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  1. #1

    Europe IV: Igniting the Powder Keg

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...o-eu-live-news

    Barnier has said that the door to a long extension to Article 50 remains open but in essential the EU will require a damned good reason to accept the request and to take on all the disruption and risk that comes with allowing it and reminds MP's that for all their voting in the last week only one deal is on the table, the one they hate the most.
    Last edited by Superman Falls; Yesterday at 12:08 PM.

  2. #2
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...o-eu-live-news

    The Cabinet Secretary has 'leaked' a memo breaking down the effects of No Deal

  3. #3
    Even knowing that a No Deal Brexit would be a total mess, some of that seems alarmist. Yep, NI could be a total train wreck and I hate to think of the long term consequences there if that happens given the progress that has been made over the last few decades. But the judicial system stuff and making the UK less safe? I don't know. There will be less flow of information certainly and you're going to have a whole bunch of lawyers getting well paid to replace laws and systems that came through the EU over the last few decades but I'm not totally seeing this. Maybe I just don't know enough about the consequences in those areas.

  4. #4
    Thing is DT, would you trust this current government to run the country in a national crisis that required wartime-style measures, even if they were able to act in good faith? Me neither. (And I donít think Corbyn would be any better, just beholden to a different ideological orthodoxy.)

  5. #5
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...o-eu-live-news

    May is holding her lengthy meeting at the moment to work out how best to tackle a fourth vote on her deal but a new update has said that clerks in the commons have been working to make it as clear as possible to the Government that Speaker Bercow will not entertain having another vote on her deal. If Bercow, presumably within the coming 48 hours, is required to publicly state that the deal can never return for another vote it will mean that May's approach is finally finished and the full bracing for No Deal will begin.

  6. #6
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...o-eu-live-news

    From the pre-cabinet meeting it's being said that if May faced No Deal or Revoke Article 50 she would opt for No Deal.

    She's said to be discussing ways of getting around Bercows ban on a fourth vote but on the basis that they need more support and the DUP won't give it, this means bringing her deal back in a way that appeals to Labour members. The Tory party is said to be too fractured to be able to endure a General Election currently so one of the ideas being floated is to bring May's Deal back with a Second Referendum attached to it along with an Article 50 extension to the end of the year which means May's preferred option along with the SNPs move forward with enough Labour support to push it over the finish line.


    The actual meetings conversation may dither from this but it's blatantly the obvious way forward especially as Letwin is said to be giving up on plans for a third run of Indicative Voting. If they don't do something like this they won't be able to avoid or survive No Deal.

  7. #7
    How can anyone justify a fourth vote on the deal?

  8. #8
    How did she justify a second?

  9. #9
    Apparently her deal remains viable because it's the only official one in play and MP's haven't shown any majority for anything else. For all the last months wrangling the country's official and only choice is May's Deal or No Deal and by overwhelmingly voting against No Deal it means her deal has to remain in play.

    However, parliamentary rules means she has to be able to clearly justify each return vote with change. The first vote was the official one, the second was with her 'agreed changes' that were minimal, the third wasn't an official vote and now we face a fourth but she needs a significant change to it. If the EU won't allow any changes then something domestic has to be bolted on and a 2nd Ref is really the only card they can play without the EU having to be asked to reopen the deal.

    Pray... pray to god that it happens...

  10. #10
    They saw a far larger majority against May's deal than all but one of the 2nd round indicative votes compared to May's third time of trying - there is far less disagreement with those than May's deal, even if the total number of votes was higher for May's deal.

    May's 1st Time: Majority against: 230 (largest in parliamentary history against government)
    May's 2nd Time: Majority against: 149 (4th largest in parliamentary history against government)
    May's 3rd Time: Majority against: 58

    Indicative vote Customs union: Majority against: 3
    Indicative vote Common market 2.0: Majority against: 23
    Indicative vote Confirmatory public vote (2nd ref): Majority against: 12
    Indicative vote Parliamentary supremacy (revoke): Majority against: 102

    May's deal is well down the list.

    1st Customs union (Against 3)
    2nd Confirmatory public vote (Against 12)
    3rd Common market 2.0 (Against 23)
    4th May's 3rd Try (Against 58)
    5th Parliamentary supremacy (Against 102)
    6th May's 2nd Try (Against 149)
    7th May's 1st Try (Against 230)

    1st Round Against May

    1st Customs Union (Proposed by Ken Clarke) Against 8
    2nd Second Referendum (Proposed by Margaret Beckett) Against 27
    3rd May's 3rd Try (Against 58)
    4th Common Market 2.0 (Proposed by Nick Boles) Against 95
    5th Parliamentary supremacy (Against 102)
    6th Revoke Article 50 to prevent No Deal (Proposed by Joanna Cherry) Against 109
    7th May's 2nd Try (Against 149)
    8th May's 1st Try (Against 230)
    9th No Deal (Proposed by John Baron) Against 240
    10th Labour Plan (Proposed by Jeremy Corbyn) Against 257
    11th Contingent Preferential Arrangements (Proposed by Marcus Fysh) Against 283
    12th EFTA/EEA (Proposed by George Eustice) Against 312

    In the 1st round we see No Deal isn't bottom of the list.
    Last edited by MartyG; 02-04-2019 at 12:38 PM.

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