Xbox Series S/X: Thread 03

[Cassius_Smoke]

For me, it's the lack of games. The last few bone years MS released next to nothing and everyone thought it was because they were focused on next gen... Nope, still nothing. What were they doing for all that time?
Sony haven't exactly come out the gates at full steam, but theyve ridden the PS4 exclusives and success for a little bit.
MS needed a launch that had a couple of real hits. They missed a trick, because the could have given Sony a kick in the balls.

[Lebowski]

For me, it's the lack of games. The last few bone years MS released next to nothing and everyone thought it was because they were focused on next gen... Nope, still nothing. What were they doing for all that time?
Sony haven't exactly come out the gates at full steam, but theyve ridden the PS4 exclusives and success for a little bit.
MS needed a launch that had a couple of real hits. They missed a trick, because the could have given Sony a kick in the balls.

They did have big first party Gamepass exclusives, they just launched in a bad state or where mediocre, Gears, Halo, Sea of Theives, Crackdown, State of decay 2 ect it was only really Forza horizon that is still doing well critically for them.

[nonny]

For me, it's the lack of games. The last few bone years MS released next to nothing and everyone thought it was because they were focused on next gen... Nope, still nothing. What were they doing for all that time?
Sony haven't exactly come out the gates at full steam, but theyve ridden the PS4 exclusives and success for a little bit.
MS needed a launch that had a couple of real hits. They missed a trick, because the could have given Sony a kick in the balls.

I think that's a fair comment. We know Halo was supposed to be the big launch title but it has been very slow response by MS even outside of that delay.

I think there has definitely been some turbulence behind the scenes and obviously a lot of changes recently with the Bethesda acquisition. That doesn't account for the run into launch but it's also fair that a lot of their projects are very lengthy.

I would imagine 2022 and beyond it's going to ramp up significantly but they are going to be playing catch up to Sony throughout this generation.

[nonny]

They did have big first party Gamepass exclusives, they just launched in a bad state or where mediocre, Gears, Halo, Sea of Theives, Crackdown, State of decay 2 ect it was only really Forza horizon that is still doing well critically for them.

I wouldn't class Halo, Gears or Sea of Thieves as bad/mediocre.

The Halo 5 campaign was forgettable but multiplayer was good. Gears 4 and 5 have been great in my book and Sea of Theives was bare bones at launch but progressed with great content very quickly.

State of Decay 2 was a mess at launch and well Crackdown 3 was a game I think they shouldn't have bothered with.

[wakka]

I'm with Lebowski on the exclusives.

I got my Bone mid-gen and played quite a few of the exclusive efforts, and with the exception of Forza Horizon 4 they were mostly bobbins. There wasn't anything remotely close to the standard of Uncharted 4 or Spider-Man. Stuff like Gears and Crackdown felt resolutely stuck in the 360 gen.

I'd love to get excited about Microsoft games again though, and I'm optimistic it could happen this gen. Bring on Starfield. I'm loving the look of Avowed, too!

[Lebowski]

I wouldn't class Halo, Gears or Sea of Thieves as bad/mediocre.

The Halo 5 campaign was forgettable but multiplayer was good. Gears 4 and 5 have been great in my book and Sea of Theives was bare bones at launch but progressed with great content very quickly.

State of Decay 2 was a mess at launch and well Crackdown 3 was a game I think they shouldn't have bothered with.

Sea of thieves had no content at launch and it took them years to get it into an acceptable state, Halo 5s reviews criticized its dull campaign and the poor state its multiplayer launched in, halo collection was the same bad online and questionable choices with its design and quality of its remaster. gears is gears a game thats not really shinned brightly since the 360 days its competent at least.

[Neon Ignition]

When it comes to Sony's position on this I think this is where some key bits came up on Era yesterday that feed into why Sony just kind of barely acknowledges Game Pass as even existing.

Sony's operating on a level where yesterday they announced that they've almost sold as many copies of God of War as MS has had people sign up for Game Pass. The incentive to provide themselves a way to kick the legs out from their tentpoles sales figures isn't there the same as it was for MS who implemented GamePass at a time when monetising the XBO userbase was a real concern.

Likewise, PlayStation Plus is a service that gives you a small handful of free games per month but more critically it's essential to be subscribed if you want to play online. The incentive to be subscribed to PS+ or XBL is much stronger than it is to sign up for GamePass and yet after all these years over 70% of the userbase still doesn't have a sub to it. The reason being that they're a significant amount of people who just play Fortnite or much about with FIFA, GTA etc. I suspect this is why PSNow has never been rolled in to PS+, Sony would likely lose far more money than it would gain by making the move. I expect this is why XBL still exists outside of GamePass.

It's part of the conundrum that goes with GamePass. Over the last few months it's considered that it's had quality games released for it but they're incredibly niche titles often like Flight Sim or Psychonauts 2. They're great to have but won't be concurrent sub drivers. They'll largely be like Sea of Thieves, great games that people who are already subbed for other reasons stumble across because they can download it for free rather than people will sign up in their millions specifically for. Titles like Forza Horizon 5 will be the key attractors but in doing so MS might have 15 million people download it in the first year but the impact on game sales will be large for a game that would have otherwise had no issue selling at full price and only a percentage of those who play it will have paid much if anything at all or will retain their subs on a rolling basis.

It's kind of like working the sub numbers out but viewing it in reverse instead of forward. The growth rate has been huge but it came from a starting point of zero. Growing at 80%+ from 10m to 18m for example does not mean it's destined to have 50, 80, 120m subscribers. If the other subs ratios translate then Game Pass would begin to see its growth rate sharply decline somewhere between 20-25m subscribers unless MS rapidly and widely expands its availability beyond Xbox consoles or massively drives up the number of XB consoles in the market.

We know this is their intention, whether they sell more XB's or not. The question is whether you believe that millions upon millions of people are waiting to have GamePass available directly via their phones, TV's, PC's etc and can't be bothered to buy and Xbox.

I don't for one second believe Sony has been ignorant of GamePass, I'm sure they've spent a lot of time researching it and its viability and the reasons why Microsoft has been investing so much money into it. But like MS deciding not to support VR, I think they fully don't believe GamePass is a viable approach so have just steered clear.

It's where I end up coming from. I think it's why Onlive failed, Stadia has stalled, Nintendo puts its IP on mobiles but not the actual games etc. I don't believe this massive untapped market of waiting subscribers exists.

It's all a million miles away from the other side of the coin. There's no doubt of the value of Game Pass, it's still hard to believe it even exists. From a consumer angle it's unrivalled in its value and I understand the desire to effectively be able to get all Nintendo, Sony or whoevers major titles for free also. It's also blatantly clear that its value goes beyond that too, it saved Xbox. Without the prospect of GamePass would MS have still stuck it out with the Xbox Division? It's allowed them to monetise the division in a way that they always struggled to previously so the decision to attempt it makes sense. So, it's not a criticism of Game Pass itself, just that I don't expect to ever see imitators appear and I feel it's somewhat obvious how it's going to hit a glass ceiling this gen.

[Cassius_Smoke]

Someone like MS has the money to instead of buy Bethesda, could have bought the rights to something like Beneath a steal sky and got Rare to make a kick ass 3rd person narrative driven action adventure to launch the console with.

[Neon Ignition]

Yep, Bethesda's a solid buy because it can continue as something profitable under its own wind whilst benefiting Xbox. Rare has been utterly squandered though, almost deskilled.

[nonny]

God of War hitting PC is a bad example surely... I mean none of current pre-orders for it would be at all surprising given it's easily the biggest game from the Sony portfolio last generation and its £39.99 on Steam. Really the sell through should be expected...

I don't think that just automatically means Sony are on another level and operating in some elite space where they can continue to rely on their triple AAA model as a convention. If anything it shows that they may need to diversify and bring big titles to PC earlier than 4 years delay to maximise profit margins on these games.

Whether they need or want to compete with game pass with a similar subscription model, or just with their current model and a wider support for PC... Well I'll leave that for Jim. He's got more real numbers than me.

I think for me all companies in the gaming market are doing amazingly this generation so it can only be good news long term.

[Neon Ignition]

Thing for Sony and God of War though, is its sales via Steam are just sprinkles. Even if it only sold another 1m via PC that massive success has all been driven by PS4/PS5 sales. It's something only Nintendo and Rockstar tend to enjoy, MS isn't in the same league and the rate of sales in both hardware and software show that the existing markets lean to those experiences hugely, even to the point that even companies like EA are beginning to show signs of moving their output to high budget single player content too.

For Sony, keeping games like God of War off PC for 4 years will be seen as providing a reason for PC owners to want to pick up a PS5. If they don't they'll eventually get it but having played it and enjoyed it then face another multi-year wait or pick up a PS5. It's an attempt to loop consumers back around to their primary eco-system whilst also monetising older titles. That falls away if their games are day and date on PC as it removes the loop that could tempt someone to buy their console.

MS will be entertaining day and date PC releases less for the sales and more because Game Pass PC requires the content.

[Cassius_Smoke]

Plus Sony can say to PC owners
'Oh you liked GoW, well we have a sequel on the ps5, come and get it!'

Xbox can't do that.
'Oh you liked Halo, well, we have another one on Xbox... Which you can already play on PC...'

[nonny]

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2021/10/...ink_lrn_10.2.2.

pricey for the 2tb model but that's great as it means the 1tb model should start to drop fairly rapidly.

[Lebowski]

https://news.xbox.com/en-us/2021/10/...ink_lrn_10.2.2.

pricey for the 2tb model but that's great as it means the 1tb model should start to drop fairly rapidly.

looking on amazon.com a 2tb M.2 nvme gen 4 is between $240-300 not the $400 Microsoft are asking for these, that money will get you a considerably faster drive too. What you will probably find here is the extra money their charging for these drives is more than likely a licening fee segate have to pay to Microsoft. I found it interesting that For these drives to work Microsoft has to update the OS to recognize them. So potentially we could see other manufactures enter this space if Microsoft expands its licensing but who knows seagate could have exclusivity.

[Cassius_Smoke]

This is the problem with proprietary vs Off the shelf.
I don't know if anyone remembers the great memory card glut of the ps2 were they couldn't manufacture them fast enough and the price was getting a lot of negative feedback.
As nice as these MS cards are, there is a lesson there to remember.