UK XI: Please Sir... May I Have Some More?

[Neon Ignition]

Jeremy Corbyn re-elected in Islington North after expulsion from Labour | General election 2024 | The Guardian

Scottish Labour ‘confident of majority’ as SNP faces Westminster wipeout | Scottish National party (SNP) | The Guardian

The 2024 election’s ‘Portillo moments’: which ‘Big Beasts’ have lost their seats? | General election 2024 | The Guardian
Peny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Grant Shapps, Alex Chalk, Simon Hart, Robert Buckland and...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-668788738f08b8c654ee57d9#block-668788738f08b8c654ee57d9

Lizz Truss have all lost their seats

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-668777bc8f08115751de377f#block-668777bc8f08115751de377f

Tories have been entirely wiped out of Wales

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-668773438f08b8c654ee5711#block-668773438f08b8c654ee5711

Jeremy Hunt retains his seat by just 900 votes

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-668772ac8f08b8c654ee570b#block-668772ac8f08b8c654ee570b

Sunak retains his seat

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-66876fa38f08115751de373a#block-66876fa38f08115751de373a

Jacob Rees-Mogg loses his seat

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-66876f0b8f08a83a9aecc7a7#block-66876f0b8f08a83a9aecc7a7

Kemi Badenoch holds her seat

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-668767db8f08b8c654ee56bf#block-668767db8f08b8c654ee56bf

The SNP are cut down hard

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?page=with:block-668764a48f08115751de36de#block-668764a48f08115751de36de

Cruella holds her seat

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-66875a618f08115751de3671#block-66875a618f08115751de3671

Farage wins Clacton's seat

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/jul/04/general-election-2024-uk-live-labour-tories-starmer-sunak-results-exit-poll?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-66874e4a8f08b8c654ee55d5#block-66874e4a8f08b8c654ee55d5

George Galloway is out just as fast as he arrived

UK general election 2024: live results in full as Labour takes power | General election 2024 | The Guardian
At the moment of posting Labour stands at 407 seats won with the Tories in second place with 112. Lib Dems are in third place with 68 and the SNP collapsed on just 8. Despite the noise that the Tories and Farage are making, Reform currently stand on just 4 seats matching the Green Party.

[Neon Ignition]

My town swung back to Labour with Reform in a comfortable second place because it's so deeply racist

[Brad]

Our 3 local constituencies of Cheltenham, Tewkesbury and Gloucester went from Con to Lib, Lib and Lab so that's good. Truss losing was the icing on the cake for me. Our kids might have a future now. Tories must never be allowed back, disappointed that they're the opposition.

[MartyG]

Still waiting for results in mine, and it's a major Tory seat, so given the gains Reform have made I'm really hoping it hasn't swung to them :/

Delicious that Mogg, Barker and Truss lost their seats, shame Braverman didn't as if the members have the final say (as is current) I think it's likely she'll be the next leader.

I mentioned before that would you still want PR with Reform vote share, well given the size of their gains, it's probably better that Starmer does consider PR - he won't due to the size of his majority, of course, but the gains of Reform should they continue, means that with FPTP, a Reform government next GE isn't out of the realms of possibility. PR would prevent that (along with most other parties too).

[Golgo]

I thought Farage was a shoe-in in Clacton, disappointing but predictable, and I'm probably more aggrieved that that arch-grifter Lee Anderson has survived in his new Reform guise. The people of Ashfield - "the capital of common sense", as he called it - need to be dragged out into the streets and shown the lash.

[Asura]

My biggest worry about this are how over 3 million voted for Reform, comparable to half of the votes for the Tories - yet the Tories get >100 seats while Reform got a handful.

I don't want Reform to have any seats. But in practicality, I've always believed this is a big part of what caused Brexit. In 2015, UKIP got over 12% of the votes, and I think only got 1 seat? Sure, we'd all love to just throw the those voters over the garden wall and march off to do more important things, but you can't just not listen to people in a democratic system. This time around, it's ~15% of the voters, and again, that's a worry. I'm concerned about what that means for the future.

However, I'm starting a petition to reclassify the population of Richmond & Northallerton as no longer part of The North.

[Neon Ignition]

If Starmer has any sense he'll at least mull the PR subject over the coming term, as 2019 proved they shouldn't at all assume that majority will last next time around in any form. Unless they manage to make immigration leave the news cycle I'm not anticipating a Labour win next time around.

[Neon Ignition]

My biggest worry about this are how over 3 million voted for Reform, comparable to half of the votes for the Tories - yet the Tories get >100 seats while Reform got a handful.

I don't want Reform to have any seats. But in practicality, I've always believed this is a big part of what caused Brexit. In 2015, UKIP got over 12% of the votes, and I think only got 1 seat? Sure, we'd all love to just throw the those voters over the garden wall and march off to do more important things, but you can't just not listen to people in a democratic system. This time around, it's ~15% of the voters, and again, that's a worry. I'm concerned about what that means for the future.

However, I'm starting a petition to reclassify the population of Richmond & Northallerton as no longer part of The North.

It's the immigration issue again. Farage has run three parties under the same basic issue. Most of those voting likely know little to nothing about it, it's just rank racism and poor knowledge for many and if immigration numbers ever do come down it'll suck the air out of the room for Reform.

[Golgo]

Interesting that of the Tory 'big beasts' the more moderate ones fell (Rees-Mogg notwithstanding) and the Reform-a-like racists and extremists like Patel, Badenoch and Braverman survived.

[Dogg Thang]

That shouldn't be a surprise. Anger is a powerful motivator. From what I can gather, more people voting Labour seems more about anger towards the Tories than any great love for Labour. Many Tories who survive seem to be ones who themselves use anger as a galvanising force. We're living in a time where centrism has little power of its own, only turning out to be useful when anger towards the current extreme hits a tipping point.

[MartyG]

My seat remained Tory, it wasn't even close, despite a drop of 20% (Reform in third behind Labour), even if Lab or LibDems had dropped out for tactical voting, Tories would still have carried it - turn out was only very slightly down by 1% (67%).

Just looking at the vote share, the biggest losers are Reform - they took 14.3% of the vote, so under PR would have 93 seats to Labour's 220. Tories would be at 154 and LibDems at 79.

You need 326 seats for a majority, so there wouldn't be a clean way forward under PR to form a majority government under PR in this GE.

[Lebowski]

Interesting that of the Tory 'big beasts' the more moderate ones fell (Rees-Mogg notwithstanding) and the Reform-a-like racists and extremists like Patel, Badenoch and Braverman survived.

It really does feel like reform have swooped in and stolen Braverman's lunch though she was voted back in, but it's her disaster of an immigration policy that's given so many votes and so much momentum to reform. The Rwanda policy will be scrapped now, no more people will be sent and at a cost of 750 million for 7 deportations It's going to go down in history as a massive waste of government funds and a massive failure.

One pattern I'm seeing which is heartening is that in a lot of seats that even if you add the votes for Reform and the Tories together the Labour vote is still higher, so even if reform wasn't a thing the results wouldn't of gone to the right. Reform is a worry though, but it's interesting to see the right getting some competition for a change as they have had it to themselves for far to long. On the right in past elections you have had the left split between, Labour, Libdem, green and the SNP, while the tor

[wakka]

A satisfying (if predictable) result.

My constituency of Peckham is a very safe Labour seat, but while they won comfortably, their share actually dropped - with Greens rocketing from 5% in 2019 to 20% this time around.

[MartyG]

One pattern I'm seeing which is heartening is that in a lot of seats that even if you add the votes for Reform and the Tories together the Labour vote is still higher, so even if reform wasn't a thing the results wouldn't of gone to the right. Reform is a worry though, but it's interesting to see the right getting some competition for a change as they have had it to themselves for far to long. On the right in past elections you have had the left split between, Labour, Libdem, green and the SNP, while the tor

This is not correct. In terms of seats, yes, but that's because of the way that FPTP distorts things, it doesn't take much of a shift in votes per seat for Reform to start making much bigger gains (which is the danger if this is more anti-Tory rather than pro-Labour come the next GE) in exactly the same way we're seeing Labour take a massive majority on a minority vote share, where PR would even this out due to their actual real vote share.

In terms of vote share:
Tory + Reform > Labour
23.7 + 14.3 > 33.8%
38% > 33.8%

Seats under PR
Tory + Reform > Labour
154 + 93 > 220
247 > 220

The country is more weighted towards the right based on that.

If you weighted the left with the LibDems, then this would shift 247 vs 299, add the Green vote share (44 seats) and you're at 343 - so to form a majority government you'd need Labour, LibDem and Green to form a coalition under PR.

To look at it this way, the distortion of FPTP seats vs PR seats.

FPTP | PR | Distortion (with two seats still to be declared at time of this)

Labour: 412 | 220 | 192 more than they should have
Conservative: 121 | 154 | 33 less than they should have
Reform: 4 | 93 | 89 seats less than they should have
LibDems: 71 | 79 | 8 seats less than they should have
Greens: 2 | 44 | 42 seats less than they should have

[Baseley09]

Glad for the change but tbh feels like a supply teacher is in charge with no plans for the day, could get bullied by a 7yr old.