United Kingdom V: Son of a beach

[MartyG]

I’m curious about this summer downturn idea. I’ve seen it said a few times but I haven’t found out why this would be or if scientists actually think this. What’s the idea behind it?

Scientists aren't saying that, they're saying they don't know:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233249-will-the-covid-19-coronavirus-outbreak-die-out-in-the-summers-heat/

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-warm-weather-probably-wont-snuff-out-covid-19-180974482/

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/covid-19-may-not-go-away-in-warmer-weather-as-do-colds/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/scientists-ask-could-summer-heat-help-beat-covid-19

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says.html

[Dogg Thang]

Scientists aren't saying that, they're saying they don't know:

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2233249-will-the-covid-19-coronavirus-outbreak-die-out-in-the-summers-heat/

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/why-warm-weather-probably-wont-snuff-out-covid-19-180974482/

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/04/covid-19-may-not-go-away-in-warmer-weather-as-do-colds/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/scientists-ask-could-summer-heat-help-beat-covid-19

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/its-...-who-says.html

Ah okay. Yeah, I was wondering if the idea was heat would stop it... but that would mean we shouldn’t see it take hold in any country that is as warm as the UK’s pretty mild summers. I guess we’ll see if it makes a difference.

[MartyG]

There's so much BS posted as fact it gets very difficult to wade through it, especially when much of the BS is coming from politicians.

I keep seeing that telephoto lenses compress perspective posted, so don't believe photographs which is complete horsewangs. This is an absolute myth borne from historical ignorance of how lenses work.

[Cepp]

No word from work as yet regarding working from the office again. I know my area manager can't wait for it though, he won't shut up about it.

I'm not sure how effective social distancing can really be in an office with air con tbh.

[Neon Ignition]

The downturn in summer mostly relates to the general usual annual downturn you get with cold viruses. Say COVID doesn't actually get a downturn over summer you'll still get the usual reduction in number of colds, flu's, winter viruses etc that lead everyone self-isolating to assume they have the virus (especially with testing levels being so poor) which will drive the perception that COVID is a smaller scale event than it is. If things reopen July-August then exposure will increase and we'll probably get a surge in confirmed cases come September at which point people start getting colds etc again and it becomes unmanageable but for Oct through May rather than the half season they've dealt with for wave one. All under the assumption that it's possible to go back to the old normal.

[Dogg Thang]

Say COVID doesn't actually get a downturn over summer you'll still get the usual reduction in number of colds, flu's, winter viruses etc that lead everyone self-isolating to assume they have the virus (especially with testing levels being so poor) which will drive the perception that COVID is a smaller scale event than it is..

I don't know if that really holds up if the numbers don't go down significantly, which will only happen if there is a genuine downturn in COVID. It relies on unified mass speculation based on possible changes in colds and flus, which I'm not convinced we'll see anyway because the measures put in place to reduce COVID spread will also have reduced the spread of cold and flus so, if anything, the easing of restrictions could lead to more colds and flus coming into summer than we've seen in the last 8 weeks. But whatever happens colds, I think perception of COVID lies in the numbers.

[Neon Ignition]

What we need is a control group to test infection rates on for the next month or so.... like... four year olds!

[MartyG]

News in from the office of national statistics show the highest mortality rates for occupations are in

Security Guards
Processing Plant workers
Taxi Drivers / Chauffeur
Construction Workers
Carers

Or in other words, people that are still going to work and mixing with other people. It doesn't really come as a surprise to me, that as someone working from home and NOT mixing with other people, my risk is lower.



So going back to earlier - if more people start going to work again and mingling with more people again, it doesn't take a genius virologist to work out what's going to happen.

Everytime I see stuff like this, the thing that crosses my mind is, "LV-426. No, it's a rock, no indigenous life"

Graphs from Today's numbers back the previous 69 days.(big spike is where they adjusted the counts)

[cutmymilk]

Considering it is sprearing through Africa, the heat theory is bull****. Especially also considering we just had about the best month weather wise we could hop for, everyone stayed in, and it STILL spread.

[Brad]

Word this morning from my firm is basically Boris is insane; stay at home; don’t listen to the government.

[gunrock]

By the way, Boris and his buffoons have carried on during this pandemic, it has confirmed my belief that humans will be sleepwalking their way through to the end in the last days of humanity, in utter denial. Whoever's in charge will be screaming about fake news, the British workforce being whingeing shirkers and to "Think of the economy!", whilst the airlines fly their planes overhead, burning the last of the breathable air to mix with the last remaining fossil fuel in one last gasp to provide a dividend to their shareholders.... whilst folks will be tweeting about how they can't get an Egg McMuffin at 10:32am because McDonalds don't sell them anymore in favour of eco-McRusks made from recycled pensioners depressing

[Brad]

Lmao ^^^^^
Sad but true.

[fishbowlhead]

Word this morning from my firm is basically Boris is insane; stay at home; don’t listen to the government.

By the way, Boris and his buffoons have carried on during this pandemic, it has confirmed my belief that humans will be sleepwalking their way through to the end in the last days of humanity, in utter denial. Whoever's in charge will be screaming about fake news, the British workforce being whingeing shirkers and to "Think of the economy!", whilst the airlines fly their planes overhead, burning the last of the breathable air to mix with the last remaining fossil fuel in one last gasp to provide a dividend to their shareholders.... whilst folks will be tweeting about how they can't get an Egg McMuffin at 10:32am because McDonalds don't sell them anymore in favour of eco-McRusks made from recycled pensioners depressing

It’s funny because its true.

[Neon Ignition]

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/may/11/headteachers-raise-concerns-over-reopening-of-english-primary-schools

Children returning to school in June would be kept in classes of no more than 15, not allowed to mingle between classes but wihtin their own could ignore social distancing rules. Parents will be strongly pushed to return their kids but local authorities cannot enforce attendance. Quite how schools are supposed to run so many classes if everyone sends their kid back is a fun question. Teaching unions remain annoyed.

[Mayhem]

There's no way we are sending Kathryn straight back to nursery if it reopens June 1. Prompts the question, most likely, of whether we will still have to pay for it if we veto her attendance.