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Europe IV: The Final Hour
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The European Commission is kicking off with the UK government as it emerges that the UK plans to leave abandoned Shell Oil Rigs standing in the North Sea, the EUC calling the rigs a ticking time bomb.
Sajid Javid is to add yet another £2bn to the budget for No Deal preparations
Labour has confirmed in the last hour that they will not support Johnson's motion to call a General Election today.
Keir Starmer has said that it may well prove preferable for now to instead go ahead in calling a vote of No Confidence in Johnson and putting together the short term alternative Government to deal with Brexit and kick the inevitable GE into the long grass rather than play into Johnson's hands.
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I'm afraid people are reading this entirely incorrectly; if you think this hasn't been gamed out by Cummings, you've not been paying attention.
I think it's likely the Benn motion will pass and if Johnson doesn't get his GE motion passed, he'll refuse to ask for an extension. Corbyn will then have to put forward a motion of no confidence which ultimately will lead to a GE, which is really what Cummings wants and will play against this populism narrative that's unfortunately working so well at the moment in many countries.
I think all this is doing is delaying a No Deal Brexit, something I think is still the most likely outcome presently. It doesn't matter if the motion is passed today, if Johnson wins a GE with a majority, such statute will be repealed and Johnson will be controlling the agenda again.
There is absolutely no way a interim caretaker government will last more than a few weeks.
Brexit is a Kobayashi Maru situation.Last edited by MartyG; 04-09-2019, 08:09.
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Originally posted by MartyG View PostThere is absolutely no way a interim caretaker government will last more than a few weeks.
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Not sure that's much of a consideration right now. If they crash out of the EU, all focus is going to have to go on cleaning up all the messes, large and small, that creates. No pre-existing problem will be getting fixed because it will all be about fixing all the new ones. If Brexit is avoided, which seems highly unlikely, then fixing the country's pre-existing problems will come back into focus only long after the division messes and political battles play out, which feels like it could take a long time.
With Brexit happening, fixing the country's problems just isn't going to happen no matter who is in there doing it.
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It's worrying that many commentators think No Deal is going to be or has been stopped by this political manouvering.
The language Johnson has been scripted to use in recent days isn't accidental. The Surrender Bill, Pointless Delay, Handing Back Control, Infinite Delay - it's all designed to anger their core and rally support; it's directly from the Trump playbook and plays into that whole people vs the establishment mindset. This is far far far from a win.
Passing this bill also softens the ability for the more centerists of the conservative voters to continue supporting their party; if the threat of no deal is diminished, supporting Johnson becomes easier.
Removing the whip from the MPs is a more dangerous move, but if these seats are safe conservative pro brexit constituencies, then parachuting in pro brexit conservative candidates into them is an astute move. It might enrange some of the more moderate MPs of the party, but if there was going to be mass resignations over it, it would already have happened this morning.
The Scotish court has also now ruled prorogation of parliament is lawful, as was entirely expected, this too will follow in the other court cases.
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I really think that if there's going to be a GE, it needs to be before the 31st October. Preventing Johnson from exiting the EU will most certainly allow him to play the establishment traitors stopped us leaving the EU card as demonstrated.
The problem is, polling shows that a No Deal Brexit doesn't really scare people and especially those who voted to leave.
The YouGov poll this question is from also asked what impact they think a No Deal Brexit will have and a large majority (on both sides) expressed the opinion it will impact jobs, economy and food prices and still we see an overall percentage that only 29% of people will be really angry or upset about it.
Johnson isn't targetting those people as nothing he can do will get them onside. It'll be the Don't Knows, Either way and possibly those that are disappointed, especially in marginal seats with a big leave contigent he'll be gunning for. I wouldn't count the disappointed as being totally against a No Deal, just the Angry and Betrayed. He's already got the Delighted, please and relieved onboard and if he can eek out more of the Brexit Party votes the more likely it is the Tories will take a majority.
You either want No Deal to happen and let the consequences and reality of it sink in and then hold an election or allow a GE to happen before the deadline and hope that Johnson doesn't get a majority government. I think preventing a GE and obstructing Johnson at the same time isn't a good GE strategy for the opposition.
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These last two charts are from here: https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...look-good-betsLast edited by MartyG; 04-09-2019, 14:42.
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The BBC's numbers on this are staggering:
There is definitely a contingent of people - a large contingent, for whom if they were told that we were getting a no-deal, and that it would cause some problems, potentially screw up a few things for nearly a generation, would still vote no-deal.
Like somehow the vague notion of "sovereignty" is more important to them than any pragmatic thing.
This is the problem when you compare pragmatics to ideology.
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New YouGov poll results:
-46% think Johnson's suspension of parliament is undemocratic vs 32% who are fine with it
-45% think throwing out rebel MP's was undemocratic vs 32%
-22% of voters think people voted Leave with No Deal in mind in 2016
-53% now support a Second Referendum excluding 'don't know' voters
-39% of voters believe Johnson is serious when he says he wants a deal vs 42% who think he's full of it
More than 100,000 have registered to vote in the last 48hrs, mostly young voters.
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That seems to be at odds with their polling from today
If you remove the don't knows it's 47.4% to 52.6%
And removing don't knows it's 57% to 43%
Sadly I think Johnson is playing exactly the right tune for his audience; those suggesting he's a muppet digging his own grave are being deafened by the whoosh I fear - a miscalculation and complacency similar to how Trump managed to get elected.Last edited by MartyG; 04-09-2019, 16:02.
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