Xbox Series S/X: Thread 05

[hudson]

I think it would have been a great idea in 2020 for this gen, or even sometime in the wake of it. Come the arrival of the next gen I think it'll be too little too late. The novelty of the concept will be worn, the Switch 2 will have already stolen the limelight and narrowed the power gap. MS will have started releasing titles on that system too whilst the old advantage of brand power over Deck etc has been completely and utterly squandered by MS now. They very much feel and sound like a company where their hardware, software, finance etc departments have all just stopped talking to one another and are following different plans.

Department 1 "I've pencilled in a meeting for Starfield 2"
Depratment 2 "Today we a meeting with Nintendo to talk about releasing Halo on NES"
Deplartnent 3 "Phil! Don't forget your 2pm with Dominic Diamond regarding GameMaster 360 show for Kinect"
Daplagmont 4 "Please join me in welcoming Hideous ColdMedina to Xbox. Of course, known for hit spy stealth games"
Deaofsmfvnrv

[Lebowski]

XBox digest:

Rewards got worse again (several times I think, I haven't done these for a while).
Some Xbox exclusives will come to PS5 at some point.
Think that's it.

Add in an 8th, way MS rewards has got worse.

Microsoft reward redemptions now coming in super slow, it used to be instant if you requested a voucher, I've had one sat on processing for 2 days now

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.polygon.com/24108670/xbox-epic-games-store-phil-spencer-interview

Perhaps one of the most glaring stares down the Xbox hardware gun barrel

Spencer envisages allowing multiple store fronts onto Xbox consoles, essentially making the platform a low cost PC

[hudson]

That would actually be a killer move. Become a Steam box.

[fishbowlhead]

https://www.polygon.com/24108670/xbo...ncer-interview
Perhaps one of the most glaring stares down the Xbox hardware gun barrel

Spencer envisages allowing multiple store fronts onto Xbox consoles, essentially making the platform a low cost PC

Talk about identity crisis and no f*****g clue whatsoever on where to take Xbox next that will actually have a semblance of success.

The brand will be dead and buried in 5 years if they carry on like this.

[hudson]

Consoles do seem to be a dying breed. I grew up on consoles. Granted PCs werent exactly the gaming beasts they are today, but when I look around at my kids and what my kids are watching on YouTube, I am starting to see consoles not be on the Christmas/Birthday list.

Last xmas, my 10 years got a gaming PC, my oldest, wanted my old PC (which we buffed a bit). They watch their fave steamers playing on PC. Glowing LEDs and shiz. Maybe we are heading towards a Steam/Epic Games world sooner than we think?

I don't want consoles to die out. I like not having to mess about with PCs (Although, I used to), but being a working dad of 3, I just dont have the time.

[nonny]

That would actually be a killer move. Become a Steam box.

Honestly... I would be up for this. Steam box as a concept didn't work because SteamOS didn't exist and the whole thing was thrown together and clunky.

If Xbox is making a handheld (the other rumour that won't die) and want that to be successful I would argue they need to allow it to not just be a locked console experience but offer the ability to install your own OS if you want... every other PC handheld allows this.

So if they're going to allow the handheld to act like a PC (as an option to the consumer) then why not the console as well?

It's actually not the craziest idea when you get down into the weeds. Whether it happens remains to be seen though because it may need collaboration with Valve or Epic.

[hudson]

Agreed. A consolized PC. A mid-gen refresh would come in the form of slot out and slot in components. Ability to play Steam content and GP. I really don't know how possible this is. How long a box could actually last. It kinda makes sense though.

[nonny]

Agreed. A consolized PC. A mid-gen refresh would come in the form of slot out and slot in components. Ability to play Steam content and GP. I really don't know how possible this is. How long a box could actually last. It kinda makes sense though.

I don't know if they even need to componentise the build at all. I still see this as a pure console they can run a PC OS if you choose to gain more functionality from it.

One interesting thing is I got a survey from Xbox last week which was all about the Xbox app and specifically the PC experience... likes abd dislikes. Maybe it is related to what they do next in that space where the OS is concerned.

Of course Microsoft makes Windows and PC hardware already. Wouldn't take a massive leap to move the OS slightly further to the right than usual.

Even now on current consoles to can run in dev mode, attach keyboard and mouse, run browser apps for an office like experience.

Even if Xbox opened it up by making their own PC laincher for other stores it would work. Which brings me to other semi-related news:

https://www.ign.com/articles/playstation-pc-games-launcher

The whole console space is changing...

[Neon Ignition]

In many ways a small form open ended Xbox mini-PC pitched as a console makes a lot of sense.
I'm incredibly doubtful though that one of those ways includes 'commercial'.

It would be fascinating, unique and interesting to see, as well as likely the definitive end of Xbox consoles forever. It would be dramatic - like the console equivalent of seppuku

[nonny]

In many ways a small form open ended Xbox mini-PC pitched as a console makes a lot of sense.
I'm incredibly doubtful though that one of those ways includes 'commercial'.

It would be fascinating, unique and interesting to see, as well as likely the definitive end of Xbox consoles forever. It would be dramatic - like the console equivalent of seppuku

I feel the home console market is essentially in free fall anyway and it's very possible the next generation could be the last. Nintendo have found their niche but both Sony and Xbox seem to be scrambling to find out how they can make high end software development profitable.

I think it just feels more significant for Xbox because of their place in the market, but it seems no-one is really immune to the market forces.

Thinking about this over night there is also a very real possibility that a decision like this would essentially end the console war, or at least shift the focus of the market so much it becomes irrelevant. It would also potentially force Sony to re-evaluate it's own PC strategies if now suddenly it's titles can play on Xbox machines.

I don't really see it as a brand crisis or anything like that. It really is more about predicting where the market is heading and positioning what your product does to be aligned to what the consumer wants.

Similar to Hudson, no-one in my family wants a console... My daughter wants a tablet or a laptop to play Minecraft and Roblox. My teenage cousins all play on PC now. Some of them have a Switch but it's a rare thing.

Gen Z don't see it the way we do...

[fishbowlhead]

I feel the home console market is essentially in free fall anyway and it's very possible the next generation could be the last. Nintendo have found their niche but both Sony and Xbox seem to be scrambling to find out how they can make high end software development profitable.

I think it just feels more significant for Xbox because of their place in the market, but it seems no-one is really immune to the market forces.

Thinking about this over night there is also a very real possibility that a decision like this would essentially end the console war, or at least shift the focus of the market so much it becomes irrelevant. It would also potentially force Sony to re-evaluate it's own PC strategies if now suddenly it's titles can play on Xbox machines.

I don't really see it as a brand crisis or anything like that. It really is more about predicting where the market is heading and positioning what your product does to be aligned to what the consumer wants.

Similar to Hudson, no-one in my family wants a console... My daughter wants a tablet or a laptop to play Minecraft and Roblox. My teenage cousins all play on PC now. Some of them have a Switch but it's a rare thing.

Gen Z don't see it the way we do...

Sony & Nintendo are profitable (they have to be), MS are struggling to make profits because their not making enough games that sell consoles, not sure why this has turned into “consoles are teh doomed” when in reality it’s only MS struggling, because again, their not making anything that people really need to play on that box.

They have also been giving away any games that COULD generate decent profits on gamepass.

People gaming gamepass so their not paying full price.

Massive brand identity crisis.

Poor indecisive leadership.

Total lack of generation preparations for software.

Wasting massive time and effort on projects like the OneX when they should be focusing on games.

We can go on and on here, but the main culprit recently is gamepass.

[Neon Ignition]

To me, I feel like the home market is fine. The main areas of concern have revolved around a growing perception that the big three are bordering on finding it unsustainable but really most of this is born of Microsofts very public comments and movements as they line up their own exit from it. The trouble with MS though is that they entered the market with a very clear objective, to explode it open and by far be the top company in the market using the weight of their money and influence. It's epically failed as a project to them over the past twenty years and now that the penny has dropped they're clearly trying to pivot to a more sustainable model.

Nintendo and Sony are in completely different positions, both utterly dominate proceedings and MS's movements will only compound their positions.

Last gen combined console sales were around 178.5m, this gen they're currently around 210m as things stand.

I know there are those who are quick to forget that with Switch 2 Nintendo isn't actually launching late, they instead launched the Switch 1 very early to make up for the WiiU's collapse. Even if you entertain those who take the position that Switch isn't part of this gen it then means:

Last gen combined console sales were around 314m and this gen they're currently around 71m. But in this scenario last gen is still selling as the most successful generation ever released and this current generation still has at least six years of consoles sales ahead and a Nintendo entry yet to launch.

With console sales the narrative too easily moves to doom mongering for the industry because it's become too entrenched in the idea that Sony dictates the viability of the market. PS4 was a huge hit but not to PS2 levels, must be a decline. Yet their weakest hour was with the PS3 and these stories didn't persist. That was due to it also being MS's most succesful generation and yet if you combine PS3 and X360 sales you only just get above PS2 sales. Not enough weight goes into how much of the market sways to Nintendo, too much bought into the idea that the company operates in total isolation from the other two.

Which is when we hit the real culprit - obsession with endless growth. MS can't grow Xbox so they've hit the panic button. Sony has realised that PlayStation at the top of its game has a roof so they've hit the panic button too which then makes the media and enthusiasts go all 'sky is falling'. Even if 300m consoles are sold in a generation, that number contains many who own multiple machines, the real number of individual owners might be closer to 200m which is an astronomically small percentage of the global population. How to get beyond that figure is the real nut they're trying to crack and the secret might be the thing they don't want to admit to - that that just might be the upper limit.

This is where Nintendo comes in. Despite how things looked coming off the WiiU they have a profitable console that doesn't emphasise power and it's been an incredibly smart move. We can list off the number of things the Switch doesn't do that it should but ultimately it does the basic core functionality very well and has reaped the rewards for it. They consistently release games that range from small scale to AAA but have restrained budgets. They and the incredibly prolongued cross-generation cycle on other systems this gen have exposed the real truth of the market that MS and Sony are still too slow to pick up on - that the market as a whole doesn't give much of a **** about $300m budgeted mega projects. Helldivers 2, Palworld, Super Mario Wonder have outsold so many large budget titles in the same window. The entire situation is why the idea of a PS5 Pro is so laughable. Nintendo has sought growth and is doing it successfully by leveraging its properties outside of just game unit sales.

It's why MS and Sony are wrong when they talk about the difficulties of game development for first party games and exclusives - it's less the market and more how poorly managed they're making things. I can only imagine how much money Sony has ****ed away on licensing, failed live service game development etc and being complacent the same way they've been before when on top and the same as Nintendo can get and has then lost out the following generation. You have to keep the pipeline flowing. MS's management is even more misguided, talking about the need for content for GP and then like a wise sage on AAA dev costs. What makes AAA dev costs hard to absorb faster than the reasons they've given? Spending years and years burning money on mismanagement. Perfect Dark 3, Everwild, Halo: Battle Royale, South of Midnight, Hellblade II, Fable IV, State of Decay 3 etc - crack the **** on MS, this stuff won't help you when third party if you can't get projects done on time and on budget.

The layoffs have been a big part of the perception that things are going from bad to worse but I suspect that's a less murky thing than it seems. Whilst undoubtedly awful for those affected several of the layoff drives have come from things like the buyouts MS made or the incompetence of Embracer and were always coming. During the high sales run all the companmies where quick to champion during the pandemic they bumped themselves up too due to working from home etc and staff cuts on that front where always coming too. Buried in the detail there's also a lot of links to cuts for teams where the project being worked on is completed such as MS cutting down the Halo Infinite and Starfield teams so there's often some through line that makes a level of sense in the context of how the gaming industry works and is managed. But combined all this makes for great media doom posting fodder whilst overlooking the sales figures.



But, in terms of considering MS making Xbox a literal multi-store PC in a box. The market realities are that the console would still be a console, bound by the cost realities. MS talks about the cost risks of making consoles but the cold fact of day is that stores aren't going to readily sell consoles they can't sell games etc for. MS isn't going to subsidise a console where all of the games sales go to other companies store fronts, Valve isn't going give a chunk of its cut to MS for having Steam on Xbox. Even if MS put out such a device, it would be a console where cheaper game prices than Xbox Store would be immediately available, piracy would be insanely easy etc and it still wouldn't make a dent on pushing Game Pass - in fact I'd argue it would actively harm that service and likely lead to its accelerated demise. There's a reason it hasn't taken off on PC. The crux is that MS wants large scale profit growth for the Xbox division and it's possible, but realisitically it won't happen as long as the Xbox console exists. Until they exit hardware they have an anchor dragging behind them because it has near zero appeal anymore and they aren't invested in making it work anymore. There's a reason other third parties don't have consoles or hugely successful store fronts of their own.


Side note - All businesses would find life infinitely better as well if they started ignoring social media, PR etc metrics based around Gen X, Z, Millennials etc. It's all meaningless BS that corresponds to nothing and has zero impact on buying habits and how societies develop. Generations aren't that short, defined or frankly that different from one another. Another area that Nintendo seems to have gathered a much stronger grasp of than its rivals.

[Neon Ignition]

Sony & Nintendo are profitable (they have to be), MS are struggling to make profits because their not making enough games that sell consoles, not sure why this has turned into “consoles are teh doomed” when in reality it’s only MS struggling, because again, their not making anything that people really need to play on that box.

They have also been giving away any games the COULD generate decent profits on gamepass.

People gaming gamepass so their not paying full price.

Massive brand identity crisis.

Poor indecisive leadership.

Total lack of generation preparations for software.

Wasting massive time and effort on projects like the OneX when they should be focusing on games.

We can go on and on here, but the main culprit recently is gamepass.

Much more concise than my post

[Lebowski]

https://www.eurogamer.net/majority-of-xbox-games-will-come-to-ps5-at-some-point-its-claimed

Xbox flatlining in Europe, Devs asking why they even bothered going to all the trouble of creating two versions of their game (X and S versions) as the returns were so poor, retailers cutting back shelf space for the consoles. I wonder if all the talk of turning the Xbox into a steam box or supporting other store fronts is a way of shoring up support for future releases by sidestepping the issue of having to create Xbox ports. I really can't see this working well, it takes away the ease of use of the console for a start, every time you buy a game on steam are you going to have to check how well it runs if at all.