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Europe IV: The Final Hour

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    My prediction is, come next week the pound will spike on the back of us leaving....and then plummet a few weeks later. Come march/April we will be in touching distance of a recession.

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      Originally posted by Neon Ignition View Post
      A lot of people are going to be fed up later this year when Phase 2 starts winding up and it all kicks off again following the whole 'got Brexit done' nonsense
      I'm just waiting for the first time a major Premier league team signs an EU footballer and they can't play immediately for immigration reasons.

      Of course, that'll get fixed without delay, because as people with well-coordinated feet, we need them more than we need staff for the NHS.

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        Originally posted by Cassius_Smoke View Post
        My prediction is, come next week the pound will spike on the back of us leaving....and then plummet a few weeks later. Come march/April we will be in touching distance of a recession.
        It might be getting closer, but a recession has a specific definition: two successive quarters of negative economic growth.

        If GDP continues on its current trajectory that will happen this year, but although GDP has been in decline since August 2019 (it was 0.1% Sep-Nov 2019), it hasn't become negative growth yet - so, even if it becomes negative at the end of this month, we wouldn't be in a recession until July at the earliest, and I suspect there might be a small boost short term due to not leaving without a transition deal (so that will cusions things a little).

        The real problems will begin at the self-imposed Dec 2020 deadline which is where the real danger of a no deal exit lies.

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          I don't consider No Deal at the end of the year to be a danger, just a foregone pre-planned certainty. Like is emerging in the US, I expect future years to involve corruption investigations on current era MPs

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            Thread IV closed.
            Thread V here:

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