Europe IV: The Final Hour

[Asura]

This whole thing about Ireland is driving me crazy. Someone needs to remind the UK Gov't something we all said literally the day of the referendum - they can do whatever they want on our side of the border, but Ireland/the EU get to control the other. They keep trying to give assurances and it's all just hot air.

[Neon Ignition]

It's all just scapegoating. Remain leaning MP's use it as a lazy argument to block Brexit knowing the government can't do jack to avoid it whilst the government have been using it as a lazy argument to avoid acknowledging that they've failed and addressing the multitude of other issues any withdrawal agreement faces. It's why the conversation as been dominated by it for so long now whilst the EU sits there with absolutely nothing to work with and the public waits indefinitely broadly thinking - awful as it sounds - that they don't actually care about Ireland and the backstop, hence why it never prominently came up during the referendum campaign. It's all going to backfire though, at some point something has to give and either they come up with something the EU agrees to and then can't hide behind it anymore or they crash out and then have to face an economically devastated public anger because they still can't actually move anything forward as the backstop remains a key blockade on any trade deal.

[Dogg Thang]

they still can't actually move anything forward as the backstop remains a key blockade on any trade deal.

This is what I find fascinating about any push for a No Deal scenario. Unless the UK plans to cease all trading with the EU (which I guess is possible but seems highly unlikely), deals need to be made and I don't see those deals getting all that much easier over time. But I don't know if the backstop will be a blockage. It might but there may be a sense that, once that hard border is in place, it's done and any trade deals just have to accept that it is now a permanent fixture.

[Asura]

It might but there may be a sense that, once that hard border is in place, it's done and any trade deals just have to accept that it is now a permanent fixture.

I think (and I apologise to any Irish/NI members as I'm not as familiar with how the Irish border works as they likely are), that for the government, the Irish border and how it ties to Brexit is like this weird game of pass-the-parcel, where the parcel will insta-kill whoever finally opens it. Nobody wants to be the person who is seen as responsible for it when the music stops, because the current state of near-peace in Ireland is predicated on a delicate balance of compromises and agreements that Brexit, no matter how it goes, is going to stomp all over. So if the government just runs out the clock, they can go by whatever emerges from the result and no-one seems to take the blame other than the Brexit vote.

The Brexiteers, all of the millions of them, didn't give a crap about Ireland, and they didn't give a crap about Gibraltar either. If they believed these things would "just be okay" then they're idiots who perhaps should've stayed at home on polling day.

Part of me feels that a lack of vision is part of the issue here. Call me old-fashioned, but I think political leaders should lead. Why the hell does Boris need 12 days to explain how he feels Brexit should work? Why didn't he go into number-10 already knowing that?!

[Dogg Thang]

So if the government just runs out the clock, they can go by whatever emerges from the result and no-one seems to take the blame other than the Brexit vote.

You're right on all that. But nobody taking the blame isn't going to stop any problems that result from all this. As you say, the balance in NI is very delicate and the Good Friday Agreement is really only part of that in the sense that some of the specifics aren't as relevant as the spirit of the agreement and what people have taken it to mean. I'm fairly sure, for example, that you can have a hard border within the terms of the agreement but it tramples all over the spirit of it and arguing that it's technically okay won't make the slightest difference to people living in NI and just south of the border. It could get very messy and a lot of great work could be undone very quickly. And this ultimately will be a UK problem.

[Asura]

You're right on all that. But nobody taking the blame isn't going to stop any problems that result from all this. As you say, the balance in NI is very delicate and the Good Friday Agreement is really only part of that in the sense that some of the specifics aren't as relevant as the spirit of the agreement and what people have taken it to mean. I'm fairly sure, for example, that you can have a hard border within the terms of the agreement but it tramples all over the spirit of it and arguing that it's technically okay won't make the slightest difference to people living in NI and just south of the border. It could get very messy and a lot of great work could be undone very quickly. And this ultimately will be a UK problem.

I worry that a decent % of the Brexit voters, in response, would just want to send in troops and take over Eire again.

[Dogg Thang]

I worry that a decent % of the Brexit voters, in response, would just want to send in troops and take over Eire again.

Possibly but the unfortunate thing for all the people in NI and around it is that I feel like, mostly, people in the UK and Ireland alike just would rather wash their hands of the whole thing. Like, just pretend it doesn't exist. Which does a huge number of people a disservice but I don't see trouble in NI becoming a massive motivating factor for anyone one way or another unless, and I obviously don't want this to happen, they bring violence to London and Dublin again. And it would suck so badly for any of that to happen.

[Asura]

people in the UK and Ireland alike just would rather wash their hands of the whole thing. Like, just pretend it doesn't exist. Which does a huge number of people a disservice

This is definitely the case. Back in the 90s, I definitely recall a pervasive attitude of adults around me just wishing the Irish situation would just "go away".

[Dogg Thang]

Who knew occupying foreign territories could get so messy.

[fishbowlhead]

Who knew occupying foreign territories could get so messy.

Oooooooh, oooooooh, i knew i knew!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/19/labour-activists-to-push-for-party-to-campaign-for-remain

Labour conference tomorrow and Labour Activists are prepping for a last ditch push to get Labour in a pro-Remain position.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/fresh-brexit-talks-row-uk-eu-proposals-secret

The UK has asked the European Brexit Negotiation team not to disclose any proposals it submits... with the EU27.

[Cassius_Smoke]

Probably because its on a par with something Baldrick would come up with.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/momentum-bid-to-abolish-deputy-leader-tom-watsons-post

The head of Momentum and a Corbyn ally has tabled a last minute motion to try and have Tom Watson removed as Deputy Party Leader of Labour. The motion is currently struggling to be authorised but they will be attempting it again tomorrow, Watson having long been irking Corbyn by championing the Labour Party members views rather than Corbyn's career ambitions.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/thornberry-labour-could-back-tory-brexit-deal-in-exchange-for-referendum

But the voices of dissent would still continue as Emily Thornberry has also now said Labour should back Remain and that the party should keep on the table the idea of agreeing to May's old deal in order to secure a Second Referendum

[Cepp]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...m-watsons-post

The head of Momentum and a Corbyn ally has tabled a last minute motion to try and have Tom Watson removed as Deputy Party Leader of Labour. The motion is currently struggling to be authorised but they will be attempting it again tomorrow, Watson having long been irking Corbyn by championing the Labour Party members views rather than Corbyn's career ambitions.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/20/thornberry-labour-could-back-tory-brexit-deal-in-exchange-for-referendum

But the voices of dissent would still continue as Emily Thornberry has also now said Labour should back Remain and that the party should keep on the table the idea of agreeing to May's old deal in order to secure a Second Referendum

This is really starting to piss me off. It's so underhanded and dirty, not to mention it takes the focus off other, you know, more pressing matters.