Nice thread title
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Cheery info time ... based on current increases in infections (and variables remaining the same), we should be at just below 10K in three weeks.
Current daily increase is around 1.17, growth is exponential
And by 60 days, if no action was taken (like quaranteening everyone) and increase remained constant, we'd be at 4,434,021, critical cases massively outstripping available hospital beds.
Isn't exponential virus growth fascinating
(Don't panic yet though - the growth variable has many influences, even if zero action was taken that daily increase rate could well become smaller).Last edited by MartyG; 10-03-2020, 15:52.Comment
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Yeah, I was just trying to get a real sense of this earlier because I veer from worried to flippant to worried in an instant so what I did was look at the WHO reports. They update them every day but all the days are there so you can just look page by page. How Italy jumped is alarming. They had 3 confirmed cases for about a week and then the numbers shot up, along with the death figures. The speed at which it jumped was crazy. Some other figures are interesting, for example where there are huge numbers of confirmed cases but no reported deaths. For whatever reason, Italy has a high death toll. But you can go and browse day by day and, if you look at the history of the countries where the numbers jumped and look at our own, while we might not be in for the same thing, it's kind of scary. And that's just looking at the numbers.
Edit: Here they are - https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...uation-reportsComment
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When I did the maths yesterday, the prediction for today was from 319 was 373, so it was bang on, but the rate has actually decreased quite a bit from previous days. A bigger data set is needed, it's still quite early in the spread.
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Yep, we’re still in the opening montage of this movie.Comment
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With a 14 day incubation, we could all already be infected. Edit.... Only 5 days.... Sorry
Is it like flu where it just keeps coming back? Or will it just be a once and done thing?Last edited by charlesr; 10-03-2020, 22:03.Comment
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There are cases (apparently) were people have recovered only to catch it again.
Also 20% of the carriers can have no symptoms, so you could have it and never know.Comment
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Not sure where you got the 14 days from, latest stats show the average is 5.1 days: https://www.sciencealert.com/new-res...us-is-5-1-daysOriginally posted by charlesr View Post
With regards to it returning, I don't believe there's a consensus on that yet, it depends if immunity sticks around and whether it mutates enough that natural immunity no longer recognises it: https://globalnews.ca/news/6623287/c...le-infections/ - if immunity sticks long enough, the virus becomes unviable as there are no longer any hosts for it, so it dies off. Don't worry though, there will be another unrelated coronavirus at some future point even if COVID 19 goes away, perhaps even better at spreading across the world with a better PR team.Comment
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This epidemic is the best thing to ever happen to the central managerial 'Ops' twats in the university where I work. They're emailing out updates, bulletins, reassurance, and contingency plans, hand over fist. It's like they've all imagined themselves centre-stage in all their favourite disaster movies, and they're just there...in the nerve centre of it all...calling the shots, just like Ed Harris in Apollo 13. It's really comical.Comment
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We're probably only another fortnight from Cillian Murphy waking up in hospital on his own, still better than the disappointment Robert Carlyle's wife in for a few months later when the infected come a knockingComment
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What if they are not telling us that the ones who have died are coming back from the dead??Comment
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The Bank of England has cut interest rates down to 0.25% to try and sustain the economy
Whilst Health Minister Nadine Dorries has been confirmed to have Coronavirus, within the last week she has been in contact with most of the cabinet including Johnson.Comment
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A second UK MP has entered self-isolation following a previous meeting last week with Nadine Dorries as the NHS 111 service comes under criticism for only offering advise and testing for those with confirmed contact with confirmed cases meaning that realistically a high proportion of cases will be ignored.Comment
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Good to see covid 19 is trying the Guy Fawks approachOriginally posted by Neon Ignition View Posthttps://www.theguardian.com/business...erest-rate-cut
The Bank of England has cut interest rates down to 0.25% to try and sustain the economy
Whilst Health Minister Nadine Dorries has been confirmed to have Coronavirus, within the last week she has been in contact with most of the cabinet including Johnson.
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