on imported gas. We really could do with getting to those other reserves as North Sea oil is actually quite light now and doesn’t yield as much gas as it used to.*

    Anyway I hope when (if?) the time comes for the independence debate to start up again it’s handled in a straight talking fashion with sensible debate from both sides. Hopefully giving us a well informed outlook so people can make their minds up without another Project Fear style campaign to obfuscate things. And when the matter is settled either way that is that.

    And I’d like to thank our resident News Machine for reporting things as he does and fostering debate on the forum too. I’ve found so many people have no interest in politics and are ill informed or just blindly vote for the same old party as usual. Politics affects us all and people do need things to be brought to their attention.

  8. #28
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ommission-says

    That's the trouble though, though they could speed through reapplying it would realistically mean cutting a couple of years off what is typically a multi year process, fast yet still slow. That was before Brexit was well, by the time permission is granted, a referendum held and independence achieved much of that alignment could be out the window if Brexit goes ahead full speed.

    If I'm being honest, I think Sturgeon feels she has to tow the party line of pro-independence but after the last GE knows it's not going to happen anytime in the near-mid term future so is usually just trying to keep the wolves at bay

  9. #29
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    @CMcK: didn't Spain say they'd veto Scotland joining? Due to their own issues been thrown into relief, obvs.

    Edit: just skimmed the above article and the answer is "no".

  10. #30
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ests-live-news

    Sturgeon decides it's time to put a gun to the head of the UK. She has stated that if the UK does not cancel Brexit Scotland will proceed with pursuing a second Scottish Independence Referendum by May 2021. Time to see what the threat of a second hard border does to May.

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