Heh, far too much maths in that birthday paradox for me! At least I can make sense of the Monty Hall one - which actually seems pretty logical. The birthday one, though, isn't simple enough for me to either think it sounds wrong or right. But, with their equations, I'll take their word for it.
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Little things that irk you.. (no swearing please)
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Originally posted by Flabio View PostI *hated* the probability part of my comp sci degree, I didn't get a lot of this down until years after graduation (and I've almost certainly got something wrong in this thread already...)Last edited by koopatroopa90; 27-07-2011, 23:29. Reason: missed out the word "question" as I'm an idiot.
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I failed the stats module in my first year. I thought it was all so easy I didn't bother revising and some stuff came up that I couldn't remember.
Since it was do not pass go module, I came back in the summer and did the retest after a bit of revision. Afterwards I was interrogated because they had assumed that somehow I had cheated - they said that if anything the retest was harder than the original paper and the fact that I'd got the best score they'd ever seen for the module compared to my previous fail-mark was tough for them to believe. I muttered something about the probability being the same etc.
A year later, I got up 30 mins into my (2nd year) exam and quit the course even though it was all pretty easy. Not sure why - it just wasn't my destiny.
I don't remember much, but the birthday thing is pretty obvious - it's not the chance of 1 person having the same birthday as 20 other people - it's the chance of 20 people having the same birthday as 19 other people all mixed up 19 times.
And the Monty Hall problem is also obvious once explained, although I didn't figure it out for myself.
Note: really clever stats tutors are never rich - knowing the odds doesn't help with the odds. The entire study of stats is about minimising risk, not about winning more than you lose.
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