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**QualityChimp** · 06-12-2022, 12:41

Nice! The previous thread was a lot of fun!

**Neon Ignition** · 07-12-2022, 07:52

It's an awkward to consider how they might do as audiences have been so extreme in either throwing money at films or outright rejecting them, there's very little middle ground with nostalgic related stuff being the only real guaranteed cash spinner

**Neon Ignition** · 09-12-2022, 11:03

First stab at these:

Film 01 - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $684m
This would make for a good performance for an Ant-Man film, the best to date, but still lower than they typically draw. I think this one looks more like the kind of thing MCU fans want but I just don't think the character has the pull for higher figures.

Film 02 - Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $375m
The film looks good and it would nice to see it do well but given the earnings of the original and Black Adam, plus timing of release, I don't see it performing differently than those

Film 03 - Super Mario Bros. - $840m
It'll do gangbusters

Film 04 - The Little Mermaid - $900m
Disney's remakes of their renaissance era films have all leapt past $1bn despite the awful quality of them. But, this is post pandemic and whilst it will undoubtedly do well it's launching in a very crowded window too so I'm mindful it won't pass that threshold

Film 05 - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $630m
I think TF's $1bn Club days are behind it. I feel TF7 will improve on Bumblebee's earnings but not improve things too much overall

Film 06 - The Flash - $785m
If it's as good as they claim it is then I think it will do well for a DCU film but it doesn't have the best foundation and it's launching directly against too much competition

Film 07 - Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $860m
I think this will be the most successful of the Indy installments

Film 08 - Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One - $900m
Another rise for the franchise and bouyed by the post-Top Gun high too

Film 09 - Oppenheimer - $435m
I don't think this will make the impact they think it will

Film 10 - Blue Beetle - $330m
A figure that is probably pretty solid considering the streaming origins this began with

Film 11 - The Expendables 4 - $180m
I don't see this growing the audience especially since the number of recognisable names is falling

Film 12 - Dune: Part Two - $360m
I expect strong reviews but less foot traffic due to a number who won't return after Part One

Film 13 - The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $310m
Very much a film hardly anyone asked for, brand name might carry it this far

Film 14 - Ghostbusters IV - $185m
Good chance it gets delayed but launching at Xmas, within 5 days of Aquaman and being a franchise provenly unable to grow beyond this level of earnings. I think the good Afterlife reputation will see it right but there'll be a small drop off by the time it's done

Film 15 - Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $940m
By the time it releases I think the competition isn't the type of stuff to take away attention and enough interest will return from the success of the original unless more happens on the Heard debacle to distract from the films PR

**QualityChimp** · 09-12-2022, 11:40

It's genuinely interesting to try and work out how these things will do.

Although being short on the last few films, at least the cinema experience is doing better than I expected.

It's so tough to predict, though.
I think Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning: Part One will be a big hit.
Cruise is still clearly a bankable star, based on Top Gun: Maverick, but I think more people will have seen a M:I film than the original TG, so there'll be more people wanting to see it.

However, TG came out as we were emerging from Covid and everyone wanted something to see after a dry patch where a lot of productions were on ice, but Cruise was really stringent with Covid restrictions and pushed on to make them happen.

Now that more films are coming out, will it have that box office magic that TG captured like lightning in a bottle?

**Neon Ignition** · 09-12-2022, 14:22

Yep, I've also been mindful that Top Gun enjoyed an unusually long run this year which films won't get moving forward as schedules pack out again

**Neon Ignition** · 12-12-2022, 07:39

Entries for the 2023 competition will be allowed until 31 January 2023

**beecee** · 12-12-2022, 15:27

Film 01 - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
February 2023
$750m
Film 02 - Shazam: Fury of the Gods
March 2023
$690m
Film 03 - Super Mario Bros.
March 2023
$550m
Film 04 - The Little Mermaid
May 2023
$450m
Film 05 - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
June 2023
$675
Film 06 - The Flash
June 2023
$650m
Film 07 - Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
June 2023
$795m
Film 08 - Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
July 2023
$1000m
Film 09 - Oppenheimer
July 2023
never heard of it $600m
Film 10 - Blue Beetle
August 2023
never heard of it $400m
Film 11 - The Expendables 4
September 2023
$325m
Film 12 - Dune: Part Two
October 2023
$975m
Film 13 - The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
November 2023
$400m
Film 14 - Ghostbusters IV
December 2023
know nothing of this $550m
Film 15 - Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
December 2023
$675m

**QualityChimp** · 13-12-2022, 15:18

Originally posted by Neon Ignition View Post

Entries for the 2023 competition will be allowed until 31 January 2023

Can I do what I did last time and guess closer to release, or are you getting stricter this time?

**Neon Ignition** · 14-12-2022, 07:48

Definitely stricter

I'm ahead of the line up this time so can run it properly

**Neon Ignition** · 03-01-2023, 07:33

Nearly a month has passed now since entries opened and the 2022 contest is now officially closed. 28 days remain to cast your guesses for the 2023 thread

**QualityChimp** · 03-01-2023, 08:34

Film 01 - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
$910m
February 2023
I reckon this will do great business. There's a lot of momentum in Marvel movies, still and the combination of this being one of the few remaining old Avengers, a likeable lead and an important piece in this wave's story (Kang is in it) means that it'll do really well.
It's also the first Marvel film of the year and everyone will have finally been paid after Christmas, so finally have some money for the cinema again!

Film 02 - Shazam: Fury of the Gods
$650m
March 2023
DC are in a tizz at the minute and Shazam was one of the few recent DC films that was any good any universally liked. I reckon it'll do just shy of twice the original.

Film 03 - Super Mario Bros.
$1.4bn
March 2023
Sonic 2 got around $400m, but I reckon a combo of the OG Mario, Chris Pratt, a universally known character, international appeal, a wide age range of viewers and repeat visits means this'll be this year's first billion.

Film 04 - The Little Mermaid
$1.5bn
May 2023
Lion King and Beauty ATB both broke the billion mark.
Don't know it there are enough racists to hamper the results, but I reckon this is a pretty popular film, still and it'll do good business.

Film 05 - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
$803m
June 2023
Despite robots turning into animals is teh lamez, they keep flouting those pics of the alt. modes that look pretty G1-ish. Bumblebee did about half a bill. That was pretty popular, so I reckon this'll be one of the higher grossing films of the series. I think the change from Michael Bay will bring some viewers back.

Film 06 - The Flash
$620m
June 2023
Hmmm, neither The Batman or Justice League broke the billion mark and Black Adam was only about $300m, but I reckon the popularity of the character and desire to see DC improve will get a decent turnout.

Film 07 - Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
$1.25bn
June 2023
Struggling with this. There's never been an Indy that's broken the billion, but there's a lot of heat around this one. Everyone's excited, Mutt isn't in it and it feels like there's going to be some closure.
I reckon this'll break the bill as generations of Indy fans come out to see him battle Nazis, destiny and aching joints.

Film 08 - Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
$1.1bn
July 2023
So, this is a tricky one. I think a combination of Maverick making Cruise's appeal skyrocket again and the consistently improving M:I films means this'll bring in a tidy sum.
Maybe it's just because I'm excited for it!

Film 09 - Oppenheimer
$650m
July 2023
Oh man. Tenet struggled with fighting Lockdown, but I think that had more appeal than this.
It's this weird mix where Nolan wants to talk about the father of the atomic bomb, who was incredibly torn at how his invention was weaponised, but also show a MASSIVE explosion.
Not sure the general public will bite.

Film 10 - Blue Beetle
$283m
August 2023
Another "Who?!" character for a lot of people, but a big favourite for those that like the character.
Will make less than Black Adam, though.

Film 11 - The Expendables 4
$202m
September 2023
Man, these films are stooopid, but they deffo have an audience.
Last film didn't take as much as 2 and I reckon this will have a further decline, but only a bit.

Film 12 - Dune: Part Two
$568m
October 2023
Tricky one. I reckon this will do well as loads of people have had chance to see Pt.1 by the time this comes out and I think it's won over a lot more people who were either ambivalent to the series or book fans that thought it would sully the series, but didn't.
I think this'll bag over another 100 mill on top of the first film.

Film 13 - The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
$612m
November 2023
Blimey are these still going? This a new series or prequel or summat?
I reckon people will be keen for some more Catnip, but those recent comments about her being the first female action hero have been taken out of context and done a bit of damage to the sales.
Who knows? I bailed after awful first shakeycam, sub-Battle Royale/Soylent Green teeny outing.

Film 14 - Ghostbusters IV
$212m
December 2023
This'll fall somewhere between the last two films, but still be really popular.
I wonder how far the franchise can cruise on good faith and nostalgia, though.

Film 15 - Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
$881m
December 2023
First film made over a billion - £652m alone was thirty mums dragging their kids along to ogle Momoa.
Who bloody knows with the DC? They axed most of the cast now and only a few are hanging on.
I'll have a guess, but I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up as another WB tax write-off and it never gets released!

**QualityChimp** · 16-01-2023, 15:01

I'm done, but this is a reminder for anyone else who wants to have a guess.

**Neon Ignition** · 19-01-2023, 12:24

Time is ticking down on submitting your entries, throw your estimates in for a competition more heated than a Love Island housemate swap!

**Lebowski** · 19-01-2023, 13:13

Film 01 - Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania - $500M
I really like Antman but it never seems to get the audience of the other marvel films so i reckon its going to be bang on the first film at around 500 million

Film 02 - Shazam: Fury of the Gods - $290
Can't see this doing any better than the first film if anything id see it loosing out as super hero film rot sets in.

Film 03 - Super Mario Bros. 1.7 billion
I can see this going crazy and it has appeal across a lot of different markets and potential to be a massive summer blockbuster.

Film 04 The Little Mermaid - $600 million
theirs already controversy surrounding this with the "not my little mermaid" meme and as sad as this is i cant see it hitting the highs of the lion king. I just don't see this bridging the gender gap the way those films do.

Film 05 - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts - $900 million
The G1 Ascetics of prime and the really impressive trailer got me hyped for this in a way i haven't been for a transformers film since the first one and after really enjoying bumble bee i could see this doing a lot better than The last Knight.

Film 06 - The Flash - $200
like Antman i cant see this having the reach of other top tier characters its DC too so its bound to be messed up somehow.

Film 07 - Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny - $900 Million
If it reviews well i can see it having a bit of staying power at the box office Indy always dose well.

Film 08 - Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One - $300m
aren't people sick of these yet?

Film 09 - Oppenheimer - $300m
I dont know anything about this

Film 10 - Blue Beetle - $200m
Id be surprised if this makes more than an Antman film as the chatacer is a lot less well known

Film 11 - The Expendables 4 - $240m
has its fans i can see it making a profit but barely

Film 12 - Dune: Part Two - $401m
Everyone that went to see the first one will go to see this nodoubt so i expect it to match the first film

Film 13 - The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes - $250m
no clue

Film 14 - Ghostbusters IV - $400
I really liked afterlife and would love for the series to pick back up really surprised me how low the box office turn out was for it when you had Finn Wolfhard coming fresh of his success in stranger things and IT.

Film 15 - Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom - $480
First film must of been a fluke i cant see lightning striking twice.

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MCD 2023: Box Office Bingo II - WINNER REVEALED

MCD 2023: Box Office Bingo II - WINNER REVEALED

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