CoronaWatch 2019 - 2024

[JazzFunk]

Better safe than sorry is the way.

[Dogg Thang]

Better safe than sorry is the way.

Most definitely.

[MartyG]

There are reports that US is talking about giving between $500 billion and $1 tirillion as payments in an "economic coronavirus package" to its citizens. Sounds like a lot until you realise there are 326 million of them. If this lasts for 12 months, that's $58 a week per person.

[gIzzE]

There are reports that US is talking about giving between $500 billion and $1 tirillion as payments in an "economic coronavirus package" to its citizens. Sounds like a lot until you realise there are 326 million of them. If this lasts for 12 months, that's $58 a week per person.

Trump is sending out cheques direct to people, starting with $1000 and can be up to $6000 depending on circumstances.
He said that if more is needed next month, it will be available.

[Dogg Thang]

That sounds suspiciously like socialism to me.

[prinnysquad]

School closures are going to place a massive strain on infrastructure. This is a huge call.

[gIzzE]

School closures are going to place a massive strain on infrastructure. This is a huge call.

This is a three step process to get us all thinking lockdown is positive.

Announce Londoners to stay in yesterday.

Announce schools to close on Friday today.

Tomorrow announce lockdown for Friday.
I bet they announce lockdown for 14 days, knowing full well on day 13 they will announce another 14 days.



I think it is needed now.
I have been well against it, but the country is collapsing anyway, so may as well lock down for 30 days and see what happens.

[fishbowlhead]

30 days? Most businesses will be bankrupt for a start.

[cutmymilk]

This is a beta test for the future. Distance learning, universal income, working from home. Loads of IT solutions being developed in record time...this might actually be looked back on as an event of great change that saved the climate and made people more efficient.

[prinnysquad]

I doubt the wisdom of closing the schools.

However, that is an opinion based only on my own limited knowledge and understanding, and flimsy application of logic.

[JazzFunk]

Just had a quick trip to grab some milk. All the big Morrisons had were some 1L cartons of expensive low-cholesterol stuff at £1.75. Got one, a bird in the hand and all that. Went to Lidl and all they had was a single, heavily battered two-pinter of skimmed. Got that, too. And about six decent packs of peanuts (don't forget Ford Prefect's advice).

Oh, and some more AA batteries, 36 to be precise. There were craploads left, I think I must be the only person not using play n' charge kits, ha.

Went to KFC after, got a 6-piece bucket, there was only one customer eating in, this old bloke. Guy behind till was cool, said I didn't want two portions of chips, just gravy, so he gave me two large tubs of gravy instead, which was nice, didn't have to pay extra.

Was speaking to the guy in Lidl, he was basically saying how everyone's getting in very early doors and swiping all the milk and bread. It's a pity we're reduced to this. People deffo looking a tad more haunted at the mo, too.

Thapocalypse

[JazzFunk]

Anyway, been sensing for ages this is proper dodgy. Dodgy as faaaaaark. Dodgy dodgy dodgy.

Always trust the gut.

[gIzzE]

I have been saying the same, didn't bother posting on here as many seem to not understand that the damage to the economy will kill far more people than the virus will.
We will cause more harm trying to stop this virus than the virus will itself.
But say that and I am a nasty right wing capitalist tory **** who cares more about the economy than people.




We are going to see unemployment rates like nothing we have ever experienced before.

I'm in retail, also have a footwear agency, so sell shoes around the UK. I have been speaking to retailers all over the UK for the last 2 weeks.
The reality is most have 2-6 weeks left before they go bust. Doesn't matter if they turn over £200k a year or £20m a year, their business is being ****ed already.
I can count on one hand those who could write off this season and get through.

Many were 40-50% down two weeks ago, 50-60% down last week and are around 70-90% down already this week and getting worse.

Retail, hospitality and events account for 11,000,000 employees in the UK out of the private sector workforce of 24,000,000, with another 3,500,000 involved indirectly, whether that is in real estate, construction, finance, insurance blah, blah blah.

The budget offered nothing.
The BOE rate reduction didn't even make a dent.

We work in seasons, spring summer from March through to August and then autumn winter from September through to Feb. Over that six months I need to cover my overheads and make sure all is paid so we get deliveries for next the season.
The reality for me is with mortgage, facility fees, wages, rates, staff wages, electricity, epos, bank charges, card charges, paye, nic, refuse collection, phone and fibre and the £118,000 I owe suppliers, oh and let's not forgot the £30k for VAT I will need to find around £188,000. That is £7200 a week to break even, that is if me and my wife want to work 6 days a week for fun. If we want to take a wage we need to take considerably more. Take another £40k and we can take roughly £10k each.

So, me saving £160 a week on rates is nice, but makes no real dent.

The .5% interest rate drop?
Well, being business rates we don't get anywhere near what personal mortgages offer. 4.9% is what we are paying, on the £223k we owe now that is just under £900 a month in interest. Compare that with my mortgage, I owe £213k so very similar, I'm ay .25% above base so paying £88 a month in interest.
I also have to pay off capital, so my mortgage is just under £1700 a month. The 0.5% drop has saved me..........£22 a week.
Seriously, it makes absolutely **** all difference.

This could not have happened at a worse time.
As we come out of the season, we end up using our overdraft, get all the suppliers paid so we get the new product in. We then use February and March to try and get the overdraft paid down, then April and May to build up some money in the bank ready to pay for the March invoices that are now due and the cycle continues.
This has come as we are all bouncing off overdrafts, even the cash rich ones are sitting with very little in the account right now.

Many are still recovering from 2009, and those who started since then are more often than not paying over inflated rents and rates that can't be covered with the margins we work with.

This is the reality for just about everyone I speak to.


The knock on effect of this will be huge too, not only will people in retail, pubs, caffes, restaurants, be lucky to keep a job over the next few months, but so many others as well. Taxi drivers, train drivers, bus drivers won't be needed, what about those working in software? Who buys your product? Will they still be there to buy it? Probably not.

Then we have entertainment industry, hit as hard if not harder than all the above. My daughters husband is in the theatre game, he was stating a new 18 month contract on April 6th, it was cancelled last week. My daughter is in the same game and hers was cancelled this week.
They have just started a new 12 month rental in Greenwich, now both unemployed within the space of a week.
They are saying everyone they know has been losing their job this week. Not good.

Next we will have all the construction guys, traders will have to put down tools.

Then it will be those who work for digital companies, people won't be wanting Spotify, Netflix, Sky, and facebook will lose revenue from lack of advertising.

I know three people who have pulled all their money out of the bank this week, they are talking between £80 - 150k.
Too many do this and word gets out and the high street banks will wobble.

In public sector and think you're safe? Think again.
Maybe if you are police or NHS, but there are probably 3,000,000 paper pushers, they will go.
Streamlining Trump would be proud of.

Hence keeping the schools open for as long as possible. However, now they are closing we need to close and try and get this over with. As I said, for most businesses we are in as good as lockdown already.

I had my worst day in 17 years yesterday. I was up against £1700 from last year, we did £61. That is the reality.
We have done £1256 this week, need to do around £9000.
Speaking to others I am doing better than most!



I have not buried my head in the sand though.



As a business I have done the following.
Arranged for staff to have reduced hours. (not nice, but the have all understood)
Directors have taken a 4 month wage break. (really not nice, but we can just about afford to with other measures taken.)
3 month mortgage holiday and moved to interest only for 6 months. Reduced rate by 1.2% too saving £400 a month.
Obviously no rates saving me £900 a month.
Spoke to Funding Circle and have a break on our funding of 8 weeks. £1600 a month saving.
Gas payments down to £40 a month with a review in 3 months.
Electricity we've agreed to have a 2 month holiday and then spread payments owed over 12 months, or renegotiate in two months if needed.
Going to have a 2 month holiday on insurance and pay remainder at end. (usually pay 10 payments anyway so have can push them to end.)

Personally.
Interest only on mortgage, also 0.25% above base and only got £213k remaining so only £88 now! But that saves £1100 a month.
Electricity changed DD to £40 a month with a guarantee to pay £400 at a later date.
Gas changed DD to £22 a month with a guarantee to pay £200 at a later date.
Sky down to HD and Multi room for £25.
Tidal cancelled.
Spotify down to basic.
Nintendo sub cancelled.
PS+ cancelled.
Spoke to Hitachi Capital about a holiday on a loan, they are getting back to me tomorrow.

With that lot I am now prepared for a lockdown. I reckon with the £25k grant from the government we would be fine for 30-45 days. Maybe a smidge longer.

My concern is, as I said, that we work in seasons, so we have till August to sell it all and get suppliers paid.
However, if we do come out of a lock down in 30 days, people may be are itching to get out, if they are they will spend I reckon, and also we have the fact many won't be going away, they will be here over the summer and that will help a lot.


I think the sooner we lock down the better now, for business anyway, it is as good as locked down business wise anyway.

Lock it down. 30 days. Hope for everyone's sake that we then come out of it the other end with the virus subsiding like it has elsewhere.
Also, we will all be sort of on hold finance wise, not just across the UK but also Europe and the rest of the world, this buys some slack with debtors.
Drag it out much longer and it will do far more long term damage. Many now need the ability to say "we had no choice, we were told to" to who they owe.


Anyway, sorry for the ramble, but please don't think my comment about a lockdown was flippant.

[Asura]

Well there we have it. As I implied earlier, on my walk to/from work, I go past a McD's which seems to be a mecca for kids aged 12-16. God I hope it's deserted, but something tells me it won't be.

[JazzFunk]

It might be. My KFC only had one diner!

PS nice post gizz