Virtual Reality

[MartyG]

Here's an interesting bit of VR history ...

[Adam Stone]

OH MY GOD!!!!

Pistol Whip is so good!

[Asura]

Meta have confirmed their Connect event is on September 27th.

This will likely be the launch date of the Quest 3, or, if not, they will announce a launch date in mid-October (to match the Quest 2).

[Lebowski]

OH MY GOD!!!!

Pistol Whip is so good!

BLACK MAGIC!!!!

It's such a stylish game, it feels like an old school light gun shooter and when you get the rhythm right it all just clicks

[Neon Ignition]

https://mixed-news.com/en/meta-quest-pro-canceled/

Speculation that Meta is a shelve Quest Pro and cancel the development of Quest Pro 2

[Asura]

https://mixed-news.com/en/meta-quest-pro-canceled/
Speculation that Meta is a shelve Quest Pro and cancel the development of Quest Pro 2

Makes perfect sense.

The Quest Pro was ultimately a misstep for Meta, without a really clear idea of who it was for, or at least, not appealing to the group they marketed it at.

The Quest 3 is going to have a very similar optical stack, and this is one of the few universally praised features of the Quest Pro (seriously, everyone who puts it on raves about who clear and crisp the visuals are), and it even does 3D colour pass-through - which was the QPro's killer app - better than the Pro does, because it has actual stereoscopic colour cameras and an IR depth sensor (which the QPro was going to have, but they removed it from the spec close to the end of development for unclear reasons).

Similarly, they don't want people be speculating about a QPro 2 over the next few months, because the Pro still has two things that the Q3 lacks - face tracking and eye tracking. There are a lot of people out there who are saying what they want is a QPro 2 that fixes its problems, but Meta obviously wants to sell the Q3, so best not to confuse the issue.

Then, of course, the QPro, being at the 1500$ pricepoint, is verging on the higher end of the market, and Apple's clearly going to try and sew that up.

[Neon Ignition]

Given how much the VR market is straining existing companies are probably going to begin to feel like Apple can have the high end market if they want it as you're essentially solely paying for the image of a half eaten apple on the unit. The only real consumer success seen has been in areas where moments of mass market appeal have been seen and it's already hard to see Quest 3 experiencing the same success that Quest 2 had, success that already required a company as big as Meta to eat the losses and increase the RRP. It still feels like an awkward 'too soon after a death' thing to say but the 'moment' for VR has clearly passed and I imagine we're approaching a battle for last man standing and Meta seems best placed to accomplish that.

[Asura]

Given how much the VR market is straining existing companies are probably going to begin to feel like Apple can have the high end market if they want it as you're essentially solely paying for the image of a half eaten apple on the unit. The only real consumer success seen has been in areas where moments of mass market appeal have been seen and it's already hard to see Quest 3 experiencing the same success that Quest 2 had, success that already required a company as big as Meta to eat the losses and increase the RRP. It still feels like an awkward 'too soon after a death' thing to say but the 'moment' for VR has clearly passed and I imagine we're approaching a battle for last man standing and Meta seems best placed to accomplish that.

I actually think the Quest 3 is going to exceed expectations.

It's smaller, lighter and most importantly, not blurry.

Literally everyone I've ever had try my Quest 2; many of them have enjoyed the experience. But what's the first thing they've all said?

"It's blurry."

It's true that with the Quest (and other fresnel VR headsets) that you can get them to fit in such a way as to be in the "sweet spot", but it's totally fair to say that the blurriness is something VR-enthusiasts kinda got-on-board-with during the early days of the PSVR, Rift and so-on, which negatively impacts the experience.

I think the Q3 being smaller, lighter and offering a clearer image is a bigger deal than people realise, because it gets rid of that bit of initial friction. I see it as similar to how in early tablets, you needed to use a stylus, which was never going to take off, but using the iPad with your hands was transformative.

[Neon Ignition]

I can imagine it will do well, Meta has built solid media and store presence for the brand and I can see a reasonable proportion of existing fans wanting the upgraded experience to help perfect what Quest 2 already offers them.

It's why I'm holding out with an eye on it. I'm hoping it's reasonably priced and suitably good not because I see it as potentially being my next VR headset purchase but because I'm hoping it's my final VR headset purchase.

I don't feel Quest 3 will have the same burst of popularity Quest 2 had because I feel novelty aside the Quest 2 was propelled quite a bit by the circumstances it found itself in during the pandemic. As the ultimate form of escapism, that newness of experience and price made it a compelling proposition. What I'm expecting is that rather than a foundation fanbase having been created by that time what the Quest 3 will launch into its its own 'Wii' moment. Following on from a lightning in a bottle success that people loved but most will have already moved on from.

The vaccuum surrounding PSVR2 has really pushed me down that rabbit hole too, I know fans still like to say it's early but it's very clear Sony doesn't give a **** about it and that void I feel is reflective of how VR already struggled even during the 'buzz' years, a period that is behind it. Likewise, whilst new tech is being added to higher, newer headsets the software to showcase it doesn't exist. Quest 3 will launch relying on existing, heavily played out VR titles and little of major draw appeal on the way. I think it will do well but I'll be impressed if it manages much past half the numbers Quest 2 will have recorded.

Praying they nail it though, there's a risk a race to the bottom begins soon with companies trying to make cheap entry point headsets that compromise quality. If Quest 3 can balance cost, build and experience then it might just become the effective definitive headset.

[wakka]

I see it as potentially being my next VR headset purchase but because I'm hoping it's my final VR headset purchase.

So when the Quest 27 is out and it's the size and weight of a peanut you'll be like, nah, I'm good, I got my Quest 3 already?

I know you're very bearish on VR but even if there is a retrenchment, headmounted screen technology is only going to improve. Especially if we are looking at the suggested timeline of the rest of your natural life (which I would hope would be a number of decades!).

[Neon Ignition]

I see it more as VR is an experience that is so unique that I don't want to wave goodbye to it by not having a headset at all and having one in conjunction with a PC is the way to go. But, I don't expect there to be a long chain of worthwhile headset improvements on the road ahead, or at least ones that warrant picking up, because you have a sizeable cost outlay each time and the pool of new software is drying up - particularly software that utlises the advancements.

Like how motion tracking has improved over the past years but I'm not playing Wii style games anymore. It was a phase and the industry moved on from it, it's still there in things like the Switch's joycons but most could be forgiven for forgetting the tech was even present.

I see gaming more now as being akin to movies or music when people talk about its future. There has been decades of talk about what the future would bring for those medias and whilst refinements in quality have taken place the bulk of advancement has come via delivery with the switch from home media to home media to digital and gaming seems to be headed in the same way. Without a major surge in VR demand the software investment is going to become solely the domain of indies which we're on the brink of already. If a VR headset released that was wireless, had a good display and tracking and worked with PC (what I'm hoping Quest 3 is) I don't see any reason why a later iteration would offer a compelling reason to warrant paying out again unless I still wanted a VR experience and the basics of the tech such as connectivity reached a point of having compatibility issues. Resolution wouldn't be enough of a sales pitch once it's good enough.

I feel we're reaching the point where software is the kryponite at play. Fancier ways of playing VR's poster child games that are creeping into older and older years isn't going to sustain sales.

Valve Reveals Top Selling VR Games on Steam in 2022 (roadtovr.com)
This highlights the issue with software sales resting largely on years old titles and little new breaking ground

[Asura]

Valve Reveals Top Selling VR Games on Steam in 2022 (roadtovr.com)
This highlights the issue with software sales resting largely on years old titles and little new breaking ground

To be fair, though, VR sales on Steam, specifically, are somewhat deceptive - because the number of people on Quest absolutely dwarfs Steam VR. They've sold more Quests than current-gen Xboxes. Every developer is saying, right now, that unless you're "playing the longest of long games", if you're in VR, you have to be on Quest (and Pico4, and other places too) - and generally stand-alone games don't sell so well on PCVR.

[MartyG]

It also doesn't appear to include titles that support VR but are not specifically VR games, such as Phantasmagoria, F1 2022, Demeo, XPlane 12, DCS (which is free to play) etc. There is a heavy influence of Sim gaming in PCVR.

VR is dying in the exact same way that console gaming is dying (it isn't).

From the same site: https://www.roadtovr.com/quest-2-rev...apps-gdc-2023/

If you go look, there are articles in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and this year claiming VR is dead or dying. The corpse has apparently been rotting for a long time - the articles probably get a lot of clicks.

[Neon Ignition]

That's vague data though I'd be wager that the list of titles that have made the successful revenues are the usual shortlist of 3-6yr old titles. There's circa 20m Quest 2's out in the wild at this point but that's not a level of success reflected by its rivals. Don't get me wrong, it's a great product and I'm happy to have VR continue. But if Quest 3 nails enough of the experience I would be highly unlikely to shell out again for a new headset if the primary experiences for Quest 4, 5 etc still revolve around games with the words Beat Sabre, Alyx, Skyrim, Pistol Whip etc and don't fully utilise core tech advancements. Otherwise it's endless 'New 3DSs' style expenditure without the notable new releases alongside it.


Effectively it's an extension of the same issue as PSVR2. PSVR1 was a great experience in need of refinement that PSVR2 provides but without quality new experiences shelling out £500+ on the headset is a non-starter (worse in PSVR's case because some of the best titles don't work with it). If Quest 3 has great tracking and a quality resolution and software pretty much never requires more than that, why continue to shell out such high costs on headsets?

[MartyG]

For the same reason people buy new graphics cards and CPUs every cycle - you can quite easily say the same thing for consoles too.

Why does anyone need a PS6?