Is the next generation coming too early?

[Tom Salter]

Talk is rife at the moment about the next gen consoles, with the Xbox2 having an IBM chip, the PS2's reputed "CELL" abilities, and the NGC2's online gubbins.

Thing is, will these new consoles rise above the current ones enough to warrant a purchase?

Designers are currently un-limited in what they can do with consoles. Never do they have to say "oooh, we can't do that, the system isn't powerful enough". So why upgrade for now?

PS2 can churn out 75million polys (heh, according to Sony's specs, probably closer to 10), while the highest end PC specs at the moment are churning out 3-400 million. I reckon, after the bull****, the newer consoles will be pushing ~100,000,000 poly's, if that. Question is, what can be done with these new machines that can't be done with the current ones?

I for one aren't that interested in the next generation, just yet.

[sam1981]

A new generation of machines will definitely technically be able to do things that the current crop can't do as is always the case, but I don't think that means that we need a new generation just yet, the current machines just seem to be getting into their stride and still impress me.

I can remember feeling as if the MD and SNES we're starting to look ragged in the leadup to the PS/Saturn and (later) N64, but I don't get the same feeling at the moment with the GC, Xbox, PS2...

I reckon 2006 might be a good time to introduce some new machines.

[Tokyo Trash Baby]

It's not too early for Sony, Its way behind in hardware terms and the oldest amongst current gen. As for XBOX and GAMECUBE which are still new to the market when compared to Sony, it just appears they wasted so much in development and want to release a new console all ready. all it will do is put off its current console earners. well thats what i think anyway........

[Tokyo Trash Baby]

OOPS change "earners" to "players"......

[MonkeyWrench]

Designers are currently un-limited in what they can do with consoles. Never do they have to say "oooh, we can't do that, the system isn't powerful enough". So why upgrade for now?

They always have to say that, it's the biggest barrier for any development team.

As for the topic. Nope I don't think it's too soon, the 2005/6 window has given us plenty of time with the current generation. We don't want to head down the same road as the Neo-Geo do we?

[Ady]

In a word: Yes.

I'm so sick of hearing SPECulation (see what I did there?) on what the 'next gen' will achieve, particularly when the current gen still has so much to offer.

Nowadays, it's all about hyping your brand and pimping your technology. The average consumer doesn't even understand much of the tech speak, but its used as a cunning, cynical ploy to pique their interest and it works because people en masse are impressionable and stupid.

I find myself being overwhelmed by all the great games coming out across all three platforms so hyping the next gen is really just taking the piss.

Seeing technology pushed to its limits before its expired is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

[Tom Salter]

Like what's been said, I'm pretty certain that there's far more to be seen from the current crop of consoles, and they are far from expiring.

Looking at the timeframe though, we've had these consoles already for a good 4 years (1999 for the PS2?) and by the time that the PS3 comes out, we'll have had them for about 6 years. That's roughly the right amount of time for a generation to last, but this generation is different.

Games are looking far superior all the time, and by comparing two PS2 games from now, and the PS2's release, then it's plain to see that there's a huge gap, and things are increasing all the time.

A new generation this early will only provoke developers to be lazier, since they'll have far too much clocks to create clever algorithms for faster rendering, and I think that's what many developers were guilty of at the start of this generation, and I think there's plenty of power to be unleashed from the current crop of consoles.

I mean, we're pretty close to photo-realism as it is, I'd rather wait another 4/5 years until we CAN get pure phtorealism.

[sam1981]

I think we're much further than 5 years from photorealism. There might be some games that can use certain techniques to be able to get a photorealism effect, but I'm sure there will still be graphical leaps for the next 20 years.

Whether designers will be able to spend enough time creating such detailed gameworlds is another thing... I suppose that's where middleware comes in, or some kind of library / bank of object models...

[MonkeyWrench]

Looking at the timeframe though, we've had these consoles already for a good 4 years (1999 for the PS2?) and by the time that the PS3 comes out, we'll have had them for about 6 years. That's roughly the right amount of time for a generation to last, but this generation is different.

Games are looking far superior all the time, and by comparing two PS2 games from now, and the PS2's release, then it's plain to see that there's a huge gap, and things are increasing all the time.

A new generation this early will only provoke developers to be lazier, since they'll have far too much clocks to create clever algorithms for faster rendering, and I think that's what many developers were guilty of at the start of this generation, and I think there's plenty of power to be unleashed from the current crop of consoles.

I mean, we're pretty close to photo-realism as it is, I'd rather wait another 4/5 years until we CAN get pure phtorealism.

How do you know developer won't reach these machines limits by 2006? I mean it's 2 years away, and you're talking like these systems are coming out next year. That's plenty of time to see some noticable improvements. Also I think by 2006 developers (and gamers) will be hankering after some new kit delve into.

I wouldn't say we're anywhere near photo-realism yet, as sam1981 said, that's still a fair few years away yet. And why does it have to be all about graphics? These new systems will allow a lot more than just improve the visuals. I think AI is going to be one of the main areas developers will push in the future, and all those extra CPU ticks will help enormously.

Also how can "they'll have far too much clocks to create clever algorithms for faster rendering" be construed as lazy? Surely that would take some fair amount of work? Especially on a brand new system

[Madbury]

I wouldn't say we're anywhere near photo-realism yet, as sam1981 said, that's still a fair few years away yet. And why does it have to be all about graphics? These new systems will allow a lot more than just improve the visuals. I think AI is going to be one of the main areas developers will push in the future, and all those extra CPU ticks will help enormously.

God I hope you're right, but something in the pit of my stomach tells me that the obsession with graphics will continue until we hit that photo-realism level (maybe 5, maybe 10 years from now who knows). Hopefully once that has been achieved, actual gameplay will come back into vogue.

[tokyochojin]

i guess i missed this generation!! i'm still on Dreamcast!!! ah well i suppose techinically i didn't!!

[Ikaruga]

We don't want to head down the same road as the Neo-Geo do we?

Why? Becuase SNK cared more about games than they did Gr4FiX11110011??

**** the next generation. Publishers should be concentrating on making better games, not better systems. This generation needs at least another 10 AAA games on each system to warrant me buying into the next phase.

And like Tokyochojin, i'm still with the DC, i'll be at it's side till it's very last breath.

[tankplanker]

And its harder to maxamise a system when you are using something like renderware or the system is more complex - PS2

I think there was somebody in Edge that said that the benefit of assembler code against C was so little (5 to 10%) and the size of code, power of the machines so great, that the benefit isn't worth the (massive) extra effort.

Obviously I don't develop console games, anybody who does like to comment?

[stiff_one]

I totally agree, I think the next gen hype happens far too quickly.

To be fair, PS1 games still sell in Game and I can see PS2 games sticking around for years to come, which is a good thing.

Its annoying the whole buying new consoles business, especially for developers I imagine.

I have loads to say on the subject, I hope to have time to elaborate soon

I hope any next gen systems have ease of development as a key feature.

[Ryan]

I can remember feeling as if the MD and SNES we're starting to look ragged in the leadup to the PS/Saturn and (later) N64, but I don't get the same feeling at the moment with the GC, Xbox, PS2...

I've got those feelings about the PS2 :-/