Europe IV: The Final Hour

[Cepp]

It's a strategy that won't work; opposition to Johnson is falling into the same trap as opposition to Trump. Pointing out Trump's lies hasn't had much impact (people don't seem to care). Pointing out Trump hasn't built a wall hasn't had much impact (people see it as Trump being blocked). Pointing out Trump's racism and bigitory hasn't had much impact (people seem to see it as a strength, not a weakness). Pointing out Trump's use of language hasn't had much impact (people seem to like it).

Playing the same tactics against Johnson is equally likely to fail, but this appears to be the current strategy. I don't think forcing Johnson to seek an extension with the EU whilst blocking a General Election is going to be the downfall folks are expecting it to be. It's not being seen as Johnson failing, it's being seen as Johnson being blocked by the establishment, it plays right into the hands of the populism movement.

I can forsee shock and disbelief just as there was when Trump was elected with the same "how could anyone vote for him?" questions arising if they carry on down this road. They really need to wake up and find a tactic that makes it less of us vs them issue.

And, as expected once again, Prorogation is ruled lawful: https://www.theguardian.com/politics...gh-court-rules

So, what do you think they should be doing?

I'm not so sure he's going to be able to pull a Trump tbh and I don't think he can get away with calling Corbyn the establishment. I don't see northern towns voting Tory either.

[vanpeebles]

So, what do you think they should be doing?

I'm not so sure he's going to be able to pull a Trump tbh and I don't think he can get away with calling Corbyn the establishment. I don't see northern towns voting Tory either.

A lot of northern towns will vote for brexit party. Labour are on a very shaky ground with their once staunch working class vote.

[Cepp]

A lot of northern towns will vote for brexit paròty. Labour are on a very shaky ground with their once staunch working class vote.

Indeed, and I am worried about that. The Brexit party will be taking a chunk of the Tory vote as well though and they'll have the Lib Dems to contend with.

I just dont buy the idea that Johnson is going to be underestimated and take everyone by surprise. Everyone knows he's pulling stuff from Trumps playbook but he's done a poor job of it so far.

Not that I do know how its going to go of course, I can only hope for the best.

[MartyG]

So, what do you think they should be doing?

I'm not so sure he's going to be able to pull a Trump tbh and I don't think he can get away with calling Corbyn the establishment. I don't see northern towns voting Tory either.

As I said earlier, try and energise those that haven't voted in the key marginals, get the under 30s out to vote and move away from a Us vs Them with a message that's progressive and positive, highlight Johnson's previous pro-EU musings to prey on the insecurities of the more extreme Tory vote to push them back to Brexit Party and split the support. Since Johnson became PM, the Tories have gained 10% back from the Brexit vote. LibDems are not taking Tory votes, they're taking Labour votes.

I think you're underestimating the widening divide of Brexit, with each side moving more to the extremes, but what's very clear is that delaying Brexit either way is not popular anywhere except London

https://www.politico.eu/pro/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/

Johnson is drawing a line and saying that's it, Corbyn is dithering. If stopping Brexit was a vote winner, LibDems would be busting the polling charts now, they're not sadly. So split the Brexit vote, field candidates tactically in key marginals with other parties and press forward a more positive message. Then hope for a hung parliament in which allows a Lib/Lab/Green/SNP alliance over Tory / Brexit.

[Neon Ignition]

It's amazing my eyes don't hurt from how hard an eye rolling a situation MP's have made this. They might all disagree about a Brexit strategy but there literally has to be a pecking order in terms of likelihood of outcome and preference. Whichever Brexit MP's are least opposed to - slap it onto a Referendum and be done with it. Instead no, we'll continue waffling through the nonsense doing endless damage and pretending that a General Election is in any way shape or form an accurate or appropriate way of measuring public support for a single policy.

[MartyG]

It's amazing my eyes don't hurt from how hard an eye rolling a situation MP's have made this. They might all disagree about a Brexit strategy but there literally has to be a pecking order in terms of likelihood of outcome and preference. Whichever Brexit MP's are least opposed to - slap it onto a Referendum and be done with it. Instead no, we'll continue waffling through the nonsense doing endless damage and pretending that a General Election is in any way shape or form an accurate or appropriate way of measuring public support for a single policy.

Brexit MPs, there's your biggest hurdle in the whole quagmire - most MPs have always been Pro Remain



(Of course there are a few changes since the 2017 elections - I'm not sure there's been a true poll of MPs since).

[MartyG]

-Removed as quote dupe of above-

[Lebowski]

A lot of northern towns will vote for brexit party. Labour are on a very shaky ground with their once staunch working class vote.

I'm up north in Yorkshire and my area always seem to vote Tory, i think a lot of people see it as a lifestyle choice like shopping at Waitrose or driving a Landrover, it really is a sad state of affairs. The Brexit party aren't really gonna pull away that type of voter they are pulling away the nations sun readers, they seem to appeal to the gullible, the racists, and the misguided.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/06/brexit-boris-johnson-news-latest-eu-labour-confirms-it-will-not-vote-on-monday-night-for-early-election-live-newsbior

New Poll suggests that if a General Election takes place after October with Johnson having failed to have the UK leave on the 31st then the Tory voting numbers would be hit hard by voters switching back to the Brexit Party and the Tories would find themselves neck and neck with Labour making it a coalition face off.

[Dogg Thang]

Did you see the KFC thing? The larger ongoing problem here (like Brexit isn't large enough) is that things are getting messy and nasty and juvenile. And in any kind of decent world, that would cost the Tories all support but that isn't the reality. Some of their voter base will lap it up and that in itself only nurtures ill feeling and divisions as they buy into this conflict while the others resent it for being the juvenile rubbish that it is. So the Tories can stay in power but in a country where a large portion of the country, likely the majority, actively despise them. That's a messy, messy situation and Brexit will only make it worse. If a no deal Brexit happens, no doubt there will be real consequence and, even outside that, anyone who stubs their toe in the UK in the next ten years will blame it on Brexit and the people who made it happen.

The divisions being created right now are going to be a problem for many governments, I reckon.

[MartyG]

Okay, have found the poll data and the actual question that was asked, this was done 30th Aug to 3rd Sept.

https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-work/represent-us-brexit-voting-intentions-poll/

Q2. If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Base: All respondents eligible to vote and expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)

Conservative 527 - 37%
Labour 427 - 30%
Liberal Democrat 231 - 16%
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 14 - 1%
Scottish National Party (SNP) 40 - 3%
Plaid Cymru 11 - 1%
Green Party 57 - 4%
The Brexit Party 128 - 9%
Another party 8 - 1%

Plugging this into Electoral Calculus:



Q3. Scenario One: Imagine that Brexit is delayed beyond 31 October 2019 and a general election is held shortly after, while Britain is still a member of the European Union (EU).
Base: All respondents eligible to vote and expressing an intention to vote (Turnout Weighted)

Conservative 417 - 28%
Labour 422 - 28%
Liberal Democrat 251 - 17%
UK Independence Party (UKIP) 26 - 2%
Scottish National Party (SNP) 39 - 3%
Plaid Cymru 5 - *
Green Party 53 - 4%
The Brexit Party 262 - 18%
Another party 7 - *

Plugging this into Electoral Calculus:



Labour would need a pact with SNP and the LibDems to be able to form a majority government. The price of SNP agreeing to a pact will be another independence vote and for the LibDems a 2nd Brexit referendum I would guess.

It's some good news (definitely happier seeing those percentages) as splitting the Brexit vote I think is a good tactic, but the question doesn't qualify the reason for Brexit delay which I do think has a baring on the weighting. I also think if there's a delay you might see a pact forming between Tories and Brexit Party which would throw those numbers off completely (Johnson offering a peerage to Farage for his co-operation perhaps).

[Neon Ignition]

Given the latter scenario now looks like the more likely one it begs the question as to why Labour are so keen if their best shot outlook is a shakey coalition with 2 referendums attached with two other parties. They're aggressively after a GE for a party incapable of winning one on its own, or is it simply that this is likely Corbyns last desperate stab at the top job?

The latter scenario sounds favourable though, surely a GE campaign would lead to voters jumping from Tory to Brexit Party but you have to hope Brexit Party would lose its coalition edge in that scenario because so many Tories despise that idea and in a GE campaign they'd actually have to come up with some policies and have a little light cast on their shady corner of politics so could have their appeal dulled by scrutiny. They are after all simply UKIP rebranded.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/boris-johnson-could-go-to-jail-if-he-refuses-to-delay-brexit/ar-AAGWOZD

Johnson could be jailed if he refuses to extend A50

[Brad]

Let us remember, ask for a delay. He has to ask. EU could likely say no because every single member has to agree and some of them hate us.

[Dogg Thang]

Not only that, there needs to be a reason to delay and, honestly, the UK is not looking like it will sort itself out any time soon.

So... after Brexit, I think the next step will be the UK going to war with someone. Who do we reckon it will be?