United Kingdom VI: Summer Lovin'

[Zaki]

No one said this government engineered a virus...

[Cassius_Smoke]

I predict now that the UK will be one of the last countries in the world to secure a vaccine when one is available.

[MartyG]

I predict now that the UK will be one of the last countries in the world to secure a vaccine when one is available.

How'd you figure? The vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford is likely to be one of the first to market - if Johnson was leading the project then I'd agree, but thankfully he isn't.

[Golgo]

Just read the phrase "smart hyperlocal lockdown". I must say it's become quite enjoyable to collect all the new government jargon being invented and thrown about in a desperate display of competence. It isn't quite as good as a "moonshot" or "circuit-break", but it's not bad.

[MartyG]

A smart hyperlocal lockdown across 48 counties is better than a national lockdown though, surely ?

[Golgo]

A smart hyperlocal lockdown across 48 counties is better than a national lockdown though, surely ?

Exactly so! That way you can cover every square inch of the territory without having to resort to a "disastrous" national lockdown. Ingenious.

[fallenangle]

Lets get some real statistics into the discussion here so that we might get some true idea of the problem and scale of the the second C-19 spike as it develops or not.

As I've said all along it is the hospitalisation figures that matters not the number of C-19 infection cases reported. The latter are open to question and interpretation. This is why I would humbly suggest concentrating on how many people are actually put into hospital by C-19 during this period. Such figures don't lie or certainly are not as open to interpretation.

These are the NHS's own figures for early September so will provide a good base to start from and that is assuming we will be able to get hold of the equivalent figures for the coming weeks:-

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

As can can be seen England 03.09.20:-

1). C-19 victims made up about 2.5% of patients on ventilators ie. seriously ill.

2). In the NW it was almost double that average figure, 4.5%. Presumably the cause for the new local lockdown regulations applied to that part of the country. The total number of other patients diagnosed with C-19 ie. including those not as ill/recovering reflects that higher percentage too.

3). Interestingly in London ventilated C-19 patients were less than 2% ie. below average and all C-19 cases occupied about 0.5% of beds overall.

4). C-19 victims took up 0.5% of all occupied hospital beds in England overall too.

5). That last table on NHS staff absences due to illness/self-isolation is arguably the most interesting.

[nakamura]

I'm at a total loss to understand how dumb and selfish the public are. Brexit sure, but this is worse.

[Neon Ignition]

I wonder how long we'll go before everyone admits these fake local lockdowns don't make squat difference

The NHS figures in the links above tally pretty much with the daily figures. It's tripled in around 18 days.

[Hirst]

I'd just like to show people who aren't living under any kind of local restrictions just how muddled and confused the entire thing has been, so I've knocked up a timeline to the best of my ability. This is based on living in a suburb of Dewsbury, Kirklees, West Yorkshire.

23 March: England lockdown started with immediate notice, announced on TV during daily coronavirus briefing that was widely announced in advance.

13 May: Across England, can meet one other person outdoors from 2m away.

15 June: Across England, non-essential shops can re-open.

23 June: Lockdown eased in England, with people able to meet up with social distancing measures in place.

4 July: Can stay overnight, abiding by the 2m rules and what-not.

30 July: Kirklees re-introduction of measures announced at 9:15pm, notice of midnight. Announcement came via Matt Hancock's Twitter account. I only knew because I was browsing the Internet at the time. No government information said you had to follow Matt Hancock on Twitter. No local or regional news outlets informed ahead of time, missed the cut-off for the evening local news, etc. Most people didn't even know until the next day. Exact details not issued at this stage, so people needing more specific advice (e.g. how does it affect support bubbles) had no idea whether they were in breach of the rules or not. Pubs are still going to be open though.

31 July: Specific information finally came out, the next day, on the .gov website under a section explaining lockdown restrictions for "North West England". Kirklees is not in North West England. ITV News published a regional map on the TV news where Lancashire, West Yorkshire and Greater Manchester were all in the wrong places, leading to wild conspiracy theories that politicians and the media might not know or care much about the North.

28 August: Announcement that rules would be relaxed in Kirklees, except in urban areas of Dewsbury. No information given as to what constitutes an urban area of Dewsbury - unclear as to whether it means Dewsbury centre or the suburbs surrounding it which all have different names. No way of checking by postcode or anything like that. Eventually figured out that the information published was relating to electoral wards (it didn't say that) and though the house is in the north of Dewsbury, due to the complexities of politics it comes under the ward of Dewsbury East, so restrictions would continue.

2 September: Restrictions eased for Kirklees apart from the above mentioned.

18 September: Announcement of this Rule of Six, which technically makes no difference to affected areas of Kirklees as you weren't able to meet anyway unless you were in a support bubble or caring or probably some other exemptions.

22 September: Restrictions reintroduced, so the areas of Kirklees that weren't under restrictions were now under restrictions, but the areas that were under restrictions are still under restrictions.

I've largely been able to figure stuff out as I go along using the Internet and what-not and I've had problems at various times figuring out what rules apply and where. It doesn't surprise me at all that most people don't have a clue, even the ones who want to try and follow the rules. Information is coming from no clear source, the details of announcements have been issued after the restrictions have already taken place, there's no clear point of advice if you aren't sure how something applies to you (things like caring responsibilities are a minefield).

You've got to bear in mind that a lot of older people are absolutely terrified of the idea of breaking rules, so if things aren't 100% clear they will worry like crazy, especially if you do something as ridiculous as announce a change of rules from midnight with under 3 hours notice. I bet there's a lot of people out there who are still trying to convince their gran that they won't be arrested for falling asleep at their house on the 30th of July. I have to say I'm relieved my grandparents all passed a few years back, because they would be driving themselves insane with worry if I had to go inside and sort their boiler out or something.

As of now, most people round here have gone onto a system of following what they think is right and sod the rules, some going back to the March style "you must not go outside" and some freely associating with their friends and citing the Cummings clause.

[MartyG]

As of now, most people round here have gone onto a system of following what they think is right and sod the rules, some going back to the March style "you must not go outside" and some freely associating with their friends and citing the Cummings clause.

You've just undone a lot of that with the final sentence - it's not a case of not following the rules because confusion, which admitedly have changed over time and more a case of sod the rules because Cummings.

I can't say for all as I haven't checked all of them, but most councils have the current restrictions listed on their website, Kirklees being no exception to that, so the most current information is available, which is what you should be going with.

https://www.kirklees.gov.uk/beta/health-and-well-being/covid19-restrictions.aspx

[fallenangle]

Its not just breaking rules the elderly are scared of but they're scared full stop.

That's what I was talking about earlier - project frighten granny into lockdown has worked and still is working very effectively keeping them isolated in some cases almost to the point of paranoia.

I have an elderly relative who because of their recent health history is a prime C-19 candidate. If this had happened two or three years ago she would be a statistic as she was in and out of care homes, hospitals and respite homes with various ailments including a suspected stroke.

At one point she picked up a respiratory infection in hospital and was in a coma for 48 hours. We were warned that the antibiotics might not work and she'd croak but over 18 months on now she's home and although disabled and needing a full time carer as independent as she can be.

Point is that she doesn't even like being wheeled into her garden now and as for going out further afield to the shops with her carer she has a full on panic attack if that's even suggested. I'll admit there's more to it than just being scared of getting C-19. She has had two suspected TIAs and not what she once was mentally. But project scare granny is undoubtedly playing a role underpinning her recently developed fear of the outside.

[Hirst]

You've just undone a lot of that with the final sentence - it's not a case of not following the rules because confusion, which admitedly have changed over time and more a case of sod the rules because Cummings.

I can't say for all as I haven't checked all of them, but most councils have the current restrictions listed on their website, Kirklees being no exception to that, so the most current information is available, which is what you should be going with.

https://www.kirklees.gov.uk/beta/hea...trictions.aspx

The current information may well be available now, my point is that it is rarely available at the time as the governments clearly weren't liaising with the councils. They had no information when the restrictions came in on the 30th of July because the council found out about it at the exact same time as everyone else - a few hours before midnight, when they were shut. The council couldn't publish detailed information themselves until the government had done it, which they'd not done until the next day (by which time the restrictions were already in place, based on a press release that didn't go into exact detail of what they actually meant). There was no provision for people who don't have Internet access, because the local press hadn't been informed either.

I'm not saying what I'm doing, I'm just saying as an aside what is happening round here. People certainly understand the basic rules to some extent, but trying to figure out the exact thing to do in their situation is like pulling teeth. As a result, even the people who claim to know the rules like the back of the hands will admit there's many situations that are incredibly woolly. There's a list of bulletpoints on that website, but if you aren't covered by those bulletpoints, who do you ask? There's no helpline and even if there was, chances are it would be "your guess is as good as mine".

[MartyG]

No I get that - the communication from central governments to local councils has been very poor, but there are a lot of folks who, regardless of understanding what the rules are, are choosing to ignore them anyway (as your final paragraph stated).

[Hirst]

Sorry for any misunderstanding, I'm certainly not trying to claim that people doing stupid stuff like getting in boozy crowds with their mates in town are justified because the rules are often unclear. I think people who are doing stuff that is obviously wrong will know full well they are doing so and couldn't give a toss.

It's more situations like support bubbles, people delivering care, people from a non-restrictions area visiting people in an area with restrictions (and vice-versa). The announcements given rarely go into this kind of detail and whenever there's changes it leads to speculation, but with nobody actually giving any answers and people often having to figure it out themselves often several days after it has already "happened", false information being dished out over Facebook, etc etc.

Sometimes it becomes more clear later, but more often than not it is well after the actual announcement has been made. The 30th of July one was particularly stupid, because the police were apparently meant to start enforcing new rules based on a Twitter post with scant detail and no real notice. They obviously didn't, but the fact this wasn't even considered shows the complete lack of thinking from the top tiers of the government.