The War in Ukraine

[wakka]

None except their bananas will be much straighter.

[Cassius_Smoke]

I would guess he's thinking long term. If he manages to kick the bastards out, the war will have cost a fair deal. In the EU he can borrow that money and stop his country sliding into ruin.

[Dogg Thang]

If Ukraine joins the EU, what difference will that make given the support already being offered?

I don't quite know the answer to this but I would have thought that Russia invading and occupying an EU country would mean the EU would be forced to take much more active measures. Definitely with some of the countries that I would think could be next if Russia did by some miracle manage to hold the Ukraine, I think things would really kick off if an invaded country was an EU country.

[Protocol Penguin]

I would guess he's thinking long term. If he manages to kick the bastards out, the war will have cost a fair deal. In the EU he can borrow that money and stop his country sliding into ruin.

Being integrated into the European market and having representation in the Europe’s governing bodies would be a benefit, as would showing the world that their country’s part of democratic Europe rather than being a mere Russian satellite state.

There’s nothing that shows that Ukraine would be given instant membership, BTW. But it is telling that the presidents of 8 former soviet bloc/Warsaw pact states have all signed a letter supporting Ukraine’s membership. They know the history of Russia’s aggression.

[MartyG]

I don't quite know the answer to this but I would have thought that Russia invading and occupying an EU country would mean the EU would be forced to take much more active measures. Definitely with some of the countries that I would think could be next if Russia did by some miracle manage to hold the Ukraine, I think things would really kick off if an invaded country was an EU country.

The EU is a trading body it has nothing to do with defense. That's NATO's job where Article 5 is the key one about collective defense. Most of the EU is in NATO, but not all. Invading a NATO country would be a WWIII trigger.

[Dogg Thang]

The EU is a trading body it has nothing to do with defense.

Mostly true but not quite. The EU has shared foreign policy interests that, yes, are mostly geared around that trading body but has been building shared defence policies including the Common Security and Defence Policy. This came up strongly with the constitution because there was a clash here in Ireland due to our policy of neutrality. The EU as a body has shared defence interests and foreign policies. While it hasn’t really been put to the test, a full invasion of an EU country would certainly demand a response from other EU nations.

[MartyG]

It's a big difference between that and having an "EU Army" - it really should not be even part of EU's charter. There's no doubt the actions of Putin are indefensible, but it would be unnecessarily provocative to Russia. More than that, it really isn't needed given NATO exists.

All the bolded countries are NATO members - and unfortunately for Ukraine, we must at all costs not be ones who trigger another world war and wait and hope Putin doesn't cross that very deep red line. Putin knows NATO will engage if he crosses it because they will have no choice, the alternative doesn't bear thinking about.

Austria,
Belgium,
Bulgaria,
Croatia,
Republic of Cyprus,
Czech Republic,
Denmark,
Estonia,
Finland,
France,
Germany,
Greece,
Hungary,
Ireland,
Italy,
Latvia,
Lithuania,
Luxembourg,
Malta,
Netherlands,
Poland,
Portugal,
Romania,
Slovakia,
Slovenia,
Spain,
Sweden.

[Dogg Thang]

It's a big difference between that and having an "EU Army" - it really should not be even part of EU's charter.

I never mentioned an EU Army. And whether it should or shouldn't be in the EU's charter or whether it needs to exist, it is and it does. And as a result, and as a result of that trading body and shared interests, I'm simply saying that an invasion of an EU country would put more pressure on other EU countries to get very active than an invasion of a non-EU country. That's all.

And yes, I absolutely agree on the NATO countries. And there are several countries on that list that I feel will be rightly wondering if they are next.

[Neon Ignition]

Then even if Ukraine joins from a purely trade POV that's likely going to provoke Putin more yes? He's going to flip at them become more tied to the west and if he takes over then having a period bound by EU rules

[Dogg Thang]

Then even if Ukraine joins from a purely trade POV that's likely going to provoke Putin more yes? He's going to flip at them become more tied to the west and if he takes over then having a period bound by EU rules

He certainly wouldn't be happy about it. But I still feel like Putin expected this to be easier. And joining the EU or indeed almost any union of sorts in the west would be a sign to him that this is going to get harder. So I'm not certain it would provoke him, as much as he would hate it. Even though Crimea is nothing compared to the whole of Ukraine, I really feel he was hoping for the same outcome - have the place in a few days, run a dodgy vote and, lo and behold, the whole of Ukraine votes to be part of Russia again and it's job done. That didn't happen but I'm not convinced he'll dig himself too deep here. Not yet.

[Asura]

that's likely going to provoke Putin

At this point though, should we maybe just stamp on the egg-shells?

We've done the softly-softly thing since the Cold War and now Putin's invading sovereign nations just because he wants to. Surely this shows that this "appeasement"-based approach is ultimately not going to work?

[Dogg Thang]

We've done the softly-softly thing since the Cold War and now Putin's invading sovereign nations just because he wants to. Surely this shows that this "appeasement"-based approach is ultimately not going to work?

Well, I don't know (I feel like I need to add this disclaimer to all my posts here!) but I feel like best case scenario is that Ukraine makes this too difficult for him. End it there without having to bring the rest of the world into an escalating war. But there is a question over what would happen if he took Ukraine. I don't believe for a second that would be the end of it. So where is the line drawn?

[Asura]

End it there without having to bring the rest of the world into an escalating war. But there is a question over what would happen if he took Ukraine. I don't believe for a second that would be the end of it. So where is the line drawn?

I get concerned because this is really similar to how the Second World War started. Countries invading other nations to which they believed they had a claim because, in the past, they owned those territories - and notably, those territories having industrial resources and facilities that the home nation needed. People accepted it because the people in those places spoke the language of the home nation and identified culturally with that nation. People were concerned about a large war.

Then, by the time that country's government decided to tear up the map and just conquer another country without any of these mitigating factors, it was too late to do anything about it and the whole of Europe was at war.

I'm aware there are major geopolitical differences between the world of 2022 and the 1930s, and the above is quite reductive; but I'm worried we might look back in this in 2025 and really wish we'd done something more.

Yet despite all that, I don't believe we should go to war with Russia. So I've no idea what we should actually do.

[Dogg Thang]

I get concerned because this is really similar to how the Second World War started.

100 percent. I share this. Due to an interest in family history in WW2 (my family fled Estonia during the war after the Soviets invaded for the 2nd time and the Estonians have done an incredible amount of work researching and documenting the history) I have read a lot about Eastern Europe leading to and during the war and I agree with everything you wrote. It's precarious and worrying. My hope is that the Russians just don't have the resources to pull this off and that other countries don't decide to use this instability to their advantage. The Soviets carved up Europe in WW2 but they couldn't have done it without the Nazis doing the same and I do think the opposite is true too. It was a larger mess. I do think this situation is different in many ways and I cling to the hope that this won't escalate, largely because Russia is facing a bigger challenge than they expected.

[MartyG]

I'd think that had Russia been able to walk in and take Ukraine in a couple of days, it would have emboldened Putin, but we're still on a dark timeline here and it makes me feel sick in my stomach. This is our Kobayashi Maru moment and we don't have Kirk available to cheat.