Europe III: April F-EU-Ls

[Neon Ignition]

Yeah, that three way split is the same as that Labour MP was pushing for the other week and is tantamount to vote rigging. The thing is, the so called bad deal element of these polls is pointless as it's dead in the water, a defunct avenue. The economy being worse off is a bit loaded too, most leave voters expected that two years ago. I'd be curious if Leave voters still thought the UK economy would be poor as a result in 10+ years time after Brexit though, that's the game they were playing in 2016.

Thing is, until a Remain focused political party properly rears its head and gains some momentum it's hard to believe the groundswell of remain actually exists. Suppose it kills some news days though whilst they wait for actual developments to happen again.

[Dogg Thang]

Really? Hard to believe? Brexit barely made it over the line as it was and it has been farce after farce since then and the implications have become much clearer since the vote. It would barely take a nudge of a "groundswell" to have a majority not supporting Brexit and I imagine that has happened some time ago. Taking into account that the Leave campaign broke referendum rules to get that barely over the line result, it would seem more and more like the idea that pushing this forward regardless of the outcome isn't quite a victory for democracy as it once may have been.

[gIzzE]

I know loads of people who voted remain who now want out, many of them are now seeing EU Parliaments attitude as bullying tactics.

Personally I have always said we will walk away with no deal, the EU is ****ting itself and is desperate for us to stay, they can not give us a deal and to think otherwise is naive at best.


I also know loads of people who wanted out who would rather remain than tie ourselves up with a crap deal.

I think if it was a vote on remain or leave with no deal (which isn't actually no deal because we will move on WTO rules) I bet the result would be the same.

[QualityChimp]

Brexit is like going out with your mates and the one guy doesn't want to go to any of the bars you suggest, but refuses to suggest which bar he does want to go to.

Then blames you when you don't actually go anywhere.

[Dogg Thang]

Or he can't remember the name of the bar he wants to go to and it closed down 40 years ago and also never existed.

[gIzzE]

Brexit is like going out with your mates and the one guy doesn't want to go to any of the bars you suggest, but refuses to suggest which bar he does want to go to.

Then blames you when you don't actually go anywhere.

Is that one guy a leaver or remainer?

[fishbowlhead]

Is that one guy a leaver or remainer?

He’s the guy who believed the bus and hates immigrants, despite the fact all his mates are immigrants.

[Neon Ignition]

If there was a second referendum I fully believe Remain would win, I just don't believe it would be anywhere near as convincing as Remainers think it would be hence hardly a groundswell of support more just a small tilt. The media has banged on about a second referendum and how bad Brexit is for a very long time now and I'm not saying it's sunshine and lollipop time but it certainly is fuel for news outlets who thrive on bad news. It's the public that I doubt have veered from their position that strongly, they've just gone quieter because there's less need to be vocal when you're getting the result you want.

It's really hard to care about Leave groups breaking spending limits too when Remain groups did the same but were already fined for breaking spending rules last year so it's not as topical to mention now the clock is running out. A win in a second referendum just maintains a stalemate position. You have two parties who are both committed to leaving the EU, with no-one giving a care at all for the one party that is pro-Remain, then you have a second referendum where we vote to stay in the EU except then that leads to a third referendum because it inevitably leads to a surge in outcries that the second overrode the first wrongly as you have to actually leave for a length of time to definitively prove that being in is a necessity enough to warrant another vote. At this point a second referendum would be voting because it's hard rather than a failure which makes the UK look even more pathetic internationally than we already do - Overturning a public decision because of the effort involved, lack of long term commitment and an inability to make up our minds.

Given the time to even realistically attempt a second vote has been and gone it comes back to the old point that leading Leave MPs and the Tories have massively failed to carry out the process with any real sense of confidence or competence, but equally the Remain side have utterly wasted their time and shown themselves to be equally weak and useless by spending the entire time whining like children instead of helping to steer the process.

Brexit probably will go very badly for us. Not because it has to, but because the date will come and go with no brains put into it and then people will leap onto Labour as a statement at the next GE and they'll plow the country into the ground trying to please everyone again.

Like before, leaving the EU is not that massive a deal unless we, the UK, make it one which we seem hellbent on doing so. Cross party, objectively planned with proper due consideration given to make sure we exit on reasonable interim terms so we can spend the next 10 years adjusting to best suit ourselves. If Trump can get Juncker to say he'll work towards Free Tariffs after a weekend then Christ, the UK needs to grow some nuts and get it's head together after 18 months of wheelspinning.

[Dogg Thang]

At this point a second referendum would be voting because it's hard rather than a failure which makes the UK look even more pathetic internationally than we already do - Overturning a public decision because of the effort involved, lack of long term commitment and an inability to make up our minds.

Got to be honest with you here. As one of those "internationally" people, I can tell you that few things could make the UK look worse than stumbling blindly into a terrible position for no other reason than stubbornness at this point. Unless footage of Cameron and the pig comes out, it's not going to get much lower. You probably have an idea of how Farage looked as an MEP, right? You'll have seen the videos. That's now how the country looks. Making a more informed decision does not in any way make a country (or indeed person) look pathetic. That shows growth, an ability to examine the facts, and a willingness to learn.

[fishbowlhead]

That shows growth, an ability to examine the facts, and a willingness to learn.

He’s making sense, we can’t have that, get him!

[charlesr]

2016: LSE warns of 100,000 jobs across UK if UK loses ability to process Euro transaction.

2018: Deutsche Bank has moved half of its Euro transaction clearing from London to Frankfurt. It is starting.

Also is this stuff about a 17 mile lorrypark on the M20 correct? Sounds implausible. Why would anyone bother bringing stuff over if their drivers have to sleep on the M20 for a few weeks. Seems more likely that the UK would just stop doing checks, letting anything in, otherwise we'd be screwed. It would leave us exposed to dodgy traders obviously. But hey, taking back control and all that.

[gIzzE]

He’s the guy who believed the bus and hates immigrants, despite the fact all his mates are immigrants.

OK.

And you genuinely think thats why people voted to leave the EU?


In fact don't bother answering, you have summed yourself up very well with that reply anyway.

[Neon Ignition]

Got to be honest with you here. As one of those "internationally" people, I can tell you that few things could make the UK look worse than stumbling blindly into a terrible position for no other reason than stubbornness at this point. Unless footage of Cameron and the pig comes out, it's not going to get much lower. You probably have an idea of how Farage looked as an MEP, right? You'll have seen the videos. That's now how the country looks. Making a more informed decision does not in any way make a country (or indeed person) look pathetic. That shows growth, an ability to examine the facts, and a willingness to learn.

That's something I can't really fall in sync with. I'm not disagreeing in terms of sense, you're spot on on that front but what you're describing sounds more applicable to an individual rather than nations and political bodies where morals and right mean much less. The UK reversing its decision wouldn't really impact on those fronts. They don't care about our personal growth, we could be twice as dodgy and as long as the terms are agreeable we'd be making bank. For facts, what facts though? Sure there are the facts that we are currently feeling the impacts of having undergone the Brexit process but we literally don't yet know the facts of not being in the EU because we won't have actually tried it for up to the next 6-18 months. By saying it's all awful and unworkable we're telling the other 160+ non-EU countries of the world that we can't even go through with and attempt something we enacted ourselves let alone something they live with as a rule. That and then there's the EU 27 themselves.

There is no going back. If we suddenly U-turn the economy won't bounce back, the EU 27 will never trust us on any level again for internal EU matters, prices for the public will stay higher and the rest of the world will shrug us off because... we don't stick to key, major issues because if we can't even see it through for ourselves why would we for them?

The political and economical world is a cruel mistress and I'm at this point very doubtful myself that our parties have the IQ to do it well but I'd be perfectly happy with another EU referendum to decide whether to rejoin once we know the true reality of life as an independent nation. Which would be likely sometime post 2030-2035. If by that point we're still the fifth or sixth biggest economy and the dust is settled, go through it in reverse again? The long term is the key one way or the other.

[gIzzE]

I'm all for a second referendum, and I think we should start planning for a third as well, just in case it does not get the right result again.

[fishbowlhead]

OK.

And you genuinely think thats why people voted to leave the EU?


In fact don't bother answering, you have summed yourself up very well with that reply anyway.

Let’s keep it civil gIzzE. I’m trying to lighten the utterly depressing subject up, ok.