Rishi Sunak claims new Rwanda asylum bill will prevent legal challenges | Rishi Sunak | The Guardian​
Rumbles are that there's a chance that the Tories are so fundamentally moronic that they might be gearing up to challenge Sunak's leadership and trigger a new leadership contest due to the party turning on itself again over the Rwanda plan. The plan has been revealed to have already doubled in cost, paying out £290m despite not a single flight taking off.
Boris Johnson accused of ‘shocking disrespect’ over party comments | Covid inquiry | The Guardian​
Johnson now admits to the COVID parties but says they were right to take place
In regards to the Rwanda plan, it spectacularly displays how unfit Sunak and the cabinet are to run the country. An utter inability to recognise how far off the path of relevance they've become. The Rwanda plan represents two strands of thinking. The first is that it's a PR only tool in response to a hole the party has been digging for years now. The Stop the Boats drive is merely the Tory hijacked version of the UKIP poster of a line of immigrants. The boats are a safety concern, the numbers of people aren't a major figure and most could easily be diverted through legal channels if they had a single plan for addressing legal immigration concerns. The second is that in the absence of any election position to stand on, they're gripping tightly to Rwanda in the hopes it will draw in voters like Brexit did. They've spent so much time and energy convincing the public that immigration is an issue that they've convinced themselves of it too. In reality it's hard to imagine much of the public gives two hoots about Rwanda.
I think this is where Braverman etc have misjudged the situation too. You have this noisy sizeable chunk of the party that are hard right, Brexiteer Little Englanders and the leadership are constantly trying to keep them on side. Braverman seems to think she can appeal to them and then once Sunak is out of the picture leverage that appeal to lead the Tories as a new hard lined hard right political force. But that will never happen.
When you take the Tories during their popular peaks they're typically as a Centre Right presence. The UK public is clearly right leaning but they're not hard right. The party is fundamentally a Remainer party which is why they campaigned on that basis and then found themselves paralysed by the referendum result, faced with carrying out a result they didn't agree with and knew would hurt them. After years tied in knots over it you end up with this perfect storm of the public just being exhausted with it which is why Get Brexit Done resonated, It wasn't about immigration despite how much UKIP focused on it or the ERG/Johnson used it as a beating stick. The 52% Leave result wasn't 52% voting solely to Stop the Boats. Immigration was a minority concern from Day Zero. Between Corbyn's popularity collapse, Johnson's razzle dazzle and the promise of drawing a line under the Brexit stagnation you end up with the 2019 GE result. But because of the attack lines, that immigration focus and the efforts to appeal to harder right voters to finally throttle UKIP the Tories ended up with an influx of hard right elected members. This is why the Tories can't get along, it's like there are two parties inside one.
Braverman's miscalculation is that in any scenario that 2019 influx are toast next year. The Red Wall was always doomed because that one off lightning rod of Brexit is gone and you can't manufacture that again. When those MP's find themselves turfed out the numbers won't add up for her and she'll find herself hugely marginalised and considered irrelevant. The mindset of the party is so shot that they'll spend years in fighting and turfing through party leaders looking for a magic bullet. But I'd say that if you're an ambitious relatively young centre right Tory candidate then it would be wise to start considering your moves because once the next couple of years are out of the way I imagine it's a reinvention from that Cameronesque position that we'll see emerge and that the next time the Tories are in power we won't see any of this immigration focus, and that they'll also be pro-closer to the EU.
Rumbles are that there's a chance that the Tories are so fundamentally moronic that they might be gearing up to challenge Sunak's leadership and trigger a new leadership contest due to the party turning on itself again over the Rwanda plan. The plan has been revealed to have already doubled in cost, paying out £290m despite not a single flight taking off.
Boris Johnson accused of ‘shocking disrespect’ over party comments | Covid inquiry | The Guardian​
Johnson now admits to the COVID parties but says they were right to take place
In regards to the Rwanda plan, it spectacularly displays how unfit Sunak and the cabinet are to run the country. An utter inability to recognise how far off the path of relevance they've become. The Rwanda plan represents two strands of thinking. The first is that it's a PR only tool in response to a hole the party has been digging for years now. The Stop the Boats drive is merely the Tory hijacked version of the UKIP poster of a line of immigrants. The boats are a safety concern, the numbers of people aren't a major figure and most could easily be diverted through legal channels if they had a single plan for addressing legal immigration concerns. The second is that in the absence of any election position to stand on, they're gripping tightly to Rwanda in the hopes it will draw in voters like Brexit did. They've spent so much time and energy convincing the public that immigration is an issue that they've convinced themselves of it too. In reality it's hard to imagine much of the public gives two hoots about Rwanda.
I think this is where Braverman etc have misjudged the situation too. You have this noisy sizeable chunk of the party that are hard right, Brexiteer Little Englanders and the leadership are constantly trying to keep them on side. Braverman seems to think she can appeal to them and then once Sunak is out of the picture leverage that appeal to lead the Tories as a new hard lined hard right political force. But that will never happen.
When you take the Tories during their popular peaks they're typically as a Centre Right presence. The UK public is clearly right leaning but they're not hard right. The party is fundamentally a Remainer party which is why they campaigned on that basis and then found themselves paralysed by the referendum result, faced with carrying out a result they didn't agree with and knew would hurt them. After years tied in knots over it you end up with this perfect storm of the public just being exhausted with it which is why Get Brexit Done resonated, It wasn't about immigration despite how much UKIP focused on it or the ERG/Johnson used it as a beating stick. The 52% Leave result wasn't 52% voting solely to Stop the Boats. Immigration was a minority concern from Day Zero. Between Corbyn's popularity collapse, Johnson's razzle dazzle and the promise of drawing a line under the Brexit stagnation you end up with the 2019 GE result. But because of the attack lines, that immigration focus and the efforts to appeal to harder right voters to finally throttle UKIP the Tories ended up with an influx of hard right elected members. This is why the Tories can't get along, it's like there are two parties inside one.
Braverman's miscalculation is that in any scenario that 2019 influx are toast next year. The Red Wall was always doomed because that one off lightning rod of Brexit is gone and you can't manufacture that again. When those MP's find themselves turfed out the numbers won't add up for her and she'll find herself hugely marginalised and considered irrelevant. The mindset of the party is so shot that they'll spend years in fighting and turfing through party leaders looking for a magic bullet. But I'd say that if you're an ambitious relatively young centre right Tory candidate then it would be wise to start considering your moves because once the next couple of years are out of the way I imagine it's a reinvention from that Cameronesque position that we'll see emerge and that the next time the Tories are in power we won't see any of this immigration focus, and that they'll also be pro-closer to the EU.
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