BPX032: Calling Out the Ref

[Neon Ignition]

There are currently several ways Brexit can unfold over the coming six months, nearly all end with us standing on our own without being under the EU banner however Labour's almost reluctant change in stance this week has pried open one route where there could feasibly be a second referendum that could lead to the UK remaining as part of the EU.

From what I can gather, if the following chain of events happens then a second referendum could take place that could see Remain on the cards:

01 - Tories agree a deal with the EU
02 - Parliament votes down the deal
03 - The Tories split over whether to roll full steam on No Deal
04 - Tories agree an extension to Article 50 with the EU due to political motives
05 - Tories call a snap General Election
06 - Labour campaigns under the banner of offering a second referendum
07 - Tories lose the General Election
08 - Labour rushes through legislation for a second referendum
09 - Labour campaigns for a second referendum choosing to set the question as 'No Deal or Remain' rather than 'No Deal or Soft Brexit'
10 - Public votes for Remain
11 - Labour withdraws Article 50

That pushes aside all sorts of other issues such as a Tory leadership battle, the created calls for a third referendum etc but seems like the way people are holding on to a reversal of Brexit.

Assuming all of this happened though the UK would remain in the EU and broadly the situation it faces would be:

-Short term stability: There'd be no more overnight shocks to the pound etc, the damage is largely done in many ways and a reversal of fortunes for the UK is unlikely but likewise further damage would be immediately prevented as long as the country fended off any direction to another rerun of the polling

-Terms: It has already been established that we would retain the preferential terms that we are in the EU with currently, though our standing amongst the EU28 would be irrevocably damaged.

-Social Disturbance: Riots in the streets can feel like an overstretch of the drama should the first referendum result be overturned but a sharp rise in extreme right wing circles is easily conceivable and the long term impact that could have on UK politics could prove damaging down the line


There are other effects it could lead to that require stacking against the risks and hopes for the long term effects of us proceeding with Brexit. In either case, there is no going back to how things were pre-June 2016.

For those who prefer not to break down their reasoning, the poll is set to anonymous but given the door currently sits slightly ajar:

How would you vote in a Second EU Referendum and why?

[MartyG]

Remain as every other option is worse.

[Solar]

FCO 30/1048 reinforced my leave vote.

[Nu-Eclipse]

Remain as every other option is worse.

But dee will o' dee peeple, innit?

[Neon Ignition]

If I'm being honest, I feel like I've still never really heard an argument that significantly shifts my view from the last vote. I just can't click with the idea of the EU in its current form itself, nothing to do with straight banana's and all that nonsense, it's just something that feels like a breeding ground for less regulated political corruption and poor decision making and I've never been convinced that the accomplishments of the EU would never have happened if the original promoted intent of it being independent nations agreeing common terms hadn't have been carried out instead.

But - If they actually went through and put through a second vote to the public I'd choose Remain

The biggest key difference between the first vote and a second is the shining beacon of light that is UK MP incompetence. The idea that no-one in government thought to seriously plan for a Leave outcome years back shows that extent of this. The rollout of the Article 50 period has reached the point where there's no disguising how poor our MPs are at their jobs, the Tories have effectively devastated themselves and their reputation over the last 18 months and it doesn't stop there. People may cling to hopes of Labour seizing power but at this point it's like choosing between a s--- and a turd. Labour has sat like a limp wet fish through the entire thing and the idea that they're some sort of Remain white knight saviour now is laughable, it's cheap positioning against May and I strongly expect that bowing to members will translate to lost votes in a general election where the bulk of leave voters came from the Labour side.

I still don't buy the notion that the UK is destined to borderline collapse without the crutch of the EU to lean on, though a long term project I don't think it's too much of a stretch to imagine that the UK could be fine. That could is the issue though. Those in the key parties are to a person utterly useless and have shown themselves to be unfit to process Brexit and as an extension utterly unfit and unworthy of running an independent country.

Honestly, I don't really see a way of having a second referendum that results in a Remain win that doesn't create a strong argument for a third and final referendum on the matter but that should be done on the basis that a full and complete Brexit scenario plan that both the UK and EU pre-agree on is in place and is the basis of that final vote.


The problem isn't really Brexit, the problem is the people coordinating it. They are so staggeringly poor at managing it.
The way things have gone and look set to go, the pause button of Remain is much more appealing than trusting such utter morons despite the mountain of issues a second vote brings.

[Brad]

If I were in charge of Brexit right now (and I should be as you'll see) I'd basically just accept a hard Brexit with no deal but not have a hard border in Ireland. But how would that work you ask? I don't know, what am I the border police? but that's what I'd do. Free movement of people between South and North. The EU won't like it but I could live with them not liking it. Then I'd put it out there that we'd be prepared to give very good trading terms to any country that wants them, including those in the EU. Then everyone would leave the EU to get our ace trade deals and we can go back to how things used to be in the good old days when dog poo was white, you could smoke in cinemas, TV remotes had cables attached and kids fought over Speccy vs C64. Ahhhhhhh, lovely.

[MartyG]

You are Theresa May and I claim my £5.

[Cassius_Smoke]

This is a tough one as i feel really conflicted. I voted Remain first time round, and now the wheels of 'leave' are in motion I just want to see us leave and rip the plaster off...however, come a second ref I think I would vote Remain again. I actually feel we will be ok either way.

[Cepp]

Remain. Everything about vote leave was so rotten during that referendum and there's no way everyday people don't get ****ed five ways to Sunday if we go ahead with this.

The Russian influence alone should be enough honestly.

[teddymeow]

I would vote as I did the first time around: remain.

Too many uncertainties to do with leaving. We're 6 months away and nothing has been sorted yet.

[Neon Ignition]

One of the things I was curious with this was that Remain winning the poll was always going to be a given - during the first referendum period there were two threads with Leave/Remain polls and the forum voted in favour of Remain in both - but I was curious how much the voting percentages would shift. At the moment Remain is tracking around 20% stronger than it was two years ago