Europe IV: The Final Hour

[Brad]

Most people with any interest in the election will have seen her now though.

[MartyG]

1 - Does her comment not breach the BBC's own rules?

2 - For the above final national prediction chart, how does that compare to its equivalent in 2017?

Using the average of the polls (which is not quite the same as the combined polls are not straight averages), from 1st-7th 2017



YouGov was the only poll predicting a hung parliament, but the margin of error in the polling meant that a number of them weren't that far out. There were some predicting a 13% lead for the Tories (BMG) and 12% (ICM), the poll trends were very different in 2017 compared to 2019 though.

Most people with any interest in the election will have seen her now though.

If anything, I think that small piece was more likely to incentivise Labour supporters than Tories (who would smuggly be thinking they've already got it wrapped up).

[wakka]

There's a interesting piece from the Reuter's Institute on where people get their news from, the only people likely to have seen Kuenssberg at the time are over 55.



https://reutersinstitute.politics.ox...oters-use-news

I don't really know how relevant that it is though, considering the internet is basically a point of rebroadcast for anything noteworthy that happens on TV - it will reach all the channels on that chart eventually.

[Cepp]

Most people with any interest in the election will have seen her now though.

Pretty much.

Vote cast for me. Managed to mobilise my family as well who don't normally vote.

I'm supposed to be revising for a work exam I have tomorrow but it's going to be hard on election night. Wish I'd set it a week later

[QualityChimp]

it's going to be hard on election night.

You've got to be careful not to get a typo writing that out...

[Asura]

One thing's for certain; if the Tories don't win, I think the world of polling statistics is going to take a big blow.

[Neon Ignition]

Turns out the rest of my immediate family are voting Tory No real reason other than falling for the 'Corbyn's useless' (without having examples and 'to get Brexit over'

Sigh...

[Zaki]

Turns out the rest of my immediate family are voting Tory No real reason other than falling for the 'Corbyn's useless' (without having examples and 'to get Brexit over'

Sigh...

https://i1.sndcdn.com/artworks-000322933404-2qsvhm-t500x500.jpg

[MartyG]

One thing's for certain; if the Tories don't win, I think the world of polling statistics is going to take a big blow.

Not really - the margin of error in these polls is around +/- 4%, a 4% difference is the difference between a bigger conservative majority and a hung parliament. Noone should take polls as gospel, they are a rough measure, nothing more and the pollsters don't hide this fact.

-4% Tories, +4% Labour


+4% Tories -4% Labour

[Mayhem]

Voted. Now let's see what transpires...

[Neon Ignition]

Interesting to see all these stories about queues, if it is a result of more people turning out I wonder which side if any is the one making the hard push

[Cassius_Smoke]

It'll be the Pro brexit people going and voting the most. Brexit is almost like a religion now, based on blind faith.

[QualityChimp]

Due to unusually high voter turnout, conservative supporters are urged to vote tomorrow.

[QualityChimp]

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[Zaki]

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That video made me dizzy