United Kingdom V: Son of a beach

[Asura]

I still don't understand the Japan case. The oldest, most densely populated country has had so little of it.

Japan's had a huge spike in "pneumonia". That's it.

[kryss]

All this **** going on and I STILL see people just coughing without trying to block it - even in the supermarket this morning. Granted, they were homeless, didn't pay for what they took and ran into the bathroom to do meth but, BUT!

I still don't understand the Japan case. The oldest, most densely populated country has had so little of it.

Amazing that when you don't test for it, people don't have it.

My in-law's coworker had it. The coworker called everywhere they could think of to ask if they could get tested but their call just got passed around to different places. I think Abe took a page out of the Trump playbook.

If you can't get tested for it, you obviously don't have it.

[Shoju]

Gupta's numbers don't stack up, it was based on early data from Italy https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1216 - and as said, the vast majority disagree. Antibody testing in other parts of the world also show that her numbers are massively overestimated too, such as New York where the testing shows around 15% https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/n...s-test-ny.html

There's also no solid proof that this was circulating in Nov/Dec, this is yet more speculation from Gupta to back up her theory, although there's a very small spike in deaths in that period (200-300 higher than the five-year average), but we're currently seeing around that daily. It was higher than 2018-2019, but 2018 was a particularly low year: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...017to2018final - https://conservativewoman.co.uk/covi...ality-figures/

Most scientists agree that we are a long, long way from herd immunity https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-immunity.html

Like I said I'm not saying her figures are accurate but that the number who have been infected so far could be far higher than expected. What is the current estimate of how many have been infected so far and how did they come to that conclusion?
It's not just her specifically that speculates that it was in Europe before we thought.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/spate-of-possible-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light

Has there been an update to any of this?

Are the anitbody tests reliable? Is there a significant difference in the amount of antibodies in the severely sick compared to those who are asymptomatic and will they show up in testing? What percentage of the population in NY was tested and how did they model for the whole population from that? There's a lot I'm interested to know.

[MartyG]

Like I said I'm not saying her figures are accurate but that the number who have been infected so far could be far higher than expected. What is the current estimate of how many have been infected so far and how did they come to that conclusion?.

In the UK it's based on sampling and derived from there, obviously there are inaccuracies because of that, but it's estimated that around 7% of the UK population has had the virus, this is ONS's figures as of June 2020 https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...lot/12june2020

The larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error, but to quote the ONS on antibody testing from the linked article above

As of 24 May 2020, 6.78% (95% confidence interval: 5.21% to 8.64%) of individuals from whom blood samples were taken tested positive for antibodies to the coronavirus (COVID-19). This is based on blood test results from 885 individuals since the start of the study on 26 April 2020.

[Shoju]

Amazing that when you don't test for it, people don't have it.

My in-law's coworker had it. The coworker called everywhere they could think of to ask if they could get tested but their call just got passed around to different places. I think Abe took a page out of the Trump playbook.

If you can't get tested for it, you obviously don't have it.

That was my thought too however when I tried looking into it the articles I saw quite reasonably said a country like Japan would not be able to cover up a very large number of deaths or an overwhelmed health system. That's something that might've been expected with their population.

[kryss]

The use of masks as commonplace really helped. The Japan Times also makes a good point with this article.
Also this one about the already existing network of contact tracers.
The UK is just too stubborn to think about others when we can think of ourselves instead.

Remember that it only counts as a C19 death if C19 is the cause of death on the certificate.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/25/major-incident-declared-as-people-flock-to-england-south-coast

Government says the public needs to stick to the distancing rules or they will close all beaches after yesterdays overflow of sunbathers. All that makes perfect sense - so again - stick to the rules (that they've made ineffective or removed) or they'll impose a lockdown (that they removed)

[Anpanman]

The use of masks as commonplace really helped. The Japan Times also makes a good point with this article.
Also this one about the already existing network of contact tracers.
The UK is just too stubborn to think about others when we can think of ourselves instead.

Remember that it only counts as a C19 death if C19 is the cause of death on the certificate.

Wife is obviously following things and has mentioned peer-pressure, the contact tracing and masks. Also the Japanese don't talk as much on public transport so cutting down on breath and vapour.
She comes home every day from being on the bus from work ranting about tosspots who are just gassing on phones or to each other instead of shutting their gobs.
Was even worse before masks became compulsory but even now not everyone wears them, the other night she told me she was the only passenger on the bus with one.

[fallenangle]

The views on mask wearing I've expressed here before are informed by experts not just anecdotal as most of the pro-lobby seem to be relying on.

Without meaning to apply racial cliches which probably are not universal aren't the Japanese renowned for their fastidious personal hygiene. They actually wash their hands after using the toilet. I'd be putting their lower COVID 19 figures down to that not mask wearing. They bow rather than shake hands and that is done at a distance too. There's none of this modern huggy-kissy-kissy European greeting stuff even with close relatives which somehow has become the norm in the UK in the last 25 years too.

Only speculating but the evidence does fit - the Italians had some of the worse infection figures early on and they epitomize that huggy-kissy-kissy culture. In social situations, which I've experienced in a small way, its practically mandatory to greet everyone in such a fashion. If that culture did not accelerate the disease's transmission I'd be very surprised.

Judging by my weekly trips to the supermarket 66% of people in the UK are not wearing masks. That includes supermarket staff. Of those wearing masks if I don't see some obvious compromises its unusual. For instance I had a checkout girl wearing a mask but when the supervisor came over she pulled it down with her rubber gloved hand which must have had contamination from hundreds of customer/item/till/cash/surface interactions.

There were also two irate customers complaining about social distancing matters to a supervisor when two adjacent till lanes were opened one of them with a mask around their neck and both having these conversations at well under 2m.

As someone who delights in irony and absurdities like that it is a priceless experience people watching at this time.

[Anpanman]

As someone who delights in irony and absurdities like that it is a priceless experience people watching at this time.

It is, people going shopping with rubber/nitrile gloves on then getting in the car and driving home whilst wearing the same gloves which no doubt could be covered with the virus.

It would be safer to stick your hand in a bucket of the virus in the supermarket then wash your hands thoroughly before getting in the car.

[Zaki]

Saw the same **** from my window. Ice cream van.

Woman serving was wearing gloves. Serves customer , takes money, gives change, serves next customer, takes money, gives change, drives off....wearing the same pair of gloves. No words...

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/27/ministers-ignored-police-chiefs-warning-over-risks-of-lifting-lockdown-in-england

Before the public went bananas at the beach the Police warned Ministers that lifting lockdown measures was madness

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jun/27/itll-take-four-years-for-nhs-to-recover-from-covid-19-health-chiefs-warn

NHS Health Chiefs have warned that it will take around four years to recover from the viruses effects on the health service

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/27/new-covid-19-clusters-across-world-spark-fear-of-second-wave

And fresh clusters of outbreaks around the world suggest the first crests of the Second Wave are beginning

[kryss]

Yeah the gloves thing is nonsense. Using hand sanitiser between customers is probably better. Places here are asking people to use touchless payment methods whenever possible, which is what I try to do for the most part anyway.

[MENTION=5818]fallenangle[/MENTION] if you want to cite a source, I'd love to read it, otherwise shhh. Generally everyone on here has some sense and wants to protect themselves and their families. If you go about among the general populace talking about mask usage like you do, you become part of the problem.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/coronavirus-leicester-england-local-lockdown

Leicester looks to be the first city to be looking to deploy utterly worthless local lockdown measures. The UK is way, way too small for that schtick to work

[Dogg Thang]

Could work in a country that wasn’t bombarded with mixed messages and where people would follow the rules rather than getting in a car to test their eyes. But yeah, as things are right now it’s hard to see a localised lockdown sticking.