UFOs exist, or do they?

[Dogg Thang]

I’ve read about this before. It’s a big, big question. It only holds relevance, I suppose, if we presume that not one sighting, or landing, or anything else related to the ETH of UFOs, is genuine. And therefore, we come back full circle to what I said earlier. We can’t conclusively dismiss the ETH for every sighting. Neither can even one be confirmed. Instead we’re left hanging in a fuzzy grey middle ground containing intriguing anomalies, such as the Trans-en-Provence landing. To claim certainty one way or another is hubristic.

You seem to make out like these are equal chances because neither can be yet proven. They’re not. In the absence of proof to the contrary, we have to assume they are not alien in origin. But you can’t say for certain that they aren’t alien, right? Sure, but you also can’t say for certain that most of the population hasn’t been taken over by mind-controlling Tourette’s-ridden penguins. That doesn’t make it in any way likely. It’s not in any way a grey middle ground. We’re all the way over at one side with one tiny outside chance that these might actually be alien in origin.

[MartyG]

So not 100%, then. Vast collection of statements referring to the limitations of current understanding and scenario-building aside, it’s a logical fallacy to state otherwise. It simply cannot be a concrete certainty. Glad there’s agreement.

As DT said - it's a fallacy to think these probabilities are in any way even slightly equally weighted. So no - I don't agree with your assessment.

[Neon Ignition]

I tell you though, for it to be worth aliens visiting Earth they would need to have the kind of travel where they can fold space so side-step the insane journey times. The level of technological advancement required just so they can sit miles in the air for a few seconds to tease pilots then sod off home would more suggest they're alien children doing the interstellar equivalent of cow tipping.

[MartyG]

If indeed they could warp spacetime, this would in all likelihood cause spacetime ripples able to be detected especially if active astronomically close to Earth, given they've been looking for them.

So it's either cowtipping or experimental millitary aircraft being tested - I know where my Occam's Razor falls.

[QualityChimp]

Personally, I think the chances of there being aliens out in space seem incredibly high. I don’t believe they are here.

The chances are a million-to-one.

[MartyG]

The chances are a million-to-one.

I think you're confused; that's the chances of anything coming from Mars.

[Brad]

The chances are a million-to-one.

They said

[QualityChimp]

Who would have believed?!

[prinnysquad]

I never said they are equally weighted. That’s a straw man argument. I’ve only ever said that a 0.00001% chance isn’t an impossibility. Therefore, a definitive no isn’t appropriate.

[endo]

But still they come!

[Golgo]

Personally I hold to the Jungian hypothesis that they are a mass hallucination of re-worked mythic archetypes from the collective unconscious, erupting as psychic correctives at times of social imbalance/anxiety (hence the upsurge of sightings during the Cold War). And being psychically true they are - in Jung's reckoning - as true as any mere physical fact.

[MartyG]

I never said they are equally weighted. That’s a straw man argument. I’ve only ever said that a 0.00001% chance isn’t an impossibility. Therefore, a definitive no isn’t appropriate.

Then we are in agreement then, it's massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively unlikely to be aliens and massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively, massively likely to be optical illusion / atmospheric / military aircraft.

[prinnysquad]

Yep. But ‘no’ to aliens can’t be said definitively.

[Dogg Thang]

I never said they are equally weighted.

(you called it a middle ground)

But glad to have your clarification.

[prinnysquad]

Just a turn of phrase really, mate. It’s not equidistant (between Norwich and London).