United Kingdom VII: Taking Pride in Your Success

[Dogg Thang]

Where are you getting those figures from?

[Neon Ignition]

It's just the rough UK population, first dose vaccinations are at 88.7% of the adult population so between younger people and those who've already had COVID I just assumed a rough 10% potentially unvaccinated figure. It's in no way accurate as vaccinated people can still catch it, suffer from it etc but in terms of what I assume will be considered herd immunity it'll be the point where daily cases are sustainably low no matter how opened up things are.

Presumably everything rests on Septembers schools reopening and if there's still enough room for it to cause a surge upward. If it doesn't (or does and later subsides) that will be the final nail in the coffin from the Government on considering COVID a concern moving forward.

[Dogg Thang]

Yeah, I guess I'm hoping for more solid info that takes into account how contagious the current strains are versus the effectiveness of the vaccines along with rollout times and so on. With both vaccinated and unvaccinated people circulating the virus while slowly trying to reach that 90%, I'm now wondering if meaningful herd immunity is even possible with what we're dealing with here.

[Neon Ignition]

There's a definite risk in time that people won't re-vaccinate as effectively drops, I guess there's a real reliance on trying to normalise the illness rather than mitigate it

[Dogg Thang]

Even without the drop off in effectiveness (which remains to be seen but I guess nobody has ever suggested we'd get herd immunity to the flu and that's closer here than something like measles), isn't there a point at which the virus variant is contagious enough and the effectiveness of the vaccines low enough (to stop it, not just mitigate serious symptoms) that herd immunity isn't an achievable goal? I don't know the answer but I'm guessing the current circumstances have to at least mean it may not be a possibility.

[fishbowlhead]

The virus is changing at such a rate that it looks like the vaccine will be all but ineffective by next year. Pretty worrying stuff and the gov have obviously given up at this point and is hoping for a high chunk of us to simply die off, hence no lock down, restrictions, masks no longer mandatory Etc etc.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2021/08/new-covid-variants-epsilon-lambda-may-be-resistant-to-vaccines-early-lab-studies-show.html

Early studies are hinting that the Lambda and Epsilon variants may be more vaccine resistant.

[Asura]

The virus is changing at such a rate that it looks like the vaccine will be all but ineffective by next year. Pretty worrying stuff and the gov have obviously given up at this point and is hoping for a high chunk of us to simply die off, hence no lock down, restrictions, masks no longer mandatory Etc etc.

Realistically though, is there an alternative? I mean I thought they lifted the restrictions too soon too, but unless we had global cooperation, is there any way to beat this that isn't "we all remain in lockdown for a decade"?

Not that I'm not terrified of getting COVID; I absolutely am. I suffer from respiratory distress from time-to-time and I'm overweight. I've been really dilligent throughout the last 18 months with masking up, working from home, getting my shopping delivered... But I'm also not keen on this going on another 2-3 years or more; when does it end?

[Dogg Thang]

If only you were an island nation with control of your borders so you could deal with it in your own country without needing full global cooperation.

[Asura]

If only you were an island nation with control of your borders so you could deal with it in your own country without needing full global cooperation.

Like New Zealand, and at the start of all this, like many, I suggested the government should've acted in a similar way.

Unfortunately they didn't and it's too late now, so I'm talking about the future.

[Neon Ignition]

Whilst I get the boat we're in, in that we have a vaccine and there's a sense of the end being in sight and people are keen to get to it but my issue is that many have been keen for that end since not long after the beginning which is partly why the last 18 months management of the crisis has been such a disaster.

It's felt a little like todays generation being planted in World War II and within 3 months of the war wanting to surrender to the Germans because all that bunker sheltering and the effect on the economy through defence spending is a bit of an inconvenience. If the pandemic can be considered to broadly be under control and managed in a way that people can broadly go about their business again without thinking about it much by December 2022 that will be an utterly astounding achievement. These things can very easily last years, decades even and we've been beyond fortunate that the virus isn't something with a much stronger spread or death rate. Without doubt this pandemic should sow fear because when a worse one comes the incompetence of our leaders has shown that a multitude of millions beyond this one will be dead.

At this point I'm back to thinking there won't be a fourth lockdown. Freedom Day was a flop more so because the restrictions that remained or guidance was all but worthless, nothing of meaning changed which is broadly a guide as to how things are now pretty much is 'back to normal'. Bar some pre-booking in places, a suggestion people should use masks in some places etc there's nothing much off limit bar international travel which despite what the Tories say has always depending on how other nations are dealing with things. That side of things will take till late 2022/2023 to get settled but otherwise for day to day living it's done, there's just no specific 'It's Over' moment to mark it.

[Dogg Thang]

They didn’t due to pretty much the same line of thinking. While NZ had months of zero cases, most people in our countries were spouting the “well what can we do?” line. It’s a virus. It needs somewhere to spread. Honestly we never even had “lockdown”. Not properly. Precisely because of that way of thinking, we extended it and extended it because we have never once actually done it properly. So yes there is an alternative. There are many alternatives and they all start with acknowledging that we know how viruses work and we could hugely impact the spread in the matter of a few weeks if we actually did lock down the country properly.

[Asura]

They didn’t due to pretty much the same line of thinking. While NZ had months of zero cases, most people in our countries were spouting the “well what can we do?” line. It’s a virus. It needs somewhere to spread. Honestly we never even had “lockdown”. Not properly. Precisely because of that way of thinking, we extended it and extended it because we have never once actually done it properly. So yes there is an alternative. There are many alternatives and they all start with acknowledging that we know how viruses work and we could hugely impact the spread in the matter of a few weeks if we actually did lock down the country properly.

Yeah, but that's a solution in dreamland where everyone is reasonable and half the country aren't *****. Given the number of people I've seen in these anti-vax campaigns and Facebook making billions off making everyone stupider, I'm talking about a solution that is actually practical.

The government could never have had a "proper" lockdown. Decades of poor education and other problems sowed those seeds. There would've been a revolution. A ***** revolution. (that would've been its name)

Bear in mind I'm not happy about that.

[Dogg Thang]

Okay well I guess we differ there in that I feel a huge level of force and regulation would at least help that but, yeah, we’re living with dumbasses. Personally I’d rather try to stop a virus run rampant than just shrug my shoulders and go along with the dumbasses.

[Neon Ignition]

A virologist best described it as everyone has been fixated on how many lockdowns we shoudl have to control the virus but the real answer is that you only have a lockdown due to the failure to control it. Every lockdown is a requirement directly due to our Government's utter failure the manage the situation.

Personally, I think one lockdown in a pandemic is a pretty unavoidable requirement in practical terms. The first and last step in managing the situation is border control. Immediately no-one comes in and no-one goes out. Trade routes continue but strict measures with an emphasis on biohazard containment are in place. In effect you're sealing the nation off. This isn't easy for most but as an island nation it's inexcusable for the UK not to have taken this approach. This stops infection coming in and any existing cases are small in number and easily dealt with to get back to or close to zero.

From that point onward you're in the NZ scenario. To the citizens within the UK they would be able to literally live life as normal in every way bar international travel throughout the pandemic due to containment till vaccination is complete. Yes the travel industry is knackered but the cold fact is it is anyway, you're saving countless others that have been decimated for that sacrifice.

Natural reluctance to impose anything that will negatively impact the economy or peoples freedoms means every time things would probably be so slow to move that a lockdown ended being needed but a second, third etc... all due to government failure. We could have stamped COVID down a year ago.