House Prices in 2008

[IainMcC]

What do people think: up, down, stagnate or crash?

I think we're overdue a house price "readjustment", as some economists rather euphemistically call it. There's definitely been a slowdown in house price inflation over the last year or so, and I don't think it's realistic to expect prices to keep going up indefinitely.

I don't think we're going to get a crash (estate agents are too bloody greedy to let that happen - do you think they really want to see their commissions slashed?), at least not in the immediate future, but I think a 30% drop would ultimately be a good thing for the housing market in the long term. Otherwise we're going to start reaching the point where you're going to get first-time house buyers in their 40's, because prices are just so ridiculous and salaries just can't keep up.

As far as I can see, it's the estate agents who are propping up the market - I don't think there's enough demand to keep prices this high forever. Personally, I'd hold off buying for at least another six months, unless you really need to buy and won't be looking to move house again for at least five years. The last thing you want to do is buy just before the market drops.

The only other factor that might help prop up house prices this year is the Bank of England having to cut interest rates to help boost the economy in general. If I were a betting man, I'd say we're going to see very modest growth in house prices for the first part of the year, before a drop-off towards the Autumn when the lack of cheap credit really starts to bite the market.

[ChrisF]

Everyone needs to join the revolution and buy/sell privately. Screw the estate agents

[RuBiQ]

I bought my 1st in 2004, a 3 bed semi on my own for a bargin 67k, its not in the best area but theres plenty of worse areas in Manchester. Had it valued recently as I was remortgaging and they said approx 100k to 110k if I did a few small improvements

33k isnt a bad profit in 3 years considering i rented for about 5 years at over 500 a month and then bills on top. Just gutted I didnt buy in the early 2000s

I cant see them dropping too much, theres more people than houses and everyone needs a house, espec the polish workers that are flooding the market and all the immigrants that the council will give a nice big house for free.

[Shez]

I can only comment on the area I live, but here the prices appear to have found their level - There is certainly a lot of choice if looking to buy at the moment.

The agents are still giving out big valuations on property's and generally people with a bog standard 3 bed semi are having to drop 5-10k off the original valuations to get people through the door and viewing.

[Kieran76]

Things appear to be slowing down around here at the moment (East London). When I first moved into the area houses that went up on the market seemed to sale almost instantly, now there are houses near me that have on the market for months. A huge crash would be nice than I could actually afford to buy a house.

[ChrisF]

Prices falling at 1990's rates according to the news today: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7191012.stm

[Nijo]

Now there's a misleading headline. The RICS survey is not quite as straight-forward as that.

Edit: But not as bad a headline as this:

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/31692/House-prices-fall-to-early-1990s-levels-

"HOUSE PRICES FALL TO 'EARLY 1990S LEVELS'"

Yeah, in my dreams.

[RuBiQ]

to be fair if your not planning on moving in the next 2 years or so it isnt worth a 2nd thought, I will move at some point for ive just remortgaged for another 2 years and get married in 18 months so it wont before then, the only catch is you make a profit on your house but then every other house in areas you want have also gone up therefore leaving it pretty hard to move to bigger houses/nicer areas unless you get a windfall from somewhere.

[Brats]

As far as I can see, it's the estate agents who are propping up the market - I don't think there's enough demand to keep prices this high forever.

Estate Agents have nothing to do with it and they never have. The price increases have been driven by demand. There is a demand for 3 million new houses, but only a million are being built. It's all to do with more people living alone, having more than one house, living longer, etc.

There simply aren't enough houses to go around. The only thing that has chaned is the recent credit crunch which has frightened off a few people from such a big investment and stopped some from getting a mortgage at all.

[ChrisF]

If I hear the phrase "credit crunch" one more time I'm going to go on a rampage. Such NONSENSE it's unbelievable.

[Herbalizer]

I'm annoyed that as a first time buyer who wants a house, not a flat, I'm being priced out of the market.

All the new builds in Swansea are sodding flats/Apartments, or 'I-Pads' as they like to call them. The market is going to be saturated with them. its very annoying for a young married couple who want to start a family. All the new housing estates only have 3/4 bedroom houses on them, everything else is apartments.

I've got about 10 viewings lined up for this weekend. We saw a lovely place last night but the second bedroom was too small. They were asking ?129,995 for it, lovely warm and homely cottage, but its worth about 10k less than that.

[Salsa Party Animal]

Look outside Swansea ?

Me when I pay off my credits card and loan off and plan to start looking in a year after paying it off. So I might have a look round in 2011 to see what my options are.

[Len]

Me and the wife to be will start looking at the end of this year or start of next after getting hitched in Sept.

Tis bloody madness though in London. We're looking at around ?250k for a decent sized one bedroom flat in a decent area (hopefully gonna try and buy the one we're renting at the moment - great location). We can just about afford it but jesus christ that's silly money, so fingers crossed for that crash this year which is defo coming...

[Herbalizer]

Look outside Swansea ?

Me when I pay off my credits card and loan off and plan to start looking in a year after paying it off. So I might have a look round in 2011 to see what my options are.

We are, but we only have one car at the moment and Swansea hasnt got a great transport network.

I was just pointing out the worrying trend of all the new properties being apartments.

[djjimbob]

to be fair if your not planning on moving in the next 2 years or so it isnt worth a 2nd thought, I will move at some point for ive just remortgaged for another 2 years and get married in 18 months so it wont before then, the only catch is you make a profit on your house but then every other house in areas you want have also gone up therefore leaving it pretty hard to move to bigger houses/nicer areas unless you get a windfall from somewhere.

I wonder what will happen to house prices when "our generation" inherits wealth from our parents? Let's say for example we are all 30 years old and our parents are all 60. In the next 10-20 years we are going to inherit quite a lot of wealth that is stored up in property.

That makes circa 2020 the next boom years (if it initiates a boom). Are we looking at a decade of stagnation or recession?