United Kingdom V: Son of a beach

[dvdx2]

Hope you managed to grab a few bottles of ale, laddie!! :-P

off course!

a few cases of brewdog lost lager, 8 nukey browns, and was at the vinyard and picked up 6 moosehead and 6 very nice unfiltered polish beer!

gotta survive romeros day of the dead somehow!

[charlesr]

Can anyone explain what yesterday's announcement meant in terms of letting the virus spread enough for a herd immunity to develop before imposing lock down? I thought herd immunity is something you get when most are vaccinated. Or basically any explanation about why we haven't locked down already apart from "people will get tired of it".

I wanted to take my daughter out of school for a couple of weeks, but my ex is saying just do what the government says, so not sure what way to proceed

[Dogg Thang]

Charles, what I would say is consider how head lice spreads in schools compared with how it spreads in homes or in adult spaces. If you wanted to bring head lice into your home, sending your kids out to school is the way to do it. I think it's the same with this. Doctors and experts are recommending social distancing, handwashing and being careful about what you touch. Schools are the opposite of social distancing and kids are not great at that other stuff at the best of times.

[charlesr]

https://videosgifs.com/omg/cuidado-con-la-avalancha-coronavirus/

[Asura]

Can anyone explain what yesterday's announcement meant in terms of letting the virus spread enough for a herd immunity to develop before imposing lock down? I thought herd immunity is something you get when most are vaccinated. Or basically any explanation about why we haven't locked down already apart from "people will get tired of it".

It's based on the idea that we can't stop the virus, because our society isn't set up in a manner where we can simply quarantine vast swathes of the country. Our best hope is just to delay the virus so that the rate of new, serious cases is slower, so that the NHS can keep up. That means the virus will be with us for longer, but the effect will on the whole be less severe and fewer people will die.

Also, by doing this, large numbers of people in the population will have the virus, have the care they need, and recover from it - and thus will be immune.

Within the British population right now, most of us are immune to Tuberculosis, because we were vaccinated from it in school. However, there are people among us who aren't immune. Those people are protected by our "herd immunity".

Think of them as like isolated ships floating in a big sea. Diseases travel from person-to-person, so if a ship floats on the sea with a disease, it can only give it to a vulnerable person if two of those ships bump into each other, which is very unlikely. As the ships are so isolated, there can't really be an outbreak of Tuberculosis, as there's never enough people who aren't immune in the same place at the same time. Any outbreak stops once it infects maybe a handful of people.

Right now, for COVID-19, the sea is packed with boats; the whole surface. As people gain immunity, there are fewer boats, until it's like Tuberculosis. This is fine because for most people, they're either naturally immune, the disease is asymptomatic, mild, or basically just like a bout of flu. Those people who are particularly susceptible (e.g. if you are immuno-compromised) are probably already self-isolating to reduce the chance of infection. This process creates the "open ocean" which will allow those of us who are vulnerable to not get the disease, and some of us will just be lucky enough not to get it regardless.

Personally I'm happy we're not closing schools. In Japan they did that and it just packed the city centres and shopping malls with kids, who would otherwise be with their classmates but semi-isolated from the wider population. The schools need to be given provision to get the kids to wash regularly and similar measures, but I don't think closing the schools really fixes anything*.

*bear in mind that this is because I have zero faith in the UK population to force their children to stay at home, even if the government says to do so. I just don't think they will, and it'll just be a holiday for the kids.

[Dogg Thang]

As people gain immunity

How? As you say, it works with TB because we vaccinate at a young age. How does that work here?

[Brad]

They get the virus and don't die.

[Team Andromeda]

It's based on the idea that we can't stop the virus, because our society isn't set up in a manner where we can simply quarantine vast swathes of the country. .

The trouble is, it's not based on anything. It's a new Virus so most of it is guesswork even from the experts. How many people are really going to isolate them and their familes for weeks on end, with no contact to the outside world and never leaving their house?

There are a few beauties in my aera. Calling for the GOV to do more, to ban Schools, Sports Ect, but can't wait to watch Stereophonics with thier kids down Cardiff on Sunday. You just can't make it up somtimes

[Dogg Thang]

They get the virus and don't die.

Has it been shown that this makes anyone immune yet? Developing immunity is usually a long and uncertain process and, without a vaccine in place, this could just mean many people getting sicker and sicker and not developing anything other than more sickness or death. Last I heard, people can get reinfected with covid19. Has that info changed?

Also even if people develop immunity, this plan essentially amounts to letting everyone get it and letting it kill everyone it can kill. That's insane.

[Asura]

Has it been shown that this makes anyone immune yet? Developing immunity is usually a long and uncertain process and, without a vaccine in place, this could just mean many people getting sicker and sicker and not developing anything other than more sickness or death. Last I heard, people can get reinfected with covid19. Has that info changed?

To be fair, I think there is stuff which is genuinely unknown right now, but we can only work on what we know.

People are asking "what if the mortality rate is wrong?"; the answer's simple, it's "more people are going to die" but what else can we do?

[Brad]

Has it been shown that this makes anyone immune yet? Developing immunity is usually a long and uncertain process and, without a vaccine in place, this could just mean many people getting sicker and sicker and not developing anything other than more sickness or death. Last I heard, people can get reinfected with covid19. Has that info changed?

Also even if people develop immunity, this plan essentially amounts to letting everyone get it and letting it kill everyone it can kill. That's insane.

Look. I'm not a doctor ;-)

[Dogg Thang]

To be fair, I think there is stuff which is genuinely unknown right now, but we can only work on what we know.

People are asking "what if the mortality rate is wrong?"; the answer's simple, it's "more people are going to die" but what else can we do?

So basically what you're saying is the herd immunity plan is no plan at all. So the TB example isn't relevant because there is no vaccine and everything else is an unknown. There is no herd immunity right now.

The experts and people who are currently living it in places like Italy are recommending social distance. So that's what we can do.

[Dogg Thang]

Look. I'm not a doctor ;-)

You're not a doctor yet. I still believe in you.

[Brad]

The trouble is, it's not based on anything. It's a new Virus so most of it is guesswork even from the experts. How many people are really going to isolate them and their familes for weeks on end

Based on the empty shelves at the supermarket just now I'm gonna say, ohh, I dunno, everyone?

[Team Andromeda]

Based on the empty shelves at the supermarket just now I'm gonna say, ohh, I dunno, everyone?

They still 'went' to the Supermarket in the 1st place. So who knows they could have picked it then. No one knows that's the issue