Europe III: April F-EU-Ls

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/11/brexit-deal-latest-theresa-may-eu-juncker-tells-may-deal-could-be-clarified-but-no-room-whatsoever-for-renegotiation-politics-live

Juncker must be so fed up, May dashes to the EU27 to try and salvage something in her efforts to rig the outcome of the delayed vote but he has explained to her for the hundredth time that they will happily help to clarify aspects of the agreement but they will not renegotiate any of it.

Meanwhile four parties have united to pressure Labour and Corbyn into triggering a vote of no confidence in May. It's unlikely they'll do it however.

[Dogg Thang]

they will not renegotiate any of it.

Here's the thing - I have a strong suspicion that this isn't true. Now I don't think you'll really get a deal that is much better (I was surprised so much was worked out after so long of nothing happening) and you certainly won't get much by way of a preferential deal or one that is better than just not doing Brexit but a No Deal Brexit is not good for Europe. The border havoc alone will impact Ireland significantly but it's going to hit trading all over Europe. I think Europe as a whole can absorb that impact more than the UK alone but it is not in the interests of Europe for you to go through with a No Deal Brexit.

I'm kind of curious now to see what last minute concessions the EU might make, if any.

[Neon Ignition]

I imagine they're secretly open to the concept of renegotiating something at the last minute but I'd imagine the concern for them is whether it's worth playing that hand if the UK political parties are consistently lined up to reject everything that's tabled. If No Deal looks likely but through incompetence they might opt to keep talks closed to save face in case they every face the situation again in future, hoping calling the bluff leads to Article 50 being revoked instead, as it should be.

[Dogg Thang]

Yes, I think you could be right. Especially your point about everything being rejected. It does them no good to offer you more only to have it rejected all over again. It just sets precedents with nothing to gain. It really does feel like the UK government and its lack of ability to get anyone to agree to what even is Brexit is just destructive energy now. And when I look at the likes of Farage or Steve Bannon or whoever, I feel like it's exactly what they want. People like that seem to thrive on breaking things, not actually making them better or even different. If the goal here was destabilisation (and I think for many it was), they've got what they wanted.

[Brad]

Is it as simple as this (lol @ simple) pseudocode:

Boolean IsActionAcceptable(action)
If result of action == hard border in Ireland
return false;
Else
return true;
Endif

In which case the only values for action that would return true are accept_deal and cancel_brexit. If parliament refuse to accept the deal that leaves only one acceptable value for action.

[Zaki]

char theresamaytwat1;

[Neon Ignition]

On Radio 2 they played a clip from parliament where May says to MP's 'do you want Brexit?' and there's a pause then then mass 'no's'

It's a bit jokey but that's the crux of the issue. The vast majority don't want it to happen so it's been frustrated to the point of chaos. May's so focused on 'delivering Brexit' that she's deep into the point where she needs to take on a duty of care to the country she's supposed to be looking out for. 3 and a half months to deadline and we already know she's wasting another month of that.

[Dogg Thang]

I feel like I'm giving her way too much credit but... could this be the aim? May was against Brexit, wasn't she? She only really got to where she is on the premise that she would make Brexit happen. So if she then pulled out of Brexit or in some way reversed it, she would have gone against that mandate and get torn apart. But if she pushes it as far it can go until she is simply left with no choice but to pull out of Brexit, she can claim she did her best to make it happen but it was clear that the will of the government or the people or whoever was that this was not the right call to make. Like I've always said, I don't believe there is a good Brexit. As incompetent as she might be, I don't think anyone else could have got a better result. So to be able to come out of it avoiding Brexit while still claiming that she did her best could be the closest thing to a win anyone in this scenario could get.

I'm overthinking this...

[Neon Ignition]

It could be and if it is and it works I'd tip my hat to her, that'd be one hell of a calculated balance against her being outed before pulling it off.

[CMcK]

I discussed a similar take with a mate the other day. She’s going to push to the end, No Brexit, resign a hero then publish her memoirs and live off the profits from the book, movie deal etc.

[MartyG]

I'm overthinking this...

Yes you are - May's voting record will show you she isn't very pro EU and she's always been very anti-immigration.

She's kicking the can down the road to try and force her bill through - MPs don't want a no deal brexit (most of them don't support leave personally), but leaving it till the last minute to vote on it means either supporting it or crashing out with no deal.

There simply wouldn't be enough time to table any other alternative motions by Parliament at that point.

It's a massively dangerous strategy though.

[Paulos G]

This is one of my favourite Brexit takes so far:

https://mobile.twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1072222230791229440

[charlesr]

Lol thread name

[charlesr]

BD thread name I mean

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/eu-steps-up-plans-for-no-deal-brexit-as-merkel-rebuffs-may

Speculation mounts that the 48 letter threshold for a vote of no confidence in May has now been met.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/brexit-study-finds-significant-decrease-in-diehard-leave-backers

A new poll has suggested that hardcore Brexit supporters are now starting to fall sharply in number ls due to the crisis May is making. Not surprising, many will still want leave but to them it's the equivalent of walking through a door. To May leave is like leaving a car... that's travelling at 120mph and via the front windscreen.