United Kingdom V: Son of a beach

[fishbowlhead]

But not that shocked.

[fallenangle]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...in-a-fortnight
ONS updates the fatality figures adding over 4,000 out of hospital deaths from the last fortnight showing what a waste of time the daily hospital deaths update has become.

The figures seem to me to be indecipherable and hugely suspect .

The fact is at this time of year in the UK around 10,000 to 11,000 people die every week in hospital or within 30 days of leaving hospital. That's what the Office of National Statistics' own web site says.

This is normal, which may surprise some people, and of course the actual figure for UK deaths every week will be even higher as those stats are only for deaths where hospitalization was involved. Fatal vehicle and industrial accidents as well as home deaths which could involve anything from accidents to long term fatal diseases, where the patient has not been hospitalized in the previous 30 days, are not included. Covid-19 could be involved in some of those deaths too but without testing no one knows.

The figure that needs to be looked at is not counting the death certificate blaming Covid-19 it is how many more people than that norm are dying each week.

But even that will not tell the full story because the forced change in lifestyle will have muddied the waters even more. Less people traveling to work = less fatal car accidents and less fatal work place accidents but could also hide an increase in suicides and homicides, possibly even stress related fatal heart attacks and strokes bought on by the forced isolation.

Without testing and a clear and universally accepted definition of what a Covid-19 caused death actually is the stats we're getting, like some sort of daily battlefield casualty rate, are almost meaningless. It could be more or less serious than the figures suggest but who knows?

[Asura]

Without testing and a clear and universally accepted definition of what a Covid-19 caused death actually is the stats we're getting, like some sort of daily battlefield casualty rate, are almost meaningless. It could be more or less serious than the figures suggest but who knows?

This is the thing, right?

To give a very circumstantial example, I saw an argument recently online, where someone was arguing over what the "acceptable" casualty level was, saying that either you should believe "zero", or you're a heartless monster. That's kinda the issue; no-one is happy about it but that's life. The government can't be run by reactionaries on Twitter.

Conversely, they need to be conscientious and not take actions which lead to deaths which could be avoided, but I think the only way to improve that is to bulk up on testing, and fast.

[Dogg Thang]

No country has completely accurate figures for exactly those reasons. Infection rate figures are dependent on there being enough testing to gauge. And lots of deaths weren't counted in the early days (like the retirement home ones). So yes, it could be more serious or less serious. But given most countries are in the same boat with regard to these challenges, what you can say is that, even if less serious than the figures make out (which seems like the less likely scenario of the two), it's still serious and some countries are doing better than others and that's always worth examining. The figures are not meaningless in spite of the impossibility of total accuracy.

[MartyG]

The figures seem to me to be indecipherable and hugely suspect .

The fact is at this time of year in the UK around 10,000 to 11,000 people die every week in hospital or within 30 days of leaving hospital. That's what the Office of National Statistics' own web site says.

Not sure what you're getting at here.

You're right that the average weekly figures are 10-11K. but the deaths this year for roughly the same week are at 22.351 meaning there are 11-12K surplus deaths.

The hospital COVID figures for that period are 5618 - the additional 4313 deaths from ONS takes this to 9931, so there are still additional 1-2K deaths surpless not attributed to COVID-19, these might or might not be attributable to other causes.

The ONC collates all registered deaths, but as these can take time to get officially reported, the only ones that can be easily and accurately reported daily are those from the hospitals from the previous 24 hours, these are then adjusted once the collated ONC figures are available and published in their publically accessible spreadsheet.

The fact is COVID-19 is causing more deaths that would normally be expected on average over the last five years, no one is hiding the numbers and there's not some massive conspiracy going on here.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/apr/29/inquests-nhs-staff-deaths-ppe-shortages

An inquest into the death of NHS staff due to Coronavirus has been told that it shouldn't exam systemic failures to provide PPE to workers

[fishbowlhead]

Gov: no no we definitely haven’t failed at literally EVERYTHING, no not us, we didn’t do anything, nothing to see here, no need for an enquiry.

[Golgo]

But...but the selfless, heroic prime minister is electing not to take paternity leave straight away! Surely this is all that matters?!

(I find it grimly amusing that this is the only positive spin the Tory press office can find today to put on this deadly farrago of incompetence and lies).

[Cassius_Smoke]

It's a good job all that testing they said would happen by the end of the month is happening now.

[MartyG]

Woefully short of the 100,000 people tested target.

Yesterday they ran 52,429 tests but they must be running tests on the same people over and over because the unique number of people tested has only risen by 26,097.

There is no possible way that the lockdown can be relaxed without massively increasing the antibody testing, although if NY testing is anything to go by, the number of previously infected people is still only in the mid-teens. which again means lockdown cannot be relaxed because the moment you do, there's a convenient pool of 85% of the population to infect.

Tim Martins thinking he's opening his pubs in June is living in a fantasy land.

[MartyG]

You reckon the universe is trying to tell us something at the moment?

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/apr/29/asteroid-passing-earth-1998-or2-wednesday-near-4m-miles-face-mask-fly-by

(When I first read it, I thought it said 3.9 miles)

[Cassius_Smoke]

The BBC covered the tory failure by showing a clip of BJ from 6 weeks ago promising 25k tests a day and saying he's accomplished it. Well thats OK then.

[CMcK]

I still can’t understand why the Tories think the BBC is biased against them.

[Dogg Thang]

It’s strategy. Make that the narrative and any criticism looks like bias. As more people buy into it and the longer it goes on, it further shifts the centre so that the media and the country with it goes further and further right while claiming balance all the way. Centrists will look at media complaints from left wing and from right wing and say they come from both sides and therefore there is no bias but they’re being played.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/30/greggs-postpones-re-opening-uk-bakery-stores

Greggs have reversed their decision to reopen 20 stores due to concerns about maintaining social distancing