Europe III: April F-EU-Ls

[Paulos G]

143. About halfway between our guesses.

[MartyG]

Surprised it's not a bit higher given it's the exact same deal.

If she keeps trying she might actually get it through on the 4th or 5th attempt

[Neon Ignition]

Theresanator 2: Judgement May?

Bazinga!

Corbyns already pushing for a GE because he's an utter moron. I might be off with this but a Guardian live feed update about May seemed to suggest that in order to extend A50 the EU is tabling that the UK would either have to intend to revoke A50 or hold a second referendum

[charlesr]

So in 2 years, the government has achieved nothing in relation to Brexit at all. Slow. Clap. Let's hope when we leave it's a little more speed y in getting things agreed.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/12/corbyn-calls-for-general-election-after-mays-brexit-defeat

Corbyn retreats to his own often defeated stance which will likely, now such avenues are more likely, lead to further fracturing in his own party as he once again copies May by pursuing his own self interest over the wishes of his party

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/12/brexit-mps-vote-theresa-may-backstop-deal-jeremy-corbyn-politics-live#5c882e45e4b0eff8e0fc1baf

Another rumble is that May and most of the cabinet will 'vote to cancel No Deal on 29 March'... does that mean revoking A50?
However there are also rumbles that May could actually have the bare faced cheek to attempt a third vote on her deal

[Cassius_Smoke]

So my guess is that the No deal vote will be against leaving without a deal and the extention vote will also fail. Meaning we are in the ****.
Some people just wanna watch the world burn.

[Neon Ignition]

May's Cabinet tonight...

[Dogg Thang]

Got to admit, this is starting to get a little dull. Those of us still in Europe will need to move on at some point. This is like when someone wants to leave the forum and keeps posting that they are leaving but then keeps replying to posts in the thread they made about why they are leaving,

[randombs]

[MartyG]

So my guess is that the No deal vote will be against leaving without a deal and the extention vote will also fail. Meaning we are in the ****.
Some people just wanna watch the world burn.

The likeliest outcome is still no deal.

Unless Article 50 is revoked that is the default outcome given May's deal has been rejected.

The EU is not going to give an extension unless there's a GE or 2nd referendum, which MPs don't want and TM won't revoke article 50.

That only leaves one position left: No Deal - and it doesn't matter if they vote today to rule it out, because they can't rule it out.

[Neon Ignition]

MP's would fold to demands from the EU for a GE/2nd Ref to get an A50 extension (which is why the EU should use that leverage) in order to avoid No Deal. The thing is, for all their posturing and time wasting one of the underlying problems this entire time is that the vast majority of MP's want to remain so the idea of submitting to No Deal opposes that to the extreme, plus an extension is a given in every scenario but No Deal. The issue for them now there's just 16 days remaining is that they need to form around which extension plan the majority of them would be willing to submit to. But yeah, personally, I don't think the chances of No Deal are that high as they know the easy majority of the electorate are dead set against it and every other scenario can at least be argued around later to some extent but they'll be wiped out for ignoring options.

[MartyG]

All it takes is one EU country to say no to an extension and there is no extension. The number one priority for the EU is the integrity of the EU, not helping the UK solve its internal issues.

That leaves rescind article 50 or leave without a deal. May will not rescind article 50.

And a General Election won't resolve anything.

[Dogg Thang]

Like I’ve said before, the EU will want to do what it can to avoid No Deal. But I can’t be the only one getting totally bored with the UK’s lack of any progress or sense of reality and, as you guys have expressed before, an extension only helps if something will actually be achieved in the new time frame given. We have no reason to believe that you’ll suddenly make progress unless you get an entire change of government. So it’s hard to see much benefit for the EU in an extension even with them desperately wanting to avoid a No Deal.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexit-tariffs-on-87-of-uk-imports-cut-to-zero-in-temporary-no-deal-plan

If No Deal happens the Government will slash tariffs to zero on 87% of imports. The government has also said that it would not introduce any border checks or controls on goods crossing the Irish border. The Director General for the Confederation of British Industry says this demonstrates how No Deal would be a sledgehammer blow to the economy

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/13/brexit-mps-to-vote-on-leaving-the-eu-with-no-deal-politics-live

Labour is now showing some staggering deafness again to reality. They're entrenching themselves deeply on the idea of another dangerous General Election and the idea of negotiating their own soft Brexit deal, a deal that has already been ruled out by the EU who aren't open to or in a position to reopen talks for most of the rest of the year and has no support across MP's either who rightly believe that if you align a deal with EU rules then you remove the point of leaving the EU altogether ergo Remain. Either way, Labour is now ducking and weaving to avoid a second referendum which will frustrate members.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/angela-merkel-said-it-would-be-easy-to-get-eu-to-extend-article-50

Angela Merkel has said that getting an A50 extension lasting till the end of June 2019 would be easy

[Neon Ignition]

My main frustration is MP's stubborn refusal to deal with Brexit in real terms. You have a deal, it gets defeated thereby meaning your plan has failed. After that there's only really one other option which is No Deal, if you rule that out too it means that you're facing remaining or working on some other deal that is openly not your original preferred arrangement and therefore MP's can in no way claim to support it as being in the best interests of the country or being what the public wanted when they voted leave. Constantly waffling on about 'delivering the will of the people' isn't a catch all get out clause and there's an already reached point where they have to concede their main attempt at delivering Brexit has failed.

When you're position is 'We couldn't make X1 work but we do have this other X2 option' then you have to ask the public, not just ram any old s--- on them and dare to pretend you know better than them as to what they wanted. If May etc are right that the public want No Deal or a bodged deal over Remain then there's nothing to fear from a reaffirming outcome of a second referendum. The trouble is they know Remain would likely win and they're petrified that that would mean they outright failed.