Nintendo Switch: Thread 09

[Ouenben]

I'm not sure I can see the Switch outselling the DS or PS2 tbh but it'd be a hell of an accomplishmen if it did.

Can't see there being many of any 3DS ports from Nintendo, they wouldn't even port the Zelda titles or Metroid trilogy despite a lot of demand for them.

[cutmymilk]

And the fact they are already finished and available (by bedroom coders).

[Nu-Eclipse]

I'm not sure I can see the Switch outselling the DS or PS2 tbh but it'd be a hell of an accomplishmen if it did.

As it stands, Switch is "only" 40m or so off DS and PS2 so it isn't entirely beyond the realms of possibility.

Switch surpassing PS4 and original Game Boy/Game Boy Color is perhaps more likely - roughly 3m and 5m behind those respectively.

[Neon Ignition]

All I'll ever need to bow out is a valid case this is wrong:

"It'd be a downsizing at 50m because the Switch would ultimately have to not just cover hardware sales for their console divisions but also cover the vacuum created by the end of their dedicated handheld division. If Nintendo launches a Nintendo 4DS or what not then 50m Switches is a big win over 12m WiiU's, if they don't make another handheld then 50m Switches is a downturn on the combined 88m 3DS/WiiU sales they previously enjoyed."

[DeathAdder]

All I'll ever need to bow out is a valid case this is wrong:

"It'd be a downsizing at 50m because the Switch would ultimately have to not just cover hardware sales for their console divisions but also cover the vacuum created by the end of their dedicated handheld division. If Nintendo launches a Nintendo 4DS or what not then 50m Switches is a big win over 12m WiiU's, if they don't make another handheld then 50m Switches is a downturn on the combined 88m 3DS/WiiU sales they previously enjoyed."

I thought you seemed to understand this the last time it was explained to you.

That is wrong because it fails to take into account the significant overlap of the Wii U and 3DS user base. Not only that, with so many different variants of the 3DS, not to mention its region-locking, there will be many people who have bought more than one sort of 3DS. Granted there have been three distinct versions of the Switch, but that is only half the different 3DS versions.

Case in point - I bought seven 3DSs and one Wii U. To date, I have bought “only” three Switches. So number of consoles does not equal active user base, especially if you are adding a handheld to a home console. I have spent far more on Switch games and accessories than I did on 3DS plus Wii U.

[Nu-Eclipse]

All I'll ever need to bow out is to repeatedly double down on just how wrong I am

Corrected that for you.

I thought you seemed to understand this the last time it was explained to you.

No point. He'd clearly rather keep digging instead of stopping when the hole is way too big.

No worries. We'll just keep on reminding him that he is wrong.

[Ouenben]

I thought you seemed to understand this the last time it was explained to you.

That is wrong because it fails to take into account the significant overlap of the Wii U and 3DS user base. Not only that, with so many different variants of the 3DS, not to mention its region-locking, there will be many people who have bought more than one sort of 3DS. Granted there have been three distinct versions of the Switch, but that is only half the different 3DS versions.

Case in point - I bought seven 3DSs and one Wii U. To date, I have bought “only” three Switches. So number of consoles does not equal active user base, especially if you are adding a handheld to a home console. I have spent far more on Switch games and accessories than I did on 3DS plus Wii U.

I also only bought one Wii U, but 4 3DS consoles (original launch unit, 3DS XL, New 3DS XL and an original 2DS for my nephew) and I've only bought one Switch which is unlikely to change, though I would probably pick up a Switch 2/successor.

[Neon Ignition]

That's because there's no real basis behind the assumption that every Nintendo customer buys a dozen iterations of their hardware meaning they actually have a very small user base. It's baseless assumption that every WiiU owner had a 3DS or that 3DS users regularly buy every variant going. In reality it will only be a small percentage who buy so many units of the same machine. Even that argument then assumes that people bought multiple WiiU'd/DS's and WiiU'd and multiple 3DS's but then only a single Switch for the argument to stand.

In essence, to think that had the Switch sold less than the WiiU and 3DS would have been a good thing you would have to think those machines selling less than Wii and DS was a good thing too. I'm doubtful Nintendo shareholders agree

[wakka]

I'm completely lost with this. It seems totally academic since Switch has sold way more than 3DS and WiiU.

[Neon Ignition]

Absolutely, it's a discussion from 2018 which is why it seems so irrelevant

[DeathAdder]

"the assumption that every Nintendo customer buys a dozen iterations"

"they actually have a very small user base"

" to think that had the Switch sold less than the WiiU and 3DS would have been a good thing"

Nobody is saying any of those, especially not that ridiculous third one. The point is that total number of consoles sold does not equal user base because of upgrades and overlap of Wii U and 3DS owners. Therefore it is not a black and white measure of the Switch's success. I get that you don't want to concede the point to Nu-Eclipse but when you're at the point of having to pretend I said that selling fewer consoles is a good thing, it'a hard to see it as anything other than deliberate obtuseness.

[dataDave]

Can't we get back to discussing frame rates?

[randombs]

Can't we get back to discussing frame rates?

Switch frame rates are higher than those of the Wii U and 3DS combined.

[Neon Ignition]

There's an overlap of owners/upgrade rebuys and then there's a near 45%-50% drop in sales which was the point the original discussion was fantasy scenarioing, especially since it was never about 50m being a failure, just about if Nintendo would have found itself cornered if interests in handheld devices continued to wane this gen and Switch hadn't compensated for merging both of their hardware lines. It's effectively the XBO situation, was a hit or a disappointing result?

But, again, the 10th thread will be due to start soon and I'll save everyone time by not having another out of context dive into the subject again
And to put things back on the most important detail.... Switch framerates, they're fine as they are

[QualityChimp]

New thread 10 here:

https://bordersdown.net/threads/130439-Nintendo-Switch-Thread-10