New Consoles

[FreddyKrueger]

Just throwing this question out there but do you think any of the historical console manufacturers would ever try and re-enter the market?

I'm talking about companies such as NEC, SNK (or SNK playmore now I believe), Apple, Bandai, Sega etc etc - apologies if I have missed your favourites!

The market seems to have settled down into Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft but it wasn't always like that - Nintendo have been around for ages but Sony and Microsoft are still relatively new players to the market.

I am not sure if there is any money in it for them now and a few of these have certainly had their fingers burnt in the past - personally I love to see competition but sadly do not think it will happen. Only company I thought might try it again was Apple.

[dotoko]

No, I think even Nintendo will eventually be squeezed to just handhelds. Probably one capable of connecting to TVs that can use evolved Wii-motes for party gaming. Nintendo hit it lucky with the Wii and I don't think they'll be as lucky if they try compete with Sony/Microsoft again.

I also think the next Sony/Microsoft consoles will focus even more on being a media centre which is where I can see Apple joining in with a newer AppleTV box that can also act like OnLive and that will push PC gaming ahead which in-turn will make PS5 and Xbox4 little more than gaming dedicated PCs and that's when we'll see a "console" free-for-all.

[sj33]

There's a combination of factors at play these days which would make the market inaccessible now (compared with 15 years ago when most established companies could afford to release their own games console).

The most obvious one is the cost. Even the likes of Microsoft and Sony are having to bleed money to afford to stay in the console race. R&D is insanely expensive, coupled with marketing and having to compete with other businesses on financial terms. Nintendo have been the odd one out, but we're beginning to see how short term their position threatens to be. This console generation has seen 3 losers and no winners, depending on how you view it.

Another factor is objective. Sony and Microsoft have quite clear objective, and it isn't just gaming. It's about a presence in the living room, being the one in the position to deliver content to the consumer. It would have to be a business who is interested in investing in that playing field. This is why they are happy to bleed money, they are investing in a field that goes far beyond students and middle aged men playing Halo 4.

Apple seem like a likely candidate, if they want to push their own distribution services into the living room. They've dabbled with it already with AppleTV, but the iPhone has expanded awareness of their services massively. Google seem like one who would be interested in the cloud gaming angle, but they've expressed no interest.

The old 'players' in the market lack incentive, motivation and end objectives to tackle the hardware market, and the finances to support such a venture.

[EvilBoris]

I think it would be hard for anyone (apple included) them to enter a market that is already so tied into specific brands and manufacturers.

Apple got it just right with the Iphone thanks to the very slick software and digital download implementation that made it so unique. I couldn't imagine apple being intelligent enough to come up with enough new features and slick things that would make everyone go.
People are already referring to their mobile phone as an Iphone if that is what they have and people have been calling MP3 players Ipods as a blanket term for a long time. I couldn't see them getting a console out the door that would have that same brand recognition.

Just think how much money Microsoft have had to lost to get to where they are now, I can't imagine many companies having that kind of cash to play around with.

[FreddyKrueger]

Comments so far suggest what I thought - it's disappointing in a way as competition is good for the market but I don't disagree with what anyone has said thus far.

[dotoko]

Just think how much money Microsoft have had to lost to get to where they are now, I can't imagine many companies having that kind of cash to play around with.

I disagree, Microsoft made some mistakes and they never really made hardware like Apple do. Even Sony only hemorrhage cash because because they built a house based on the success of the PS1/PS2. I think Apple could do a console that is basically a gaming specific PC and make a profit. A lot of Mac/iPhone users love their products and would buy anything Apple. All they'd need is say EA on-board for Madden/FIFA and things like Battlefield/Dead Space/Mirror's Edge. That combined with their app store which is established and well-liked and I could see them collecting the people the Wii bought into the market who don't quite feel seduced by Playstation and XBox.

I don't think Apple will do it, but if they did I think it would work.

[NekoFever]

I wouldn't really call Sony new to the market at this point. It's been in it for nearly 16 years now and has produced four consoles.

In any case, I would seriously doubt that any of the old guard will be returning. With a few exceptions, consoles used to be cheap to develop and made with off-the-shelf parts, but now it has to be cutting-edge stuff, usually with a deal done with a big CPU/GPU manufacturer for some bespoke chip, and then to be competitive it almost always has to be sold at a loss for at least a couple of years. If you can get past that you need tens of millions for marketing, and then you have to hope that you can get a word in edgeways with three established, wealthy and experienced competitors.

Even if you try to get out of the hardware race and compete with something different, Nintendo owns that market and Sony and MS are ploughing millions into it. Even those two won't put a dent in the Wii, so it's really futile for anyone without any brand recognition to do it.

The best we could hope for is something that gains a sustainable cult following, but even then, where do the games come from when the big publishers are playing to an audience of millions on other platforms?

Apple is the only one that could conceivably do it, but even then I don't think we'll see any more commitment than what we already have with the iPhone.

[Paddy]

Well, whenever it happens, a new company will enter the market (maybe when one of the existing ones loses too much ground?) and chances are they will go through the same 'peer recognition' phase that SONY and Microsoft went through when they enterred the market.

This has given me an idea of what to do for one of my future articles. Anyone mind if I take this thread topic as the basis for it?

[abigsmurf]

Apple at the moment could realistically do it but really, I don't think they want to. I think they're happy with people buying lightweight apps rather than full games. The tablet isn't going to be gaming focused and I can't see them releasing a touch with d-pad controls.

However, if anything the console marketing has shown that any company, with enough of a push behind it, can enter the console market. IBM could easily make one, nVidia could decide they want Tegra 4 to be a console with their name on it. It's hard to know.

[FreddyKrueger]

I even thought at one point that Google would have the clout to be able to enter the gaming market....

[abigsmurf]

Google have the financial means to and it would be another market for them to muscle in on but I think it'd be a bad move. Sony had their own programmers and were working with Sega before the PS launch and had their own development studios, MS had worked very closely with Sega for the Dreamcast and had lots of experience with games coding through DirectX. Google have no gaming experience of any note and they've their hands full with Android.

Maybe once Android is established, they'll work on a console but only if they buy up a game studio or two.

[Nu-Eclipse]

No, I think even Nintendo will eventually be squeezed to just handhelds. Probably one capable of connecting to TVs that can use evolved Wii-motes for party gaming. Nintendo hit it lucky with the Wii and I don't think they'll be as lucky if they try compete with Sony/Microsoft again.

Disagree with part of that - I think that Nintendo are always going to have a say in the home console market simply because (if nothing else) they have the clout in terms of sheer IP that Sony & Microsoft simply don't have, which can be crucial in terms of selling hardware (ask Sega).

That said, I do believe that Nintendo won't be able to get away with simply repeating the business model used to develop the Wii. They saved £millions, if not £billions in R&D with the Wii technology - which, let's face it, is basically Gamecube hardware + extra RAM, maybe - that Sony & Microsoft had to spend on the PS3 & 360 respectively. The next generation of hardware could be a crucial watershed for Nintendo. Whether the likes of Reggie Fils-Aime & Satoru Iwata want to admit it or not, Nintendo are going to simply have to modernize and move with the times in terms of offering more than just gaming for their next major console, and that will mean bigger, better hardware that can offer more in terms of HD graphics and sound, more scope for all-round entertainment via music and movies and a much clearer vision for online gaming and community . Sony and Microsoft have shown that these factors aren't fads, they're very much a part of modern gaming today, and I fear that Nintendo could have real trouble if they fail to adapt. For all the success of the Wii in terms of the financial side of it, it's no coincidence that it stands out as perhaps the only Nintendo console in history that "the hardcore" simply don't want to play on.

[sj33]

That said, Nintendo have a history of using established technology, rather than cutting-edge. That doesn't necessarily mean the technology has to be a generation behind - the Snes and GameCube used existing hardware and weren't out of place in their contexts. The Wii is a bit of an exception in that it genuinely was a generation behind technically.

As you say, the power of Nintendo's IP is significant. I suspect Nintendo won't be attempting to push the bleeding edge of technology with the next generation, but opt for an established technology from IBM and ATi which is powerful enough to 'keep up' with the competition yet cost effective enough so they don't need to bleed money, whilst differenciating themselves though other means (what they failed to do with the GameCube).

[Neon Ignition]

For the 'next-gen' I expect Nintendo to put out something of PS3-esque power and some new design twist so that it's a clear step up from the Wii but by then will be cost effective and in line with market standards. I'm kinda expecting it not to feel so out of date power wise either as I'm half expecting Microsoft and Sony to limit how much more powerful their next systems are given the success Nintendo has had. Why pay all that hardware cost when it doesn't guarantee the success it once did? Despite the talk they'd both shaft the hardcore gamer if it meant the sales Nintendo has enjoyed and the whole motion control battle shows their interest

As for an old company coming into the market, I think only Sega would be suitable if it ever became big enough from a design view but I don't think they'd take the gamble again looking at how the market has changed. New companies? To me only Apple seems well placed enough but they have next to no visible interest in the market. Probably due to the high competition and high risk of financial loss. Some people will see the iPhone and iTouch as entry machines for handhelds but personally people spending £1 on what typically amount to little more than mobile phone games isn't a viable rival for the handheld market and Apple have shown little effort in trying to create a solid foundation for it to grow with a messy Store system where new games can go unnoticed and lack of internal push from a software standpoint.

I reckon we're stuck with the 'Big Three', physical and digital delivering systems and no major outbreak of Cloud based gaming for the next 5-10 years

[egparadigm]

There's absolutely no chance of Apple entering the console market. Their whole business model over the last 15 years has been about selling high-end products (in terms of price) that look nice. Does anyone really think that there's a high-end price point in the console market after what happened to Sony this gen?