MCD 2024: Box Office Bingo III

[QualityChimp]

It's pretty crazy what's going on here.
I saw a post on social media in refence to The Fall Guy hitting streaming this week, whilst still at the blimmin' cinema that said something like "How did we go from seeing a film within its theatrical run to 'If we don't see this on the first Thursday at the 7pm showing, we're going to miss out seeing it on the big screen.'"

Gutted what's going on with Furiosa, not just because I'm miles out, but you'd think moveigoers would be hyped for it, but I guess people are thinking they can stream films so much earlier these days.

Pleased I wasn't so far off the mark with KotPotApes and Ghostbusters.

[Neon Ignition]

It's a self-fulfilling problem. Company A releases it's new release which underperforms so they launch it on a streaming service early to keep the money coming in, this in turn perpetuates the perception of the consumer that Company A's next film will also launch on streaming in a matter of weeks. Company A releases its next release and then bemoans that it underperforms.

The thing is, I don't buy the go to argument that streaming is killing cinema. There are more and more box office flops and fewer hits but since the very immediate days of the pandemic we've seen several films release and hugely outperform expectations.

What I think is the going on is:

-Audiences are tired of long running franchises. They had 18-24 months locked in to watch all the Fast and Furious's, MCU films etc many times so when a new one releases they're already tired of it.
-I think this is backed up by what has been popular since. Top Gun, Avatar, Barbie, Mario etc aren't new properties but they were done well and don't come off the back of 21 sequels.
-All three made $$$ via POV and streaming but they didn't race to the services either, I don't think it actually makes much difference when something hits on demand


The biggest thing, and I'm not used to saying this about an exec from this studio, is what Sony's Exec said the other week - the big problem is the cinemas themselves. They are outright too expensive. Most people, especially post pandemic in a cost of living crisis, can't justify upward of £20 ticket prices. Cinemas used to offer reasonable entry prices and then try to milk you on the food etc, it wasn't great but it was optional and understood by the consumer that that was how they tried to make up cost. A family going to watch a film and it costing £40-£50 is incredibly poor value for money and if people are to go to the cinema then they will obviously start to be very selective.

It's why it wasn't surprising that the same weekend box office hits another major low it's reported that Deadpool 3 pre-sales are breaking records. Cinema no longer draws people in, it's individual films instead. Hollywood can't normalise people paying huge sums for films so it has to fall on driving ticket entry costs back down so that each visitor pays less but cinemas make more by volume.

I suspect Furiosa will get similar plaudits as Fury Road and do well at home but in the coming months there's Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4 and Deadpool 3 - anything else should probably start worrying now because that will be families budgets maxed out

[Neon Ignition]

ROUND FOUR - GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE
$375m - Beecee
$301m - Wheela
$240m - Lebowski
$201m - Quality Chimp
$200m - Current Global Earnings
$160m - Neon Ignition

Week Eleven and this week the film left many of the remaining screens it was running on leaving just those countries where it had released later left to carry the proton pack. The technical earning this week are $200.5m proving how close we are to that first ever bullseye guess. The film remains $4.5m ahead of Afterlife in like-for-like earnings with the overall gross of the film less than $4m out.





ROUND SIX - FURIOSA
$480m - Lebowski
$390m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$300m - Neon Ignition
$170m - Beecee
$114m - Current Global Earnings

Second week sees a reasonable hold taking the film into triple figures. Tracking has it earning half of Fury Roads total which would make its profitability a big question.




ROUND SEVEN - KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
$490m - Lebowski
$400m - Neon Ignition
$337m - Current Global Earnings
$310m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$220m - Beecee

We Dawn on QC taking another lead as the film wages War on the guess list and we see it Rise up the rankings.






ROUND NINE - INSIDE OUT 2
$1.0bn - Quality Chimp
$999m - Lebowski
$800m - Neon Ignition
$301m - Wheela
$120m - Beecee
$0m - Current Global Earnings

The next round is lined up, can Pixar score a major hit after a string of under performers?
And more importantly, can the emotions save Riley from another epic life experience such as the previous movie where she caught the bus for two stops?

[Neon Ignition]

ROUND FOUR - GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE
$375m - Beecee
$301m - Wheela
$240m - Lebowski
$201m - Quality Chimp
$201m - Current Global Earnings
$160m - Neon Ignition

Week Twelve with just one more left of tracking to go, the film hit QC's guess precisely with earnings still very small but still moving. The final week of tracking ahead will potentially see the film shift a small amount more thanks to this weekends Ghostbusters Day celebrations. The film stands $5m ahead of Afterlife but next week saw that films revision to its final tally with us unlikely to see a similar jump here.





ROUND SIX - FURIOSA
$480m - Lebowski
$390m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$300m - Neon Ignition
$170m - Beecee
$144m - Current Global Earnings

Third week and the film continues to slow too quickly meaning it will likely take a fortnight to squeeze past Beecee's guess




ROUND SEVEN - KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
$490m - Lebowski
$400m - Neon Ignition
$359m - Current Global Earnings
$310m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$220m - Beecee

The film nudges up and a point finally swings in my direction






ROUND NINE - INSIDE OUT 2
$1.0bn - Quality Chimp
$999m - Lebowski
$800m - Neon Ignition
$301m - Wheela
$120m - Beecee
$0m - Current Global Earnings

The film opens this week, currently it's projected to open with similar numbers to Dune: Part Two

[Neon Ignition]

ROUND FOUR - GHOSTBUSTERS: FROZEN EMPIRE
$375m - Beecee
$301m - Wheela
$240m - Lebowski
$201m - Quality Chimp
$201m - Current Global Earnings
$160m - Neon Ignition

The tip of the proton stream tickers ever so close to its target but just falls short. The film make a little under $0.2m this week meaning that short of a surprise bump from out of the other realm at some point in the future, the film has ended its run less than $3m short of the total Afterlife made. Prospects wise much will now rest on streaming, merchandising and the ability to balance budgets for a fifth entry. But here we stand in amazement as Quality Chimp scores the first ever Hole in One guess!





ROUND SIX - FURIOSA
$480m - Lebowski
$390m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$300m - Neon Ignition
$170m - Beecee
$160m - Current Global Earnings

Week four and the film is closing in on that first rung of the ladder, it's becoming increasing unlikely that Beecee will lose the point though.




ROUND SEVEN - KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
$490m - Lebowski
$400m - Neon Ignition
$374m - Current Global Earnings
$310m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$220m - Beecee

Steadily ticking along, we may be only a two or so weeks away from being able to call this one based on trajectory.






ROUND NINE - INSIDE OUT 2
$1.0bn - Quality Chimp
$999m - Lebowski
$800m - Neon Ignition
$301m - Wheela
$295m - Current Global Earnings
$120m - Beecee


Big number see the sequel streak past the first of our guesses and close in on the second, next week should see it tear further up the chart and Disney plans a 3 month cinema run for the film so a long haul track is likely here.

[Neon Ignition]

ROUND SIX - FURIOSA
$480m - Lebowski
$390m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$300m - Neon Ignition
$170m - Beecee
$168m - Current Global Earnings

Week five and its pace continues to slow



ROUND SEVEN - KINGDOM OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
$490m - Lebowski
$400m - Neon Ignition
$381m - Current Global Earnings
$310m - Quality Chimp
$301m - Wheela
$220m - Beecee

A week later and an $8m increase, nearly over for this round






ROUND NINE - INSIDE OUT 2
$1.0bn - Quality Chimp
$999m - Lebowski
$800m - Neon Ignition
$724m - Current Global Earnings
$301m - Wheela
$120m - Beecee


A huge jump and I'd be excited if it weren't so fast I'll be out the running by weekend

[QualityChimp]

Inside Out 2 is the most successful film of 2024 so far. With no real kid competition until Despicable Me 4, I reckon it might be the first film to break the billion. (crosses fingers)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhughes/2024/06/23/inside-out-2-becomes-top-movie-of-2024-with-725-million-worldwide/

But here we stand in amazement as Quality Chimp scores the first ever Hole in One guess!

Jealousy is such an ugly trait.

[Dogg Thang]

I'd be so bad at this. Honestly, I don't see it. I don't get why some films bombed and why Inside Out 2 is doing so great. Even similar Disney or Pixar films that have underperformed. I don't see why it's this one.

If ever I become an media investment guru, listen to nothing I say. NOTHING.

What is clear, however, is just how much of an all or nothing thing a cinema trip is now. It has been for some time but the fact that most films come to digital so quickly means that, unless a film is deemed an absolute instant must see, it won't get people out to the big screen. Family films slightly break that because a cinema trip out with the kids is an easy afternoon out so I feel like a film like Inside Out stands a greater chance of being a hit than something like Menace Grimoire 2 but, even then, it's clear that a lot of films in that space crash and burn too. It's tough out there for movies.

Unless they're all raking in huge money on streaming, which for some is actually possible. There may well be movies that just didn't quite make the "must see" list that people go for as soon as they hit digital and there is a chance that the margin is higher for those sales.

I should really know that stuff.

But I don't.

Anyway, I hope you'll all see my next film, Menace Grimoire 2, the anticipated sequel to the cult classic Menace Grimoire. Max Grimoire is back and he's more menacing than ever.

[Neon Ignition]

I'd be so bad at this. Honestly, I don't see it. I don't get why some films bombed and why Inside Out 2 is doing so great. Even similar Disney or Pixar films that have underperformed. I don't see why it's this one.

If ever I become an media investment guru, listen to nothing I say. NOTHING.

What is clear, however, is just how much of an all or nothing thing a cinema trip is now. It has been for some time but the fact that most films come to digital so quickly means that, unless a film is deemed an absolute instant must see, it won't get people out to the big screen. Family films slightly break that because a cinema trip out with the kids is an easy afternoon out so I feel like a film like Inside Out stands a greater chance of being a hit than something like Menace Grimoire 2 but, even then, it's clear that a lot of films in that space crash and burn too. It's tough out there for movies.

Unless they're all raking in huge money on streaming, which for some is actually possible. There may well be movies that just didn't quite make the "must see" list that people go for as soon as they hit digital and there is a chance that the margin is higher for those sales.

I should really know that stuff.

But I don't.

Anyway, I hope you'll all see my next film, Menace Grimoire 2, the anticipated sequel to the cult classic Menace Grimoire. Max Grimoire is back and he's more menacing than ever.

I think one of the execs of Sony nailed part of it, the business model and relationship between cinema and studio is broken. Cinemas charge too much, they were already climbing in cost but to rally after COVID they ramped things up to milk rare hits and have stayed at that price point. Cinema trips that cost in excess of £50 isn't seen as a viable option outside of rare occasions for most so they make more per ticket but lose more overall through business. The impact of streaming has heavily supported that dynamic, it being easy to wait sometimes just days till a film hits a service. Studios and Cinemas have wanted it both ways and with Inside Out 2 Disney have drawn the line in the sand that it won't hit streaming for at least 100 days so audiences firmly know that there's only one way to see it.

The other side of the coin is the studios contribution to the problem. Sony rarely has hits that make $1bn or anything even close so doesn't model its business around that, likewise they don't have a streaming service so build other revenue lines into their budgeting.

There's the very often cited rule that a film has to make 2.5x its budget to make a profit and to be honest I'm very sceptical of that rule. I imagine there are many cases where that is a solid rough estimate but if it were as widely applied as we're led to believe then most big budget films would have never been made. I see it as the market having expanded heavily into Cars territory. As one of Pixars weaker performing franchises questions often arose about why they kept making them and the answer was actually simple - the films didn't have to make that much or almost anything at all. They acted as adverts for merchandise. The first film made $462m off a $120m budget but by the time Cars 2 released it had generated $10bn in merchandising. Not many films are like this but it showcases just one of the ways films budgets are only a part of the puzzle with streaming revenue, licensing, home media sales etc all being a big part of the package.

Coming back to Sony, I've read a few articles about the death of Ghostbusters due to Frozen Empire matching Afterlife's box office on a $100m budget versus $75m but I think that's another case of misreading what Sony is doing. Pre-2016 reboot they set up Ghost Corps as a dedicated studio to oversee the brand, part of the $25m higher budget went on the cost of filming in New York but part also went on building a full scale permanent set replica of the firehouse in its own dedicated soundstage. Streaming profits and particularly merchandising are a huge part of the calculation because Sony isn't approaching greenlighting Ghostbusters, Bad Boys etc with an expectation that each entry should make wonga earnings, instead consistent repeat business is the approach. More studios need to think about building a loyal audience like they have to with TV rather than all or nothing mega-budget releases. That would then couple with Sony's desire to see cinemas lower their ticket prices and Disney reintroducing the idea of streaming not being an option for new films - trying to get more people back through the door.

A fortnight ago in the US Sony bought the cinema chain Alamo. They're now the first major studio to own a theatre chain since the 1940's and I'm curious if this is also part of the plan to influence competition in the market.

With Inside Out 2... I mean, I'm just putting it down to it being an under exposed Pixar IP getting a belated sequel and many were fans of the original so it's got the sweet spot. I've not felt compelled to see it myself because everyone says it's not quite as good as the first and for me the first was watchable but one of Pixars most by the numbers and deeply over thought films. Maybe it'll end up a surprise like Turning Red was, maybe it'll be more like mega-hit The Incredibles 2 which made $1.2bn but is now a film most forget exists because of its blandness.

Either way I'm guessing the lesson studios learn will be SEQUELS

[Dogg Thang]

Either way I'm guessing the lesson studios learn will be SEQUELS

Yep. And yet prior to 2015, Inside Out didn't exist. It was a rare beast even then - an original movie. Something will have to shift to create more sequels by making original movies to have sequels of... the structure of that sentence may not have made sense.

Cars is an easy example of licensing and toys paying the bills. The big Marvel, DC and Star Wars movies would be the same. There is an extent to which all they really have to do is boost the brand. That said, with the crazy budgets they pump into these things now (often with unrealistic expectations), I'm sure it doesn't take much of a loss for any flop to become a real problem.

Is anyone going to buy Bad Boys pyjamas or playsets? Once we get into movies for grown ups (using that term very loosely when it comes to Bad Boys), I'd say licensing opportunities can only bring so much revenue. And maybe that explains why so many of our movies are superhero/fantasy escapist brands these days. The Holdovers toys really didn't fly off the shelves.

[Neon Ignition]

There's so much the industry needs to do across all aspects to improve it's insane, the market shifted around them but they're so stagnant to that change and that includes the peripheral media such as news sites etc that can still impact a films earnings but often on poor reporting.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - Makes 2.4x its budget - HIT FILM!
The Exorcist: Believer - Makes 4.5x its budget - MEGA FLOP OF THE YEAR!

It's fine to not like the latter but it's just bad reporting to say it flopped and it happens a lot and feeds the narrative to audiences that there aren't films worth going to the cinema for which is part of how we get to where we are now. So many films in the past few months with decent to strong reviews that made embarrassingly low earnings because no-one turned out even though the screens weren't dominated by mega-franchises. It's a quiet year too, it should be fairly easy to stand out.

[QualityChimp]

Thanks again for running this, Supes, because it's been fascinating to see it play out.

I've tried to have an educated guess, basing my predicted box offices on the way the prequels or similar films performed and sometimes it's worked then other times I've been miles out.

Dune smashed it beyond everyone's expectations.
Godzilla x Kong follows a poor preceding film and lukewarm reviews, but smashed it.
PofApes is rarely cited as a "MUST SEE OMFG!" series, but romped to them box office dollars.

Then Furiosa has really stalled despite the previous film topping many people's "best action film" lists.
The Fall Guy has some nostalgia values, big-name leads and decent reviews, but headed to streaming pretty fast after poor cinema takings.

I do think that streaming has devalued both cinema and television.
The agony of waiting to wait another week for the next episode of something when it can all be binged.
Seeing a Marvel film come to the cinema, but you know it'll be streaming within a couple of months.

There used to be months and months between cinema release and home release and that added to the anticipation.
It'd get a cinema, then home video, then Sky then terrestrial release.

It used to be really exciting seeing what exclusives the BBC would be showing on Christmas Day.

I've been enjoying my renewed cinema pass, but I like the smaller crowds or with fellow cineastes that know how to sit and quietly watch a film without crunching snacks and checking their lighthouse-intensity phone screen every 2 minutes. I've mainly been seeing classics on the big screen, rather than a tidal wave of new releases.

[QualityChimp]

I know it's showbusiness, but I couldn't help but think of this thread yesterday where the make or break of a film is on its box office takings because it was the 32nd anniversary of The Thing and Blade Runner, both classed as box office failures that went on to redefine horror and sci-fi cinema and be revered for decades afterwards.

Having enjoyed The Fall Guy and Furiosa, I'd say if something looks fun, but is being hailed as a box office flop, just see it anyway.

[Dogg Thang]

Having enjoyed The Fall Guy and Furiosa, I'd say if something looks fun, but is being hailed as a box office flop, just see it anyway.

Totally. I actually saw a few people say "I was going to go see Furiosa but it's not doing well so I won't" which, to me, is the absolute weirdest take because it is allowing those who didn't see it to define a movie rather than those who actually did.

The next weirdest take on the list was from someone who had seen it and then listed a lot of plot points as reasons people didn't go to it, plot points only people who actually saw it could have known about.

[Neon Ignition]

We get a lot of prequels but without huge pre-existing brand power carrying them I can't think of one where audiences were keen, yet they keep happening