The War in Ukraine

[wakka]

If he uses nukes, whatever to imports, exports, the economy, and everything else. The world is ****ed. Completely ****ed. The best I can hope for is that living in London I'm right in the vaporisation zone so I don't experience any of it.

[Dogg Thang]

Again, I'd wonder who benefits? If things are pushed to the edge by every country and we're in full-on WW3 scenario, maybe at that point but that's when there is precious little to gain anyway. But now? No outcome of Putin nuking anywhere would seem to benefit him unless I'm missing something (which is of course very possible).

I feel like this was more just what it was - a push into Ukraine. And he expected it to be quick and, because the rest of the world is rattled and doesn't want to cause a fuss after everything going on over the last few years and the divisions in some countries even regarding Russia, he would have expected to get away with it. If it was a no fuss takeover of Ukraine. Just like Crimea, which he totally got away with in 2014 or whenever it was. But what he found was a fight and things got messy.

I think he definitely wants to throw his weight around, definitely wants territories (and I don't think he'd stop with the Ukraine), but I don't see him wanting a full scale war. I suspect he thought this would be easy.

[wakka]

No one benefits from nuclear war, which is probably the main reason we haven't experienced one. I mean launching nukes is literally the most insane thing you can do. Kim Jong Un's always brandishing them, yet if he ever launched one his entire country would be vaporised.

But someone COULD launch one. And right now the most likely person in the world to do that is Putin. It doesn't feel impossible that he could do it. His actions don't seem to be governed entirely by rationality. The invasion of Ukraine appears emotionally driven to a large extent. And a nuclear launch would be emotionally driven.

Imagine getting the whole of western Europe burnt down to a nuclear husk because of Liz ****ing Truss. That would just be classic.

EDIT: Anyway, I don't think it will happen.

Probably.

I hope.

[Dogg Thang]

Yeah, I don't know if I agree with that. As others have said over the last few pages, I have not felt like this is a thing that just happened. I think is a step in a process that has been moving for a decade or more. I don't think it's a whim or an emotional response, as weird as his statements have been. But I fully acknowledge that I can't possibly know. It's speculation on my part.

[MartyG]

A nuclear war benefits no one - but that assumption is based on rational thinking. Invading another country isn't rational.

The real danger is things becoming a game of nuclear chicken through rhetoric and it all being accidentally started through miscommunication.

[Dogg Thang]

Invading another country isn't rational.

You're in the United Kingdom. Home of the mighty British Empire! Invader supreme. But all that invading would have been useless had they just levelled each country as they went or brought about their own destruction along with the rest of the world.

History tells us there is stuff to be gained by invading countries. It is yet to be seen what can be gained by nuking them into oblivion. Hoping I don't have to find out.

[wakka]

Yeah, I don't know if I agree with that. As others have said over the last few pages, I have not felt like this is a thing that just happened. I think is a step in a process that has been moving for a decade or more. I don't think it's a whim or an emotional response, as weird as his statements have been. But I fully acknowledge that I can't possibly know. It's speculation on my part.

To be honest, my knowledge of international politics is poor, exceptionally poor. I know so little about this that it's hardly worth my sharing an opinion (not that it will stop me).

I just feel that while Putin's definitely had a pretty consistent hard on for disrupting Western democracy, sabre rattling, and expanding Russia for the last 20 years, pissing off the entire world and screwing your own country's economy by invading Ukraine doesn't really seem like the most logical move. Launching nukes doesn't seem like the most logical move. Ergo, he could launch nukes.

As I say. I know very little. But that's just my feeling. Probably complete bull**** to be honest.

[MartyG]

You're in the United Kingdom. Home of the mighty British Empire! Invader supreme.

Perhaps I should have been more precise; invading Ukraine and by doing so tanking your own country isn't rational.

[Dogg Thang]

Definitely the last part I agree with. But like I said, I think he expected to be much easier.

I feel like he has ambitions to restore the territories that were previously taken by the USSR, many of which were independent states before WW2 and they were let keep after the war regardless. So I'd put pretty much any of these countries on his hitlist: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milita...e_Soviet_Union

But yeah, like Wakka, I do need to confess to only having a certain level of knowledge of the current situation.

[MartyG]

I'd recommend Dan Snow's History Hit podcast: https://shows.acast.com/dansnowshist...-quick-history

[Dogg Thang]

Cool. I’ll give it a listen. Thanks!

[wakka]

I hope you're right Dogg and it's better to remain positive. And thanks Marty for the link.

[teddymeow]

I am actually terrified that this is just going to spiral and we're witnessing the beginning of the end.

[fishbowlhead]

Just to put Nukes in perspective, after the US dropped the second one even Stalin ground to a halt on his race to Japan, dead in his tracks and turned the army around, and he was worse than Hitler.

Has Putin gone that far off the deep end? If that was the case the Kremlin would remove him from power or at the very least lock him out of the them entirely like what happened to Trump.

[Asura]

Did you see the old guy punch an armed Russian soldier? The soldier fires shots and the ground and the old guy doesn't even flinch.

I've seen so many of these.

Who would've known Ukraine harboured such iron?