Was just reading the same page, grim reading indeed. Like you say though, a few lucky people will make millions out of this.
-
-
We have reached 'Deeper Panic' levels now. I'm going to the shelf and dusting off old painless and move into Fallows windmill...Comment
-
the people who make a lot of money out of markets like this aren't lucky, they have a large set and place the sort of trades/bets/punts that most people couldn't live with, not just financially but from a stress point of view.
for example my mate was spread betting on VW the other day, he was only allowed to do a penny a point as didn't have much in his account but in 2hrs this had generated £90 profit, from 1p a point !
the volatility is just pant wettingly scary, so anybody who steps in and gets a few quid deserves it.
nothing stopping most people getting a city index account or the like and sticking a few shorts on if you are feeling brave.Comment
-
VW is a special case - there was a *massive* short squeeze. Anybody that rode that up is very lucky!
As for shorting from here, the further we go down the riskier that is getting. I know people that have been shorting since last Summer - I kick myself for not doing it too! - but now is the time for people that cashed out to think about getting back in.
Maybe not right now, but at some point there's going to be a low, a fast reversal, and the burning of lots of shorts. Even a temporary blip up could be +20%.
Ok, I think there are 3 future scenarios:
1) The Dave Fallows "end of the world" scenario, for which it's good to invest in tinned beans and weapons because fiat cash will be useless (see zombie invasion thread).
2) The "it'll never be the same" scenario, where things carry on but through regulation it takes a long time to recover (see US 1929, Japan 1990).
3) The "it'll all blow over" scenario where everybody realises it was all a big mistake and we soon get back to 2006 levels of Sarah Beany.
Personally I think it'll be somewhere between 2 and 3 (closer to 2). To short from here you'd have to have a firm conviction that we're actually between 1 and 2.
Anyway, that's my take on it. So far I'm doing ok out of it but I'm worried that the euro is going to collapse....
Comment
-
I don't like these war comments. The whole world seems on knife edge. not good.Comment
-
Hey give it five years or so and you will be reliving it on GRAW 7.Comment
-
-
Of course, that would be an EA game not Ubisoft.Originally posted by capcom_suicide View Post
Comment
-
Is no one else considering purchasing some bank shares?Comment
-
Yes, maybe US bank shares. But I'm not convinced... let's see what happens with the Lehman auction today.
The UK has further to fall: house prices are only half way down.Comment
-
It's mighty tempting. It's a huge huge gamble but you could end up trippling your money.Originally posted by ItsThere View PostComment
-
Woah! I'm not talking about the end of the world!! Just the end of the financial system.
In which case yeah, 'buying' food might be a little hard until **** sorts itself out.
I find it sad how people automatically think that the end of money is a good excuse for blowing the f**k out of the planet in a crazy display of mutually assured destruction.Last edited by dataDave; 10-10-2008, 14:13.Comment
-
Did anybody read Newsweek magazine's special issue about 'The Future of Capitalism'? I think it was technically last week's issue as the new one is out today.
I don't normally read magazines like this aimed at business people but this one had an article by alleged philosopher Francis Fukayama highlighted on the front cover. He really grips my ****, so of course I had to buy and read
This guy is to business and capitalism what Marx is to the left - in the 90s he was proclaiming that Capitalism Had Won and brought about The End of History (as predicted by Marx, based on the ideas of Hegel). It's therefore interesting to hear what he has to say.
Firstly, he says, the current problems came about because nobody knew when to limit the freedom of markets - something capitalism opposes in principle. I agree completely. Anyone thinking the financial sector would be in any way moral or responsible without the shadow of regulatory whips is just plain naive.
Secondly, he says the future means a resurgence of regulation to fill the void, but also that the economic conditions of the future will make social democracy like we have here in the UK and Europe, unsustainable. We take too much time off work, and don't work enough hours, apparently.
This should worry everyone a great deal because if today's parallels with the Great Depression continue it'll be the working stiff who cops it the worst. Hours will get longer, wages will stagnate (though in many parts of the world they have been for years) and in the flurry of knee-jerk reactionary legislation being brought in to regulate the markets, workers rights are normally the first to go. Especially when business dictates the political agenda. A lot of people will lose their jobs completely as well, naturally.Comment
-
I agree with the first part - in fact the natural reaction will be to over-regulate. Maybe we'll even see banks run as non-profit utilities (which, following that chain of thought, will lead to all the highly paid "clever" people that invented this mess jumping ship and changing industry - high tech engineering perhaps).Originally posted by MattyD View Post
I don't see how he reaches the second point. I DO see a widespread recession next year with lots of layoffs and possibly civil unrest - maybe that's what was meant? Work harder or we'll lay you off?Comment
-
I thought outside of the US we work the second most hours in the western world compared to mainland Europe and also places like Nissan in Sunderland have the highest output outside of the Japan.Comment
Comment