Europe IV: The Final Hour

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/boris-johnson-no-brexit-until-january-block-christmas-general-election

The parties jostle over a GE, showcasing how poor it will be at sorting out Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/26/opinium-poll-observer-uk-voters-regret-brexit-referendum-conservative-lead-over-labour

Whilst 57% of those polled, compared to 29% in favour, say the first referendum should have never been held

[MartyG]

Whilst the Tories pull out another 3 points, mostly at the expense of the Brexit party on Opinium's latest poll (this one done on 25th Oct)



(Managed to cut off the headers, it's Con, Lab, Lib, Brexit, Green)

Updated charts to include date which is why they've changed in appearance a bit.


upload

[Neon Ignition]

I just don't get how Corbyn thinks he's going to win a GE

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/28/boris-johnsons-election-vote-looms-as-eu-decides-on-brexit-delay-politics-live

The EU have agreed an extension to A50 till 31 January 2020.

If Johnson doesn't get enough voted for his third pass at a GE this afternoon then No.10 is increasingly likely to support the Lib-Dem motion that agrees a GE three days earlier than the Tories proposed.

[MartyG]

Corbyn is running out of places to hide for not having a GE now - I suspect Labour will still find a reason not to support one though, but with the extension and Lib-Dem motion that fixes a GE date in stone, that reason will look very suspect.

[Dogg Thang]

I guess my question is why would anyone outside of the Tories support one? It shouldn’t happen (yet again) right in the midst of this Brexit mess and it will be sold as a Brexit mandate while trying to avoid any kind of real vote on the actual issue itself. A GE right now is nothing more than a scam from a group who have shown themselves to be trying to undermine the process. Why should there be a GE?

[Neon Ignition]

It's largely all about the Lib Dems screwing over the voter again. They get to dramatically increase their presence in Westminster before Brexit happens and the bubble bursts on their little rebellion. Happily throwing the country away to the mercy of Johnson's choice of Brexit for some short term party seating gains. Labour have carried out one of the most astounding mutli-year self mutilation attempts ever seen since 2016 and whether he likes it not Corbyn will gone within 12 months.

[QualityChimp]

Am I right in thinking the only reason Johnson wants a General Election is because the Conservatives think they'll get a majority vote this time, with no coalition needed?

That way, they can just leave with No Deal?

[Hirst]

It's not going to matter, in a few days he'll be dead in a ditch (he promised).

[MartyG]

I guess my question is why would anyone outside of the Tories support one? It shouldn’t happen (yet again) right in the midst of this Brexit mess and it will be sold as a Brexit mandate while trying to avoid any kind of real vote on the actual issue itself. A GE right now is nothing more than a scam from a group who have shown themselves to be trying to undermine the process. Why should there be a GE?

Because the only way you're going to get any legislation passed in Parliament now is by changing the parliamentary arithmetic. You're not going to get a 2nd referendum without it, you're not going to get any Brexit legislation passed without it and continuingly denying an election isn't a good look for Labour. Currently Johnson doesn't own Brexit and the only way to rid the country of him is to allow him to properly fail.

The lack of a Brexit on 31st October isn't because of Johnson and that's why he's still doing well in the polls.

[Neon Ignition]

So, from the polls - and given how end results can diverge from them - what are the chances of (presumably a coalition) the end results of a GE producing an outcome where the Tories aren't in charge?

[Lebowski]

Because the only way you're going to get any legislation passed in Parliament now is by changing the parliamentary arithmetic. You're not going to get a 2nd referendum without it, you're not going to get any Brexit legislation passed without it and continuingly denying an election isn't a good look for Labour. Currently Johnson doesn't own Brexit and the only way to rid the country of him is to allow him to properly fail.

The lack of a Brexit on 31st October isn't because of Johnson and that's why he's still doing well in the polls.

He also has the British media in his pocket singing his praises. The other day before the latest vote the Mail the sun and the express where running headlines along the lines of "MP'S hes done his duty now you need to do yours" i find it really dangerous that their trying to push Johnson as this will of the people person when the only thing hes trying to further his his own career, and his backers bank balance's.

It really dose make me wonder why so many in the UK think the Tories are on there side when even the smallest amount of research shows that they are in some very rich peoples pockets, their policy's and decisions reflect this.

[MartyG]

So, from the polls - and given how end results can diverge from them - what are the chances of (presumably a coalition) the end results of a GE producing an outcome where the Tories aren't in charge?

If the polls are accurate (and there's around a 2-4% error rate), then currently the Tories will get a majority of around 60 MPs.

In this scenario they and they alone will then subsequently own any Brexit outcomes. The opposition will be able to vote against anything they don't like (unlike currently where they have to vote with government for anything to pass, so they partly own Brexit) and the Tories will carry the vote for.

In that scenario, either it all goes horrible wrong and the Tories have to take ownership as it's their doing and no one else's, or we do get unicorns and rainbows so happy days.

The downside is you have 5 years of Tory government, but a horrendous Brexit outcome will at least mean we won't see them in government for a decade afterwards.

It really dose make me wonder why so many in the UK think the Tories are on there side when even the smallest amount of research shows that they are in some very rich peoples pockets, their policy's and decisions reflect this.

It's a case of aspiration...

[QualityChimp]

the Tories will get a majority of around 60 MPs.

In that scenario, either it all goes horrible wrong and the Tories have to take ownership as it's their doing and no one else's, or we do get unicorns and rainbows so happy days.

The downside is you have 5 years of Tory government, but a horrendous Brexit outcome will at least mean we won't see them in government for a decade afterwards.

It's like a particularly horrible "would you rather" questions.

[MartyG]

It's nearly win-win. If Brexit is a disaster then the Tories own it and it's goodbye Johnson and we'll never want to leave the EU again.

If Brexit isn't a disaster and we really are better off out of the EU, then we can praise the strength of the economy and reap the rewards.

The downsides being either we have to weather the storm for a while, or we have to look at Johnson's smug face.

I see https://britainelects.com/polling/westminster/ is down at the moment due to traffic (too many worried Labour MPs hitting F5 over and over hoping the charts have changed).