BPX088: When This Baby Hits 155m Sold, You're Going To See Some Serious...

[Neon Ignition]

With todays update on its sales the Nintendo Switch now stands 16m units away from becoming the highest selling console of all time. Still selling at a brisk pace its ultimate claim would seem assured.

However, there's one factor at play that could see it fall short of that accolade - it's successor is said to be looming on the nearby horizon and will act as an immediate and direct hoover to its customer base potentially seeing sales drastically fall once gamers clamour to get their hands on Nintendo's next console.

Will the Nintendo Switch become the highest selling console of all time?

[wakka]

I think it will do it. In all likelihood they will keep selling the Switch 1 as a lower cost alternative to the Switch 2, and I reckon for the first couple of years of the latter's existence they'll mostly have a shared library.

And they said Nintendo was dead after the WiiU!

[Neon Ignition]

I think that's why it seems likely. As much as Switch 2 looks likely to rock up I'm expecting it to nuzzle Xmas quite tightly as otherwise Nintendo would be sending Luigi's Mansion 2 HD, Paper Mario: Thousand Year Door, Princess Peach Showtime to die. Just releasing these alone and giving them even a few short months to get some initial sales under their belts would push Switch 2 to Xmas so that gives Switch at least two more quarters on its own. It sold 8m in the last quarter, the next two will be slower but even if it sold 4-5m each quarter it would be near 10m units closer to the target by the time Switch 2 launches. Then they're just looking at 6m more over Xmas and in 2025.

They really should have a new budget model out when Switch 2 launches too.

[wakka]

I don't think a new budget model would be such a good idea. It would require the assignment of marketing spend and space and risks distracting from the Switch 2 and confusing the Switch 2 messaging.

Since the 2 is assuredly going to be a very similar design with a shared library initially, they need to do everything they can to make it a clearly communicated and attractive upgrade - not risk diluting interest with a cute new budget option.

Even though the Switch OLED is their strongest seller right now, I think it's likely to get discontinued and the original Switch and Switch Lite will keep trucking as the budget options at their current price points for the near/medium term.

[Nu-Eclipse]

Even though the Switch OLED is their strongest seller right now, I think it's likely to get discontinued and the original Switch and Switch Lite will keep trucking as the budget options at their current price points for the near/medium term.

No chance.

The 2019 Redbox Switch will be the one that finally bites the dust, IMO. That's the machine in the current Switch family that is looking very outdated.

I think the SWOLED (with a price cut) will be the legacy original device. Maybe Nintendo either keep the Switch Lite around with a price cut or refresh it with incremental hardware improvements to bring it up to near-parity.

[Ouenben]

I can't see it outselling the DS and PS2 now, especially if the Switch 2 is out next year. I'd be amazed if they reached 150m lifetime sales, to be honest.

[Neon Ignition]

They must be able to get some sort of price reduction in at this point, especially as there would need to be a proper balance once Switch 2 releases to avoid making the successor look too highly priced or the original over expensive in the face of the newer machine

[Nu-Eclipse]

Nintendo have increased their normally conservative sales forecasts for Switch.

It would appear that they think they have a chance of taking the record.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/06/nintendo-hikes-sales-forecast-of-switch-console-to-15point5-million-units.html

[fishbowlhead]

No way Switch2 is going to be pushed out this Christmas with Switch still selling bonkers amounts like this. Switch2 Christmas 25 now.

[Neon Ignition]

It's a weird one. An Xmas launch makes a lot of sense on paper but if they have one reasonably big release for Switch still in the wings for the same window then the Switch's own launch would show that they would face zero issues with delaying and launching Switch 2 in March 2025 to allow that game breathing room to sell and to clear Switch stock during the busy period.

[fishbowlhead]

They would have to have had 2-3 years of games in pipelines already for a 24 release, which they haven’t, because they would be maximising those sales on the console that already has 140m units out, it’s not coming out any time soon.

[Nu-Eclipse]

It's a weird one. An Xmas launch makes a lot of sense on paper but if they have one reasonably big release for Switch still in the wings for the same window then the Switch's own launch would show that they would face zero issues with delaying and launching Switch 2 in March 2025 to allow that game breathing room to sell and to clear Switch stock during the busy period.

The next Nintendo Direct broadcast will surely go a long way to revealing what software plans - if any - are in the pipeline, I would've thought.