Current PS3, and 360 sales debate

[Matt]

In the Headlines/Afrika thread...

The fact is the console has been so unsuccessful, and mishandled internally that the money just hasn't been there to throw behind the machine, development in house wise, and instead, sony have pushed their Blu Ray brand, and tv range more.

I never understand the notion that a company can't push all their products at the same time. It's simple maths - the more products they have, the more money they have, the more people they have to push those projects.

Unsuccessful? I believe I'm correct in saying the PS3's sales figures are, at this time, at least equal to those of the PS2 at the same point in their lifetimes. I think they may even be higher? They're outselling the 360 everywhere except American and the UK as well. Most analysts agree the PS3 will continue outselling the 360 and ultimately outsell it considerably.

And the PS2 is outselling everything except the Wii, and Sony will be making a very nice profit on each of those sold.

They've got the HD film market, they'll be getting licensing from BR for the next 10 to 20 years. So even if the PS3 was nothing more than a BR player, which I know some people believe, then it's been a huge success. They'll make billions from BR alone.

BR disc sales are poor? Compared to what? Again, I think you'll find they are at least equal to DVD sales at the same point during their lifetimes. Success comes through time. While I think it unlikely BR will ever hit the heights of DVD sales, it is possible - when HD broadcasting becomes more standard, going back to watch inferior DVDs will boost BR sales. It's far too early to be negative about BR when all sales indicate it's likely to be a huge success.

Sony launched a machine with a lot of bleeding edge technology that went without any real technical problems. The PS3 returns are genuinely in the low single digits.

So here they are, 18 months later, getting behind some novel games like Afrika. Sony have always put a lot of talent in to development.

[TIKKAROMA]

I never understand the notion that a company can't push all their products at the same time. It's simple maths - the more products they have, the more money they have, the more people they have to push those projects.

Unfortunately though it's not about simple maths - it's about basic economics. <_<
More products = more money spent on R&D/Testing/Production/Distribution/Marketing which in most cases you'd recoup through sales; not in the case of the PS3 because they (still) lose money for every one they sell, in fact it was the Sony guy who came out saying their low sales were a good thing because they'd lost less money - In simple terms think of it like how razor blades work.

Unsuccessful? I believe I'm correct in saying the PS3's sales figures are, at this time, at least equal to those of the PS2 at the same point in their lifetimes. I think they may even be higher? They're outselling the 360 everywhere except American and the UK as well. Most analysts agree the PS3 will continue outselling the 360 and ultimately outsell it considerably.

See above.

And the PS2 is outselling everything except the Wii, and Sony will be making a very nice profit on each of those sold.

Nobody is talking about the ps2 and they have to let it go at somepoint it can only be a miserable tit for them to suckle for a short while more.

Sony launched a machine with a lot of bleeding edge technology that went without any real technical problems. The PS3 returns are genuinely in the low single digits.

Sony launched a machine a year after they promised to and the tech hadn't changed since the year before that when it was announced - that's 2-3 year old tech hardly "bleeding edge" by anyones standards - you need to lay off the crazy stuff my friend.

So here they are, 18 months later, getting behind some novel games like Afrika. Sony have always put a lot of talent in to development.

Afrika was announced at the same time as the PS3 hardware specs - they're hardly just "getting behind it" now - plus it's JP only hardly pushing a product massively is it ?

[elkatas]

Unsuccessful? I believe I'm correct in saying the PS3's sales figures are, at this time, at least equal to those of the PS2 at the same point in their lifetimes.

This chart is compiled from the sales data that Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony have given, so it is so precise as it can be. As you can see, PS3 is selling far slower than PS2. Furthermore, it certainly won't have similar kind of boom in sales, because PS2 was heavily supply constrained (and didn't have worldwide release either).

[Matt]

This chart is compiled from the sales data that Nintendo, Microsoft and Sony have given, so it is so precise as it can be. As you can see, PS3 is selling far slower than PS2. Furthermore, it certainly won't have similar kind of boom in sales, because PS2 was heavily supply constrained (and didn't have worldwide release either).

Thanks Elkatas. That chart certainly shows the PS3 was in touching distance of the PS2 for a long time, and did sell more shortly after launch. As you say, the PS2 then had a bump as supply increased, but the PS3 wasn't a worldwide release either. All in all, I think that graph shows the PS3 is doing very well, given it's high starting price. The later figures have it significantly higher than the 360 at the same point. Obviously nothing can catch the Wii

[elkatas]

All in all, I think that graph shows the PS3 is doing very well, given it's high starting price. The later figures have it significantly higher than the 360 at the same point. Obviously nothing can catch the Wii

My personal estimation is that both X360 and PS3 will have similar success to N64, PS3 maybe little higher. This would mean around 32 million userbase for both consoles (N64 did get insane surge during last year thanks to Pok?mon).

[Matt]

Unfortunately though it's not about simple maths - it's about basic economics. <_<
More products = more money spent on R&D/Testing/Production/Distribution/Marketing which in most cases you'd recoup through sales; not in the case of the PS3 because they (still) lose money for every one they sell, in fact it was the Sony guy who came out saying their low sales were a good thing because they'd lost less money - In simple terms think of it like how razor blades work.

Of course they lose money on the PS3. They always do for the first couple of years on console releases. Same with MS. The only people who make money from day 1 are Nintendo. It's been that way for a while.

Nobody is talking about the ps2 and they have to let it go at somepoint it can only be a miserable tit for them to suckle for a short while more.

I think Sony will keep that going for as long as it's selling. Right now it's outselling the 360 in every region I believe, and outselling the PS3, with seemingly no sign of abating. Maybe in a couple of years.

Sony launched a machine a year after they promised to and the tech hadn't changed since the year before that when it was announced - that's 2-3 year old tech hardly "bleeding edge" by anyones standards - you need to lay off the crazy stuff my friend.

Which is surely an indication that it is bleeding edge technology. They had trouble, I understand, with Cell fabrication and BR diodes. Neither were in any other consumer products in large numbers, they were pushing their capabilities and the technologies. Which is what "bleeding edge" mean. The only part of the PS3 I'd say isn't bleeding edge is the GPU (based as it was on a relatively old nVidia part) and the HDD. The rest of it was new. The fact it all works still for the majority of people shows a very high level of manufacturing and technological skill.

Afrika was announced at the same time as the PS3 hardware specs - they're hardly just "getting behind it" now - plus it's JP only hardly pushing a product massively is it ?

I never said they are only "now" getting behind it. I'm saying they are known to get behind games that are unknown commercially. It was announced a long time ago yes, but you know, games take more than a week to get together. I got the impression when it was first shown it was more a technology demo, and shaping something like that in to a playable game would take a lot of work, and I dare say a few iterations.

[Matt]

My personal estimation is that both X360 and PS3 will have similar success to N64, PS3 maybe little higher. This would mean around 32 million userbase for both consoles (N64 did get insane surge during last year thanks to Pok&#232;mon).

I don't agree with that. Some analysts put the PS3 as 110m+. While I think that's madness, sales are increasing. They've outsold the 360 in Europe in a significantly shorter time frame, and it's selling more than most on this forum predicted. Sony must be doing something right - or did something right, if you believe people are buying purely on brand name alone.

It's hard to put a figure on total console sales, but I'd be surprised if by the end of the day, the PS3 doesn't hit 80m.

A lot will depend on the next MS console. With the 360 sales slowing, if there's not a bump next year, Sony should have established a rather large lead. Will MS risk putting out a new console so soon, like they did this generation? That may backfire as they've built up a good userbase, some of whom won't be so keen to make a quick transition. If MS came out with a new kick arse console with the current tech, we'd be looking at true 1080 HD - they could do that this year. However, given their losses, I imagine they'd want to start turning a profit this generation before taking another hit on a new console. And surely they've learned some valuable lessons and will ensure the next XBox is actually reliable, so they won't be so quick to rush to launch.

It's still early days. BR will become more popular, and surely the PS3 is the best entry level machine, both in terms of price and specification? There are a lot of PS3 exclusive titles this year that will get them some good coverage, LBP may be massive (I really hope it is, though I have my doubts) and boost sales. MGS soon, that will be interesting, we may see a huge rise in machines, we may not.

[Brad]

Sony launched a machine a year after they promised to and the tech hadn't changed since the year before that when it was announced - that's 2-3 year old tech hardly "bleeding edge" by anyones standards - you need to lay off the crazy stuff my friend.

There is an argument that it was sensible to wait until that tech could be put inside a reasonably reliable box rather than get it out the door as quick as possible though.
Seriously I think Sony will feel they are on track. They've done this twice before with huge success both times and probably feel that there's no reason to believe they can't pull it off again.

EDIT:
In response to chain 2 guys at work recently bought PS3s to go with their HDTVs. Both are non-gamers and will probably use it mostly as a blu-ray player but they are bound to buy some games I'm sure.

[elkatas]

...probably feel that there's no reason to believe they can't pull it off again.

Not really. Sony has pretty much acknowledged that PS3 won't be PS2 kind of success, and Stinger has said they are now just aiming to get profitable instead of trying to fight for first place. This is pretty smart, because there is no reason to try push yourself number one if you can't profit from it. And who knows what will happen next generation. Loser can be winner, and previous winner can be loser.

[Matt]

And who knows what will happen next generation. Loser can be winner, and previous winner can be loser.

I just hope Sony and MS keep pushing the technology, rather than go the Nintendo Wii route. They're doing amazing business so it must be tempting to follow them, but I'm a graphics whore

[Brad]

Well, I don't think Wii can be stopped but yeah, I mean that Sony think PS3 will stull be hugely successful and have legs.

[Matt]

I think we've learned you can never underestimate the Sony and Playstation branding. While the gaming world was laughing at them, they kept going, and are now selling very nicely.

Some analysts predict the Wii sales will fall flat and the PS3 will beat them, long term. I don't see it, the Wii keeps on going and going - quite beyond me TBH, I don't see the appeal and don't enjoy playing on it. Nintendo took a gamble and it's paid of magnificiently. Same with the DS.

Will the PS3 outsell the Wii? No. Will it still be successful? Yes I think so.

[spagmasterswift]

In response to chain 2 guys at work recently bought PS3s to go with their HDTVs. Both are non-gamers and will probably use it mostly as a blu-ray player but they are bound to buy some games I'm sure.

Isn't that statement true of most gamers too tho...

[EvilBoris]

Indeed, are they going to purchase enough brand new games in order for Sony to recoup the loss they took on each of those machines?

[spagmasterswift]

Indeed, are they going to purchase enough brand new games in order for Sony to recoup the loss they took on each of those machines?

Not unless the quality of games on the PS3 improves soon...