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The Rise and Fall of an Industry

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    The Rise and Fall of an Industry

    As we all know the .com thing was supposed to be the next big thing. But the bottom fell out and all that is left are a couple of companies. This was the thing that was supposed to change our lives. Make our jobs easier, bring us all closer together.

    Now I fear the same for Videogames. Market Saturation will hit a certain point and then we'll be dealing with diminishing returns. I really believe that inevitably the bottom will fall out of the console market.

    Right now the big 3 are dependent and competing with each other. If Microsoft were to fold, we would have a market practically devoid of competition and thus more shovelware to hit the streets. Nintendo on the other hand has billions in assets that its clinging too. They didn't buy Capcom or Sega, neither did Microsoft for that matter. Why, because the cost would far outway the benefits.

    Microsoft is losing money from its home division, Nintendo is making a profit becuase of cheap hardware costs, and Sony is propped up by it's computer entertainment division.

    What we see in the market is the result of this. Everything is in a holding pattern, nobody is making a big moves because they are worried about the Next Generation. In the mean time this generation is getting crap.

    Sure we'll get an innovative game like Ico, or a great franchise like Winning Eleven. But think about how much other filler is in between. For every Viewtiful Joe, there's an Azurik or two or three. For every Winning Eleven there's Madden or NCAA. For every Rez or Virtua Fighter, there's Tekken or Tao Fang. The ratio of good original titles is diminishing.

    In the meantime the videogame press is hyping up more of the same thing. The Next GTA, Metal Gear,Halo etc...instead of focusing on the original games. Which is why the west will never see games like My Cooking.

    What does this all boil down too? Well basically what I'm saying is the decline won't be swift and relatively painless like the .coms, it will be more like a slow death. How soon after the Next Generation, will they start making promises about how the one after that will deliver what we want. First the weak ones will go, the 3DO's, Acclaims, Crave etc. Then merger mania, ending with a nicely hemoginized dull lifeless gaming market.

    PS2 was supposed to look like those demos of years ago, it is just starting too now. Xbox was supposed to be everything that PS2 was and more, and instead the only thing that sets them apart is a few exclusives. And Gamecube, well the one thing Nintendo has right is that they weren't going out to create an all in one entertainment device.

    This wicked long post was inspired by the discontent I was reading about people losing interest in games. I truely believe that the market has dictated that.

    #2
    It'll get like the music industry. Everybody is going to be pirating or 'sharing' their software in 5 years and the traditional publishing structure will collapse.

    Then we'll see developers selling their games direct to the consumer over the internet. People will pay for a product they enjoy as a gesture of good will. Quality will win over marketing.

    The short termist nature of modern publishers is whats damaging the market. Development teams are too large and alot of advertising is needed to make an impact. As cost goes up innovation goes down. It happened to the arcade industry and it'll happen to the home market.

    Comment


      #3
      This industry is going nowhere Buster....there is far to much money involved in it now and Joe Public is well and truly hooked.

      Hasn't this mythical collapse been coming for years? Companies will merge, new alliances will be struck but games will still be made and we will still buy them.

      Comment


        #4
        I'm hoping that content will be the next big thing next gen. Not online gaming, not super photorealistic graphics. If this happens then the videogame industry is going places.

        I don't think large scale consolidation would be so bad either. If there are a few large scale publishers, then it will be more feasible to comission original games instead of low risk massmarket licences. I think mergers will prevent a total collapse, should it be possible.

        The downturn we're wittnessing now is the natural fallout from market saturation.
        What's important is that other publishers learn from the mistakes of 3DO and others.

        Comment


          #5
          Whilst I agree with your comments about originality Che, I feel your view that all the companies will die is a bit wide.
          Gaming sales are reaching new peeks, just look at the sales of Vice City, The Sims, Matrix and Dance Stage Euromix. All these titles are huge sellers. The PS2 is also the biggest selling console ever by a mile.
          As for "Microsoft folding", well that aint gonna happen. As long as they have a monopoly on the operating system of 95% of the world's computers, they will continue to battle on with consoles. Until people wake up and realise that the Mac OS is infinetly superior, Microsoft will have billions to pour into their X-Box. They are slowly turning peoples heads towards their brick (heck, even I have one), signing up quality titles that many want to play.
          Nintendo? Well they are lucky that they have a huge base of loyal fans like me that will buy their machines and games irrespective of what the mainstream says.

          So that's not such a grim out look after all, is it?

          Comment


            #6
            The downturn we're wittnessing now is the natural fallout from market saturation
            But in monetary terms isn't the industry making more than a small country?

            My worry is mergers will stifle creativity but you may be right that they could also create a stable base from which innovation is possible.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by acidforblood
              The downturn we're wittnessing now is the natural fallout from market saturation
              But in monetary terms isn't the industry making more than a small country?
              Sorry, I was referring to the drop in share prices of many publishers and the demise of 3DO et al.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by acidforblood
                But in monetary terms isn't the industry making more than a small country?
                Exactly. The company I work for (Game) has posted record profits, other retailers are doing similarily well off Games and aren't we always being told that the games industry makes more than movies?

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by Molloy
                  It'll get like the music industry. Everybody is going to be pirating or 'sharing' their software in 5 years and the traditional publishing structure will collapse.
                  Is being like the music industry such a bad thing? Because of the piracy and 'sharing' consumers are now benefiting from lower prices, faster releases and more content for their money (videos and other extra features on cds).

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by JammyD
                    Originally posted by acidforblood
                    The downturn we're wittnessing now is the natural fallout from market saturation
                    But in monetary terms isn't the industry making more than a small country?
                    Sorry, I was referring to the drop in share prices of many publishers and the demise of 3DO et al.
                    Yep it's turning into survival of the fittest isn't it, evolution i guess.

                    Can the finger of blame, that is if you think there is a problem, be pointed at Sony? They came from nowhere with a fantastic entrance to the world of gaming but the follow up machine is, well a bit mediocre. Much like a new band crashing onto the music scene but struggling with the difficult to make second album.

                    Or is that a crock.....?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Oh no i can feel the industry drifting slowly away from my finger tips ...
                      Oh wait i can't

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by acidforblood
                        This industry is going nowhere Buster....there is far to much money involved in it now and Joe Public is well and truly hooked.

                        Hasn't this mythical collapse been coming for years? Companies will merge, new alliances will be struck but games will still be made and we will still buy them.
                        Well its not happening overnight, what I'm saying is. If it doesn't collapse we're left swimming in a sea of medocrity and me too titles. Or we'll be told how the next generation will the ONE. JammyD made a good point about the next gen, maybe they could focus on content. Instead its quantity. If I go to EB I can't begin to tell you how many mediocre titles line the shelves.

                        It would be sad if the only way it survives is by appealing to the lemmings.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Che Musashi
                          If I go to EB I can't begin to tell you how many mediocre titles line the shelves.
                          Same with movies. Same with CDs. Same with books. Why do you expect gaming to be any different?

                          Seems to be that the output in all forms of entertainment is 95% nuclear waste 5% golddust. The trick is to just grab the good stuff

                          Comment


                            #14
                            True, Ish so true. That's what I do or try to do. So instead of being different the game industry, instead of refining entertainment is just like every other form of entertainment.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Che Musashi
                              True, Ish so true. That's what I do or try to do. So instead of being different the game industry, instead of refining entertainment is just like every other form of entertainment.
                              Yeah I don't think its refined entertainment. Its just a different, and my favourite, form

                              Comment

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