Europe III: April F-EU-Ls

[Dogg Thang]

Every part of this is ridiculous. Like I have said, ultimately there is no such thing as no deal because you can not exist without trade deals. Your country would collapse. You will be making trade deals now or later but you will be making them and you will have no more leverage later than you do now. Anyone sabotaging deals is only making things worse - the fact that an exit deal appears to exist that deals with the problem of how to handle NI is a minor miracle in itself. Things are going to get very messy if that issue is not dealt with head on.

It really feels like the UK has an air of complete self-destruction about it. From the insular thinking of the split itself (honestly, what's the end game there?) to two years of in-fighting and shrugging and incompetence. Having a hint of an exit deal to at least solve some issues is something that should be jumped at because it won't get any better than this for either the UK or the EU - it's no good for anyone to embrace the self-implosion that's going on there.

[Neon Ignition]

The trouble with the deal if they supported it is that it'd inevitably collapse in time anyway, too many opponents to it would eventually see it torn up and renegotiated. From the sounds of things the deal is so poor at delivering what either camp wants that it's a poorer set up than giving in to the second referendum demands

[Dogg Thang]

And the only better outcome from a second referendum is if it prevents Brexit entirely. The idea that a deal should be avoided because it would "inevitably collapse" is also ridiculous because it places you in a worse position on an assumption that you have no good reason to believe is true. Why make any deals then? Well, they might not work, eh? That again is that self-destructive mindset. It's like you are willing your own failure for some reason. Inviting it. I don't get why you would do that.

[Neon Ignition]

It's not inviting it, so much as I don't trust any of the current political parties to not find a way to torpedo it. Anyone who is pro-Remain and always has been would say that there is no such thing as a better 'deal' than the one we've enjoyed for decades as a member of the EU and we torpedoed that one easily enough. Same goes for placing ourselves in a worse position based on an assumption of how things will go, that's the definition of a Remain argument for how Leave won in the first place.

Once we're out, we're out and May's deal (if it survives) would have to stand on its own when even its biggest supporter (May) likely would fall fast and be replaced by someone less favourable to remain sympathies. Labour has pretty much confirmed it's no saviour to anyone either.

Honestly, I think this deal has finally sealed May's fate (if it weren't already) and the Leave vultures will be circling. If, if there's any room for a second referendum it seems to be the only way that one side or the other will get the outcome they want.


Don't get me wrong, for all the last two years debating over Brexit I'm fully on board with the idea that if you're going to leave in largely name only - just stay.

[Dogg Thang]

And yet the fact remains that you will be forced to make deals. That is absolutely unavoidable for the health of your country. Although like I say, this feels like a total self-destruction so maybe the health of the country isn't even a concern any more. But one thing is certain for me: I never buy into your "it might fail so why try?" mentality. May as well all just kill ourselves now if we took that view to life.

[Neon Ignition]

It's not a 'might fail so why try' mentality, anyone who thought like that would never have voted leave in the first place. On my part it's simply being highly doubtful that a government that has consistently proven itself incompetent on every level can convince the necessary numbers of leavers and remainers MPs to support a deal that reportedly pleases none of them. They've been warned the whole way of what both camps wouldn't accept and seem to have delivered exactly that scenario, hence in the seemingly likely scenario this all gets shot down it actually does seem like a second ref (as unlikely as one seems) would be their only out.

[Dogg Thang]

Under those circumstances any negotiation or planning over the last two years would have been a colossal waste of time and they should have given up on day one. The hope would have been that at some point some people would have realised that come concessions need to be made in order to progress. That may still happen. And if it doesn't, it's just self-destructive. It's shooting the country in the face for no good reason. And then you'll have to make those same deals later anyway.

[Neon Ignition]

Agreed, the issue seems to be that it became clear a long time ago that May wasn't going to get anywhere unless she veered deeply into what favoured one camp or the other. Either she committed the UK to a harder exit and used the time to plan for that outcome aggressively or she aligned herself with the EU closely to fall in sync or steer us towards cancelling Brexit but either would have likely seen her out of power long ago. It's seemed to be the one consistent through the whole saga - career led decision making from MP's taking precedence over national interest.

The result is it's hard to imagine the Tories having any standing post-Brexit to be taken seriously negotiating any trade deal with anyone going forward. Honestly, I'm at the point where I don't think I'd care if they called it off, I've zero faith in the current crop of MP's to be able to run a p*** up in a brewery let alone the country.

[Dogg Thang]

What worries me with Brexit and definitely well beyond Brexit is the seeming lack of any thoughts for the wellbeing of the country or indeed neighbouring countries. Common sense hasn't come into it. The welfare of people hasn't come into it. What's good for business hasn't come into it. It has enhanced divisions based on pretty much nothing. And for what end result? A more insular country. Probably other more insular countries. A weakened Europe. A divided Europe. The rise of the far right. Destabilised Western world. And it doesn't take a history professor to know that, in the past, this has eventually led to wars. You don't get a bunch of riled up insular countries sitting together and all smiling at each other.

Whatever about before the referendum, as time went on it became so clear how flawed the whole thing is and it's for nothing. Nobody wins here.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/14/brexit-deal-theresa-may-conservatives-meet-decide-cabinet-politics-live?page=with:block-5bebcbabe4b016737f1f486a#block-5bebcbabe4b016737f1f486a

DUP - Officially voting against the Deal

Sturgeon has said if NI gets a backstop then Scotland needs one too - presumably lining them up to move against the deal also

[Dogg Thang]

I'm actually surprised about the DUP. It feels like the alternative is a hard border and that's going to hit NI really hard. Scotland is in no way comparable because it doesn't have towns from another country a few feet away.

[Neon Ignition]

Something that's definitely become concerning post-Referendum is how, individual reasons for voting aside, there is clearly an international slow shift towards right leaning thinking. Well, probably not a shift as it was undoubtedly always there but it's looking like the left's voice is mostly that - just a voice - and that the fist of power keeps moving right. The stuff that's happened in the last two years... and without a public outcry.

It's like the whole Mid-terms scenario with Trump and how much of his voter base has stood by him despite... everything. Feels less like a statement and more like we're still on a road that's leading nowhere good.

[Dogg Thang]

Yep, agreed. It's really not good and, long term, it only leads to very dark and messy places. A decade ago it would have seemed unthinkable that people would have forgotten so many lessons from the past.

[MartyG]

Whatever about before the referendum, as time went on it became so clear how flawed the whole thing is and it's for nothing. Nobody wins here.

That's not true at all - some individuals stand to make financial gains from it: https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ney-britain-eu

[Dogg Thang]

Ah yes, I stand corrected. Same in the US too. Short term gain thinking and you just have to follow the money.

What I should have said was: nobody decent wins here.